2025 UEFA Conference League Final: Blues hoping to enjoy same fate as previous favorites
by Bradley Gibbs | by Bradley Gibbs
How did the teams get here?
Despite this being Enzo Maresca’s first season in charge, Chelsea were always expected to go far in the UEFA Conference League, such is the European pedigree that the West London club has, winning the UEFA Champions League not once, but twice since 2012. They’ve also won the Europa League twice during that time, so yeah, it’s not surprising that the Blues made light work of making it out of the League Phase, winning six out of six.
Having breezed through the first part of the competition, the Londoners weren’t likely to struggle against FC Copenhagen, though they perhaps won in more low-key fashion than many would’ve expected, securing single-goal victories both home and away.
Poland’s Legia Warsaw came next, and it was job done after the first leg, with Chelsea winning by three goals to zero in the Polish capital, which was just as well as they stuttered at home in the return leg, losing by two goals to one, though there was never really any danger of them not going through. Finally, it was plain sailing in the semi-finals, with the boys from Stamford Bridge beating Swedish outfit Djurgarden 5-1 on aggregate.
Spanish teams also have a rich recent history in UEFA competitions, so it’s also fair to say that Real Betis were definitely among the more fancied teams back at the start of the competition. However, while the Blues qualified directly for the Round of 16 thanks to finishing top of the League Phase pile, the Andalusians were forced to feature in the knockout play-offs having finished 15th courtesy of three wins, a tie and two losses.
After delivering some relatively underwhelming League Phase efforts, though, Manuel Pellegrini’s men stepped on the gas to defeat Gent, before beating Guimaraes of Portugal 6-2 on aggregate in the Round of 16, setting up a date with Polish opposition Jagiellonia, which proved to be nothing more than the Spaniards could handle.
That 3-1 aggregate win over Jagiellonia, was followed by a semi-final tie against 2022 and 2023 finalists Fiorentina, who remained very much in the hunt after losing 2-1 in Seville, and when the Italians reversed the score in Florence, winning by two goals to one, they seemed to have the momentum to go and get over the line. Enter Abde Ezzalsouli, whose extra-time finish sent Betis into a first ever continental final.
Fate of the favorites
Ahead of this game, it is the English team that is heavily favored in the betting, and although this competition isn’t very old, favorites have a positive record. Roma were favored in the betting ahead of the inaugural Conference League final back in 2022, beating Feyenoord by a goal to zero when priced at +140 to do so.
In 2023, West Ham justified narrow favoritism, beating Fiorentina in a dramatic fashion when Jarrod Bowen latched onto a through ball, before stabbing under the onrushing keeper in the 90th minute.
In 2024, the men from the Italian city of Florence were back for a second bite of the cherry, though they once again left without satisfying their appetite, this time failing to win in regulation time, before losing in extra time, despite starting the game against Olympiacos of Greece as +125 favorites.
Interestingly, on Wednesday night, Betis, who stopped Fiorentina from featuring in three consecutive finals with that recent semi-final victory, will bid to become the biggest priced final winner in Conference League history, with the Spaniards currently priced around the +333 mark to get over the line in regulation time.
Conference League stat leaders on show
On Wednesday night, those lucky enough to be in attendance in the city of Wrocław will witness some of the highest-performing players that this season’s renewal of the Conference League has had to offer.
Don’t forget to watch out for the following players, all of whom rank very highly in a number of individual areas:
- Cedric Bakambu (Real Betis) - Ranked 1st in the Conference League this season for non-penalty goals, expected goals and shots on target.
- Marc Guiu (Chelsea) - Ranked 1st in the Conference League this season for shots on target per 90 minutes, shots per 90 minutes and goals and assists per 90 minutes.
- Jaden Sancho (Chelsea) - ranked 1st in the Conference League this season for assists per 90 minutes.
- Sergi Altimira (Real Betis) - Ranked 1st in the Conference League this season for shots on target percentage. Ranked 3rd for dribblers tackled. Also ranked 4th and 5th for tackles won and tackles respectively.
- Tosin Adarabioyo (Chelsea) - Ranked 1st in the Conference League this season for progressive passing distance and pass completion percentage.
- Giovani Lo Celso (Real Betis) - Ranked 1st in the Conference League this season for shot-creating actions per 90 minutes.
- Natan (Real Betis) - Ranked 1st in the Conference League this season for clearances.
- Abde Ezzalzouli (Real Betis) - Ranked 1st in the Conference League this season for carries into the penalty area. Also ranked 2nd for progressive carries.
- Aitor Ruibal (Real Betis) - Ranked 1st in the Conference League for yellow cards received.
Can we turn any of this into a betting opportunity? I think we can. Based on some slightly generous-looking early odds, here are some player props to spice up this cup final.
Cedric Bakambu to Score & Cedric Bakambu to Get a Card
One of Betis’ key men on the continent this season, Cedric Bakambu may have missed out on a starting spot on Wednesday if recent arrival Cucho Hernandez was registered to play in this competition. As mentioned in our Betis vs Chelsea prediction, and fortunately for the Congolese striker, the Colombian cannot feature, so it will almost certainly be down to the man who has netted seven Conference League goals to lead the line for the Andalusians.
Given his form in Europe this season, at odds of +300, Bakambu looks a little generously priced to find the net, while I also cannot resist betting on the hard-hitting forward to pick up a card, especially with odds of +400 available.
His scoring credentials are there for all to see. No player has scored more non-penalty goals than Bakambu, who is averaging 0.67 goals per 90 minutes in this competition and who has found the net five times in the knockout stages.
Let’s be honest, though, the 34-year-old is no stranger to mixing it physically, so don’t be surprised if he gets in trouble on the big occasion. Interestingly, in all competitions, no Betis player has made more fouls than Bakambu this season, with the forward averaging no less than 2.51 fouls per 90 minutes. He’s also picked up an average of 0.30 cards per 90, making odds of +400 (= 20% implied probability) look too good to turn down.
