Best NFL Win Total Bets: 7 Over/Under Picks
by Sam Cox
Win total bets aren’t just limited to a team’s widely publicized over/under line. Sportsbooks offer various other markets, including alternate lines and milestone marks like 10+ wins.
Here are our best NFL picks for the win total markets:
Atlanta Falcons Under 7.5 Wins (-145)
Yes, the Atlanta Falcons are in a weak division. Yes, they won eight games in 2025.
Still, the Falcons were 4-9 last season and their Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix pairing at quarterback undermines the rest of the offensive talent on this team.
The coaching staff has been revamped, and there are many changes to the defense. Maybe that works out for Atlanta.
It’s very much in play that the Falcons are 1-9 or 2-8 when they hit their bye week. If it’s a slow start to the season, Atlanta could turn its attention to enhancing their 2027 first-round pick in the hopes of finding a franchise quarterback.
Houston Texans Over 10.5 Wins (+125)
The defense projects to be the best in NFL again, and perhaps by a wide margin. On offense, it’s a big year for C.J. Stroud, who has received a vote of confidence from his head coach.
These Houston Texans have once again overhauled the offensive line in hope of giving Stroud a bit more time in the pocket. The bonus for Stroud is that he doesn’t need to be an MVP – Houston can be a legitimate contender with a slightly above average offense if they defense is as good as expected.
The Texans won 12 games last season and haven’t got markedly weaker during the offseason. We don’t need anything spectacular from Stroud to hit this over, and the fourth-year quarterback will be helped by the addition of David Montgomery, which should give the Texans a real running game.
Los Angeles Chargers Over 11.5 Wins (+250)
Justin Herbert has both of his tackles healthy. The defense was in the top 10 last year.
Mike McDaniel should bring inventiveness to the offense, and Chris O’Leary can carry on Jesse Minter’s work on the defensive side of the ball.
This is a highly talented roster, with Omarion Hampton and Ladd McConkey poised for big years as the primary rushing and pass-catching options in McDaniel’s offense. Herbert is a not-so-sneaky MVP contender.
Across the season, the Chargers have a significant rest disadvantage, but that’s not enough to put us off backing them for 12+ wins at +250.
New York Giants Under 6.5 Wins (+140)
An already appalling run defense has lost Dexter Lawrence. The secondary is a major concern. John Harbaugh’s arrival brings plenty of optimism, but there are more than a couple of reasons to be low on the New York Giants in 2026.
Malik Nabers, Cam Skattebo, and Jaxson Dart sounds like an exciting triumvirate. Nabers is coming off an ACL tear. Skattebo’s style is going to lead to injuries. Dart spent an alarming about of his rookie year in the medical tent.
The Giants, when healthy, will be fun to watch. They should be in plenty of shootouts. The early schedule is kind, with a 2-2 start looking realistic, but their schedule from Week 11 onwards looks brutal.
New Orleans Saints Over 9.5 Wins (+290)
A late-season surge behind Tyler Shough was no fluke. Brandon Staley also made strides with the defense in 2025, while the offense has been bolstered over the summer with Travis Etienne Jr. and David Edwards.
The New Orleans Saints begin their season with two difficult road games, but it’s not out of the question that they win their next five before their Week 8 bye. It’s a favorable schedule overall.
There’s uncertainty here. Maybe it’s a year early to tab the Saints as a playoff contender. At +290 for double digits wins, there’s still value given the upside New Orleans showcased down the stretch.
Minnesota Vikings Over 9.5 Wins (+190)
The Minnesota Vikings have 13- and 14-win seasons since Kevin O’Connell took over. They won nine games in 2025 with J.J. McCarthy making 10 starts.
Kyler Murray won’t make the Vikings into a Super Bowl-winning team, but he should provide better quarterback play than McCarthy. The defense was sixth in EPA allowed per play in 2025, and the offensive line looks like it can provide Murray enough protection to find Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison on a regular basis.
Minnesota has a +4 net rest edge for the season. The late-season schedule is pretty favorable to help the Vikings reach 10+ wins again.
San Francisco 49ers Under 9.5 Wins (+110)
The San Francisco 49ers have had double-digit wins in four of the last five seasons. They won 12 games last year, despite Fred Warner and Nick Bosa missing most of the season.
San Francisco’s schedule features seven games they should win. Claiming three other wins won’t be straight-forward, though, with four against the Seattle Seahawks and the Los Angeles Rams, plus the Chargers, Kansas City Chiefs, and Philadelphia Eagles.
The ceiling of the Niners remains high with Mike Evans joining a star-studded, veteran roster. There’s no escaping the fact that injuries will be a problem again, however. That’s why there’s value taking the under.
All odds courtesy of FanDuel.
