Best Player Prop Bets For Week 3 of the NFL Season
by Sam Cox
It’s been a mixed bag with our player prop bets across the first two weeks of the NFL season. Each week gives us more data to inform our selections, though, and we’ve had eight quarters to learn about how each offense is sharing its workload and how each defense is performing.
Week 3 brings an opportunity to place some high-value NFL player props. We have a handle on which offenses need to change, and which defenses are candidates to concede 30+ points.
Here are our five best NFL player prop bets for Week 3, with odds from FanDuel Sportsbook:
Tyler Allgeier Over 10.5 Rushing Attempts (-112)
The first of our NFL picks for Week 3 takes us to the dynamic offense of the Atlanta Falcons against the struggling Carolina Panthers.
Only five defenses have allowed more yards per rushing attempt than Carolina. Exactly half of Atlanta’s plays have been rushes, which is tied for the fourth-highest mark in the NFL.
Tyler Allgeier has 26 rushing attempts through the first two weeks of the season. He rushed the ball 16 times in Week 2, taking on the brunt of the workload in the second half when Bijan Robinson was showing signs of fatigue.
Atlanta is a 5.5-point favorite on the road. Their offense should be able to build a lead against these Panthers. The game script will favor the Falcons running the ball, and Allgeier clearly has a big role in this offense.
Drake Maye 250+ Passing Yards (+178)
What has happened to the Pittsburgh Steelers’ defense? They have the most missed tackles in the NFL, sit middle of the pack in quarterback hurries, and are tied with the New England Patriots for the second-most net yards allowed per pass attempt.
Drake Maye struggled in Week 1, throwing the ball 46 times for 287 yards. In Week 2, he looked more like the player we saw in the second half of last season, with 230 passing yards on 19-for-23.
Just five teams have conceded more air yards on completions than the Steelers. Mike Vrabel is happy to let Maye air it out – this is a good value bet.
Cam Ward Under 202.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Cam Ward has 112 passing yards on debut and 175 passing yards in Week 2. Just six teams have conceded fewer passing yards than the Indianapolis Colts thus far.
Very few teams have been efficient in all aspects of passing defense as the Colts. Their pressure rate isn’t crazily high, but their linebackers and secondary have excelled in coverage.
Ward’s Tennessee Titans offense isn’t blessed with elite playmakers. He’s throwing the ball frequently, but this line still seems slightly high with how the Colts have performed on D so far.
Baker Mayfield Over 32.5 Passing Attempts (-108)
Baker Mayfield had 32 attempts in Week 1 and 38 in Week 2. The New York Jets are a bottom-10 pass defense so far this season, which should encourage the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to throw the ball.
Tampa has a selection of receivers, including the ever-reliable Mike Evans, for Mayfield to target. Bucky Irving will get a few targets out of the backfield, too, just as he did in the first two games of the season.
Mayfield should be able to march his Bucs down the field. Look for plenty of air yards from the former first overall pick.
Keenan Allen Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Keenan Allen looks like he’s still got some gas left in the tank. Returns of 68 and 61 receiving yards over the first two games of the season show Allen has a bigger role than expected in this humming Los Angeles Chargers offense.
Leading the team in receptions and on the field for 58.5% of offensive snaps so far, Justin Herbert clearly trusts Allen. It has hampered Ladd McConkey’s production, but that’s no concern with this prop.
Sportsbooks are yet to adapt to Allen’s surprising role in the Chargers’ receiving corps. Take advantage by backing this over.
