Best NBA Play-In First Round Player Props
by Sam Cox | by Tyler Doty
With the regular season wrapped up, the NBA play-in tournament takes center stage in this week's free NBA tips.
Kawhi Leonard, Steph Curry, Bam Adebayo, and LaMelo Ball are some of the stars involved in the play-in. Tuesday sees the Hornets face the Heat in an elimination game before the Suns and Blazers duel to see who matches up with the Spurs in the first round.
Wednesday has an elimination game between the Warriors and Clippers, which follows the seven-eight clash of the Sixers and Magic.
Here are the best player props for Tuesday and Wednesday’s games:
Kon Knueppel Under 5.5 Rebounds (-172)
Kon Knueppel has gone under this line in five out of six games in April. He’s grabbed only 15 rebounds in four games against the Heat and has gone under this line in three out of four meetings.
Miami is quietly above average as a rebounding team in 2026. They have plenty of size, often having Adebayo and Kel’el Ware on the court at the same time. Andrew Wiggins can crank up his rebounding rate in the playoffs, too.
Miles Bridges Over 1.5 Made Threes (+122)
Since March 4, Miles Bridges has taken 4.2 threes per game. Miami is below average in opponent three-point rate and Bridges could be more effective as a floor spacer than finisher if he can track Adebayo or Ware away from the basket.
Bridges has gone over this line 38 times in 77 regular-season games. That’s a good hit rate when we’re getting odds of +122.
Dillon Brooks Under 1.5 Made Threes (+140)
In six games since returning from injury, Dillon Brooks has gone under this line four times in six games. A 4-for-5 performance was very much an outlier – Brooks has shot under 34% from downtown on his comeback.
Only four teams concede a lower three-point rate than the Blazers. Brooks is a candidate to take 25+ shots in a high-stakes game like this, but Portland has the personnel and scheme to keep his three-point shot under control.
Toumani Camara Over 4.5 Rebounds (-154)
Toumani Camara averaged 5.8 rebounds last season and 5.1 in 2025-26. It’s hard to see why his line is at 4.5 against a Phoenix team that has ranked 20th in rebounding rate since the turn of the year.
Camara is a candidate to play 40+ minutes on Tuesday. He played all 82 regular-season games and has a key role to play in Portland’s defense. Of those 82, he had over 4.5 rebounds on 45 occasions.
Paolo Banchero Over 32.5 Points and Rebounds (-122)
For all his flaws, Paolo Banchero has impressed in the playoffs. He’s consistently generated offense and has gone over this line in seven of his last eight postseason appearances.
Yes, the play-in isn’t technically a playoff game, but the stakes are the same and the quality of opponent is similar. Banchero is facing a Sixers team that has been abysmal on the boards and doesn’t have the size at the forward spots to guard him.
Tyrese Maxey 8+ Assists (+265)
Tyrese Maxey has registered eight or more assists in five of his last nine games. Embiid’s absence could force Maxey into carrying the scoring burden himself, or it will mean he is forced to be even more of a playmaker with Orlando selling out to stop him.
Since the All-Star break, Maxey has averaged more potential assists than LaMelo Ball, LeBron James, and Jamal Murray. Eight assists is a very attainable target.
Steph Curry Under 26.5 Points (-106)
Why would the Warriors overexert themselves in this play-in tournament? Steve Kerr has made it clear he won’t be pushing Steph Curry or his other veterans to big minutes.
If the Dubs fall behind by double digits, don’t be surprised if Kerr pulls the plug prematurely to preserve Curry and co. There’s every chance Curry plays less than 30 minutes and scores under 20 points in this one.
Brandin Podziemski Over 13.5 Points (-125)
The flip side of that is Brandin Podziemski. The much-maligned guard has gone over this line in 10 of his last 11 games and averaged more than 20 points per game over that span.
There are going to be passages of this game where Podziemski is initiating the offense, regardless of Curry’s workload. Ignore the 10 points against the Clips on Sunday – Podziemski is going to get more minutes and more shots on Wednesday.
