ATP Paris Masters: Tournament Preview and Picks
by Bradley Gibbs | by Tyler Doty
A venue change
Previously, this tournament was played on the Boulevard de Bercy, using the Accor Arena, but ahead of 2025, a venue change was confirmed.
This year, the Paris Masters will take place at La Défense Arena, which is located in Nanterre, a western suburb of Paris. The new venue is larger than the old one, featuring four match courts instead of two.
Confirmed as the second-largest permanent tennis court on the planet, the centre court at La Défense Arena will hold no fewer than 17,500 spectators, which ought to generate a fabulous atmosphere, while Court 1 and Court 1 will house around 4,000 fans, leaving Court 4 as the smallest, providing around 500 seats for spectators.
All of the new courts at the new venue of La Défense Arena are situated indoors, making this an indoor hard-court tournament. Those who follow ATP and WTA tennis closely will know that indoor hard-court tournaments can be very different from outdoor hard-court tournaments.
A serious tournament for serious players
The Grand Slams are done and dusted for 2025, but that doesn’t mean that the big-name players have little left to fight for, oh no. This is an ATP 1000 event, and let’s face it, we’re talking about a prestigious tournament, one that has been won by some of the best to ever do it.
Last year, Alexander Zverev reigned supreme, beating Frenchman Ugo Humbert in the final, while it was the legendary Novak Djokovic who claimed the prize in 2023, winning the event for a seventh time following a first success back in 2009.
Other winners of the Parisian event include Pete Sampras, Andre Agassi, Roger Federer and Andy Murray, further showcasing that this is no small-time tournament. It’s a big prize, one that the biggest and best players want to get their hands on.
What does the betting market say?
As is now the norm for tournaments containing both the world number one and the world number two, the futures market ahead of this event is absolutely dominated by Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz.
Here are the pre-tournament odds for the Paris Masters from our top sportsbooks:
Jannik Sinner +125
Carlos Alcaraz +150
Alexander Zverev +1000
Taylor Fritz +1500
Alex De Minaur +1800
Ben Shelton +2500
Daniil Medvedev +2800
Lorenzo Musetti +5000
All other players +6500 or greater.
When Sinner and Alcaraz are both due to take to the courts, even high-profile players such as Alexander Zverev and Taylor Fritz are given only a small chance by the futures market, such is the level that the top two can bring.
If the early market has this right, then there’s around an 84.4% chance that either Carlos Alcaraz or Jannik Sinner will win this event. In other words, success for either the world number one or the world number two is something like a bet at odds of -541. Would you go against such odds?
Zero wins despite numerous attempts
Somewhat strangely, this is an event that has never been won by Jannik Sinner, while Carlos Alcaraz has also failed to come out on top.
Of course, we shouldn’t focus too much on past events, especially as the venue has now changed, but it is worth mentioning that neither player has won this tournament before, which is interesting given that the futures betting market is entirely dominated by these two players.
Jannik Sinner has played in this event three times before, losing in the first round back in 2022, before reaching the third round in 2023. In 2024, Sinner could only manage to reach the second round, losing out to none other than Carlos Alcaraz.
For the Spaniard, the Paris Masters has been a little kinder, but not much. Alcaraz has never gone out in the first round, but he has twice exited at the third-round stage, also losing in the second round back in 2023, while he reached the quarters in 2022.
Carlos can have it his way this time
As touched on above, Carlos Alcaraz has never won the Paris Masters, but 2025 could be the Spaniard’s year. Why? Well, the venue change should suit Alcaraz’s game, let’s be honest.
In the build up to the event, the current world number one commented:
It’s totally different from last year. It’s much slower, but I like it this way. We can see real tennis, with long rallies and not just serves and short points. For me, it’s a really good speed. I’ve always said that I prefer slower courts.
Let’s be real, if Alcaraz likes the conditions, then everyone else should be fearful. Some tournament conditions don’t particularly suit the Spaniard, but everything about the set-up at La Défense Arena should play to the strengths of the six-time Grand Slam champion, who is absolutely there for the top prize.
It’s highly likely that if Alcaraz does prove to be right about enjoying the conditions, we’ll see the Spaniard take on Sinner in the final, and of course, if that happens, the Italian could absolutely win, but we’ve seen before, including at Roland Garros earlier this year, that the Spaniard enjoys long-drawn out matches much more than Sinner, and the conditions is Paris this week will allow Alcaraz to make it that sort of match. On this basis, it is Alcaraz who ought to be the narrow tournament favourite and not Sinner.
