NBA: Analyzing the Giannis Trade Market Following Lillard’s Achilles Tear
by Sam Cox | by Tyler Doty
Speculation about a Giannis Antetokounmpo trade has been a staple of NBA discourse for half a decade. The Milwaukee Bucks built a championship roster around the two-time MVP by acquiring Jrue Holiday in a blockbuster trade and tried to pull the same move when they landed Damian Lillard.
It’s not worked out that way. Milwaukee has now lost in the first round in three consecutive seasons. Lillard and Giannis haven’t developed the expected chemistry as a tandem, and the former has suffered a torn Achilles which will likely keep him out for the entirety of the 2025-26 season.
A.J. Green, Antetokounmpo, Lillard, and Kyle Kuzma are the only current Bucks under contract for next season. Bobby Portis and Pat Connaughton are likely to pick up their player options, too, giving little to no financial flexibility for the front office.
Milwaukee is sending out its 2025 and 2029 first-round picks. A combination of the New Orleans Pelicans and Portland Trail Blazers have swap rights to Milwaukee’s 2026, 2027, 2028, and 2030 first rounders.
Trading Giannis and tanking isn’t an option. Antetokounmpo, who is at worst the third-best player in the league and has finished in the top four in MVP voting in seven consecutive seasons, is surely considering asking out as he looks ahead to his age-31 season. The Bucks haven’t been a title contender with Lillard. Without him, they are likely a play-in team in 2025-26.
With all of their picks owed elsewhere, a potential Giannis trade needs to land Milwaukee talent that can help them immediately. This means young, NBA-proven players to give something to build around.
Twenty-nine NBA teams would be improved by adding Antetokounmpo. Only a handful have the assets to compile a package that might intrigue Milwaukee’s front office this summer.
All-In Move For Space City
The Houston Rockets have a catalogue of future first-round picks, including a swap with the Brooklyn Nets and incoming picks from the Phoenix Suns. After landing the Western Conference’s second seed in 2024-25, Houston was knocked out in seven games in the first round.
The Rockets are blessed with perhaps the NBA’s deepest roster. They don’t have an elite talent to build around, which was a major issue on offense during the playoffs. Fred VanVleet is overtaxed in his current role, and Jalen Green has not developed as hoped.
Houston could send Green, Jock Landale, Reed Shephard, and Cam Whitmore to the Bucks with the Phoenix Sun’s 2027 first, and their own first-rounders in 2028 and 2031. This gives Milwaukee a floor-raising talent in Green plus upside in Shephard and Whitmore, while restocking the Bucks’ future picks.
Front Office Pop Pairs Euro Superstars
Gregg Popovich’s Hall of Fame head coaching stint has come to an end, but the San Antonio Spurs’ leadership remains the same with RC Buford and Brian Wright running the show, aided by their new team president.
San Antonio was in the play-in mix before Victor Wembanyama was ruled out with deep vein thrombosis. The De’Aaron Fox trade showed they are ready to be aggressive to build a contender around Wembanyama. Even after the Fox deal, they have plenty of assets to swing for the fences, including future Atlanta Hawks picks and other swaps.
A package of Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, and multiple future firsts could be appealing to the Bucks. Vassell might flourish if given the keys to Milwaukee’s offense. Johnson is still only 25. San Antonio can offer short- and long-term first-round picks.
Grizzlies Offer Ja
For all the talk and hype, the Memphis Grizzlies have won one playoff series in the Ja Morant era. Swept in the first round and only managing to sneak in as the eighth seed in the west, Memphis sacked Taylor Jenkins a matter of days before the playoffs.
Does the front office dare to sell low on Morant? After years of relative passivity, is Giannis the star they go all-in for?
Milwaukee could convince itself of a dice roll on the under-contract Morant. Zach Edey or Brandon Clarke would be an intriguing secondary player in the deal, which could be accompanied by numerous future firsts.
The Grizz would have Giannis, Desmond Bane, and Jaren Jackson Jr. as their new Big Three. The Bucks could try to unlock the Morant that looked destined for MVP contention a few years ago.
Magic Lean Further Into Identity
The Orlando Magic need shot creation and shooting. Antetokounmpo would be a clunky fit with Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner (though one of them would surely need to be included in the deal). The Magic have historically prioritized size and defense, though, so maybe they talk themselves into a trade for Giannis if they can partner him with Banchero and Jalen Suggs.
This is the least likely of the four teams discussed. Orlando isn’t going to be in a rush to split up Banchero and Wagner. Their offense would be improved with Giannis, but their spacing would perhaps get even worse unless they somehow added a couple of knockdown outside shooters, too.
