AFCON 2025: Where is the pre-tournament value?

by Bradley Gibbs | by Bradley Gibbs

image AFCON 2025: Where is the pre-tournament value?
On Sunday, the latest edition of the African Cup of Nations will begin. Before things get underway in Morocco, check out these interesting pre-tournament picks.

Are the hosts too short in the outright market? 

There’s been plenty of talk about whether or not the tournament hosts are worthy of their strong favoritism ahead of this tournament, and as we can see below, they are strongly fancied by the early market.

Here’s the current outright betting ahead of AFCON from our top sportsbooks: 

  • Morocco +275

  • Egypt +550

  • Algeria +600

  • Senegal +600

  • Nigeria +900

  • Tunisia +1200

  • Mali +1200

  • Ivory Coast +1200

  • All other nations +1600 or bigger. 

Over the last week or so, I’ve seen a few people suggesting that the Atlas Lions are too short in the pre-tournament betting, but for my money, this just isn't true. In fact, I think when we stack everything up, the men coached by Walid Regragui could easily be a bit shorter, and on that basis, I make them a value bet to go all the way. 

The Moroccans have the luxury of playing on home soil, and sure, that doesn’t always turn out to be as significant as many people would assume it would be. After all, when AFCON was last played, the Ivory Coast became the first nation to secure the prize on home turf since 2006. 

However, as far as I’m concerned, the Atlas Lions are more than good enough to make the most of playing on familiar soccer fields. After all, not only are we talking about a team stacked with top-tier talent, but this is also a team that has become very, very good at grinding out results, avoiding defeat in each of the last 17, winning 14 of those, keeping an eye-catching 11 clean sheets. 

Let’s not also ignore that as a soccer nation, Morocco has been coming to the boil for a little while now. The Atlas Lions showed what they’re all about when reaching the FIFA World Cup semi-finals back in 2022, while they sent a strong team to the Olympics in 2024, reaching the semi finals, while their youngsters recently won the U20 World Cup. Make no mistake about it, this is a nation that has been gearing up for major success for a while. 

With a solid core, a UEFA Champions League winning leader, no shortage of silky creators, and a couple of proven goal scorers, the Atlas Lions are the real deal, so much so that I’m betting them to go all the way at odds of +275 (DraftKings). Frankly, I’d bet them to get the job done at anything bigger than +200. 

Outright Pick: Morocco to Win AFCON 

Other value picks ahead of AFCON

Here’s another pre-tournament bet that may just offer a slice of value:

Nigeria to Reach the Semi Final: +175 with DraftKings

nigeria

The Nigerians have a strong squad, a squad that is full of experienced campaigners, while we’re talking about a team that knows how to go deep into a tournament, with most of these players playing a big part in Nigeria’s run to the final when the African Cup of Nations was last played. 

Perhaps not overly sturdy at the back, the Super Eagles have more than enough offensive talent to blast their way out of the groups and into the quarters, where they’ll likely face an Algerian team that probably isn’t quite as strong as it was a few years ago. 

Once they’ve made light work of getting out of a group containing Tanzania, Tunisia, and Uganda, am I backing the Nigerians to make it through just one game to reach the last four? At odds of +175, absolutely I am. 

With players like Alex Iwobi, Wiflred Ndidi, Victor Osimhen, Ademola Lookman and the hugely in-form Samuel Chukwueze to call upon, the Super Eagles can soar.