ATP Masters Toronto: Tournament Preview and Picks
by Bradley Gibbs | by Bradley Gibbs
Big names in the draw
We won’t be seeing either Carlos Alcaraz or Jannik Sinner this week, while veteran Novak Djokovic continues to pick and choose his events carefully, ruling this one out. However, it’s still a star-studded line-up in Toronto, with players such as Alexander Zverev, Andrey Rublev, Daniil Medvedev, Ben Shelton, Frances Tiafoe, Taylor Fritz, Alex De Minaur, Casper Ruud, Holger Rune and Lorenzo Musetti all set to play.
Six of the current top ten players according to the ATP Rankings will feature in Toronto this week, while 14 of the top 20 will be involved. This is an event that the best in the business want to take seriously there’s no doubt about that.
Top dogs love this tournament
Let’s be honest, this is a big event, so it’s not exactly surprising that big-name players tend to thrive. We did see a bit of an upset last season, with Alexei Popyrin getting the job done, beating Andrey Rublev in the final, but in 2023, Jannik Sinner came out on top, and if a player of that quality is winning, then you know it’s a serious tournament.
Sinner is far from the only big-name player to win this tournament in recent years. We’ve seen the likes of Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray lift the trophy since 2015.
It’s not impossible for somebody ranked outside of the upper echelons to go all the way at this event, but as the list below shows, high-ranking players tend to do well.
Here are the last ten winners of this prize, complete with their ATP ranking at the time:
2024 - Alexei Popyrin (Ranked 62nd)
2023 - Jannik Sinner (Ranked 4th)
2022 - Pablo Carreno Busta (Ranked 23rd)
2021 - Daniil Medvedev (Ranked 2nd)
2019 - Rafael Nadal (Ranked 1st)
2018 - Rafael Nadal (Ranked 2nd)
2017 - Alexander Zverev (Ranked 11th)
2016 - Novak Djokovic (Ranked 1st)
2015 - Andy Murray (Ranked 3rd)
2014 - Jo-Wilfred Tsonga (Ranked 15th)
As we can see, only one of the last ten winners of this event were ranked outside of the top 25 at the time of their victory. Six of the last ten were ranked inside the top five at the time of their Toronto success.
Is there a value futures bet?
With so many top players in the draw this week, this is anything but an easy one to call, and I’m not going to try. That said, I do think there’s some value to be had by betting on Daniil Medvedev at chunky odds.
Am I saying that the former world number one will get the job done and come out on top? Absolutely not. What I am saying is that there are more than enough positives to consider betting on him at odds bigger than they possibly could be.
Let’s be real, Daniil Medvedev loves hard-court tennis, with 18 of his ATP Tour successes coming on a hard surface. All six of his Grand Slam final appearances have come in hard-court tournaments too, three of which were on US soil (US Open), while five of his 18 tournament wins have come in the states too.
It’s true that the Russian has gone off the boil a bit in recent times, with him now not winning a tournament in more than two years, but he’s shown signs of life in recent weeks, while a return to a venue that he likes could easily spark a revival. After all, there’s no Carlos Alcaraz or Jannik Sinner in the draw this week, so somebody like Daniil Medvedev should definitely by eying up a big run.
At the end of the day, Alexander Zverev is a worthy top seed and a worthy favorite in the pre-tournament market, but the German isn’t infallible, with Medvedev getting the better of him as recently as last month.
We’ve also seen the Russian play well in the US this season, with him reaching the semis at the Indian Wells event back in March, while we know he can play well in Toronto, with him finishing as the runner-up in 2019, before winning the tournament in 2021.
Ultimately, back on courts that suit his game and have helped him to thrive in the not so distant past, Medvedev is a viable option for those looking for a slice of pre-tournament value.
Our ATP Masters Toronto Pick: Daniil Medvedev to win the title.
