Week 6 MNF: Player Props for Bills vs Falcons

by Tyler Doty

image Week 6 MNF: Player Props for Bills vs Falcons
The Bills take on the Falcons in Week 6's MNF doubleheader. Prop plays are harder to hit when the teams aren’t showing any kind of consistency, but there are still a few good ones to try. Here are some of your best options.
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Almost nobody expected Buffalo’s first loss to come last week to New England. The Bills’ performance called several things into question, most notably whether they are really that good. Buffalo is 4-1, but it isn’t an impressive 4-1 by any means. Between them, the four teams the Bills have beaten are 3-17.

On the other side, inconsistency, thy name is Atlanta. The Falcons pulled off a great win over the Commanders at home last time out and blitzed the Vikings in Minneapolis two weeks before that. In between, they lost 30-0 to the Panthers. That’s how the Falcons have been for a while, and it’s something they’ll have to fix if they want to make a playoff run.

Dalton Kincaid, Over 49.5 Passing Yards (+156, DraftKings)

The Bills are leading the league in receiving yards out of their tight ends. Kincaid has been a large part of that, as Josh Allen clearly loves going to him when needed. Allen has targeted Kincaid on better than one in five passes when Kincaid doesn’t stay in to block, so if he’s going out for a pass, there’s a good chance it’s going his way.

However, this is a situation to monitor closely, as Kincaid has been limited in practice this week. If he’s unable to go, Dawson Knox might be a good prop in his absence. He won’t be as effective as Kincaid, but Buffalo still loves going to its tight end no matter who it is. Make sure you’re paying attention before you make this play.

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Tyler Allgeier, Over 29.5 Rushing Yards (-114, FanDuel)

Allgeier usually gets his touches in the Falcons’ offense. Atlanta lost him in the Panthers debacle and only got him one carry, but he touched it 16 times each against Washington and Minnesota. The Falcons clearly want to get the most out of both of their backs. But Bijan Robinson soaks up so much attention that teams, fantasy owners and bettors sometimes forget about Allgeier.

Allgeier has scored in both Falcons victories, and at +200 for an anytime score, he represents solid value to find the end zone if you’re looking that way. As long as Atlanta doesn’t get beaten into submission from the opening whistle — which shouldn’t happen coming off a bye — you can expect Allgeier to find a role here.  

Josh Allen Under 231.5 Passing Yards (-113, DraftKings)

Josh Allen put up massive numbers against Baltimore in Week 1. He hasn’t really done all that much through the air ever since. Take out that one game, and Allen is averaging just 205.8 yards per game through the air.

Statistically, Atlanta offers the top passing defense in the NFL. It’s uncertain as to how good the Falcons really are, because they’ve only faced one veteran quarterback this year in Baker Mayfield. But the Falcons haven’t bent yet on the pass, and Allen really isn’t doing what he normally does.

There’s more: Atlanta’s commitment to its ground game is likely to limit Allen’s opportunities. The Falcons want to keep the clock running and keep the ball in their hands. If they do, Allen will be hard-pressed to hit this number.

NFL Picks