ATP Washington: Our Tournament Picks
by Bradley Gibbs | by Bradley Gibbs
Can the home contingent keep the trophy stateside?
Sebastian Korda’s 2024 win meant that an American name was etched into the Washington Open trophy for the first time since 2007. Korda won’t be back for a crack at retention, but there are plenty of US players in the draw, so could we have another home winner?
Leading the charge for the home contingent will be Taylor Fritz, who must shoulder the burden of being the top seed. As such, Fritz bypasses the first round, though he’s not likely to get an easy run, with players such as Andrey Rublev, Ben Shelton and Frances Tiafoe all on his side of the draw.
Both Tiafoe and Shelton will be looking to go deep into the action in Washington this week, let’s be honest. The former, who reached the semis a year ago, is the sixth seed, while the latter comes into this event as the fourth seed having also reached the semi-finals in 2024.
Fighting for US glory will also be Brandon Nakashima, who is a decent hard-court player, but does he really have strong enough credentials to cut it with the big boys this week? His record in ATP 1000 events would suggest not. Alex Michelsen has an ATP 250 hard-court final on his CV, and he too will be hoping to play well this week, though glory at this level still looks some way off for the 20-year-old.
Other US names in the draw this week include Learner Tien, Aleksandar Kovacevic, Jenson Brooksby and Mackenzie McDonald, who has won an ATP Tour hard-court event in the US before and who has previously reached the final of this tournament, doing so back in 2021, though he’s struggled since, that’s for sure.
Reilly Opelka, who booked his place in the draw thanks to coming through the qualifiers, is very much the sort of player capable of causing an upset, and the big-serving giant has reached the final of ATP 1000 event on a hard surface previously, so look out for him this week.
Bet on Ben Shelton to go all the way
Taylor Fritz heads the outright betting ahead of this tournament, and let’s face it, that’s fair enough, though is there any value in odds of +350? For my money, the answer is no.
Conversely, there’s very much some value to be had by betting on Ben Shelton to secure glory at odds of +650. The world number nine showed strong form at Wimbledon, while we know how difficult he can be to face on a hard surface, especially back in the states.
The 22-year-old has shown in the last year or so that he can raise his game on the big occasion, reaching the semi-finals at the Aussie Open back in January, while he was far from disgraced by losing to the eventual tournament winner in the quarters at Wimbledon, pushing one of the best in the business very hard early on. That showing in London tells us that the explosive youngster has his game in good order, so we really should see a confident Shelton take to the court in Washington, and a confident Shelton should be feared by all, especially as there’s no Djokovic, Alcaraz or Sinner in the draw.
It’s not as if the two-time ATP Tour winner hasn’t had a practice run in Washington, and what a practice run it was. Playing in the tournament for just the second time in 2024, Shelton reached the semi-finals. With that positive experience under his belt, having improved since, he can now go all the way.
Sure, it may be that Taylor Fritz justifies being both the top seed and the pre-tournament favorite, but odds of +350 are too skinny for my liking, especially when someone like Shelton ticks so many boxes. Take the +650, that’s my advice.
Our ATP Washington Pick: Ben Shelton to win the title.
