Five Best NFL Win Total Bets
by Sam Cox
Before fans get stuck into NFL picks for Week 1 of the regular season, bettors are trying to decide whether to take the over or under on preseason NFL win totals. Training camps and preseason action have given us more information to analyze when trying to predict each team’s final regular-season record.
Which teams made the most progress this offseason? Which front offices made missteps in the draft and free agency?
Here are the five best NFL win total bets for the 2025 regular season, with odds and lines provided by the FanDuel Sportsbook.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over 9.5 Wins (+100)
Lavonte David, Ben Bredeson, and Chris Godwin were re-signed. Haason Reddick is a worthwhile to flier to improve Tampa Bay’s pass rush, even after a disrupted 2024 season.
The Buccaneers won 10 games last season, taking them to five consecutive playoff appearances. Their offense – led a stellar season from Baker Mayfield – was fourth in points per game, and they added an exciting talent with first-round pick Emeka Egbuka.
The rest of the draft was focused on reinforcing a middling defense. Tampa Bay doesn’t need to have nailed the draft to hit this over, given how favorable their schedule is for a division winner – the NFC South remains one of the kindest divisions in football.
Jacksonville Jaguars Under 7.5 Wins (-105)
PFF believes the ‘best possible outcome’ for the Jaguars’ offensive line is to be average. Trevor Lawrence played only 10 games last season and might be drinking in the last chance saloon as Jacksonville’s starting quarterback.
Free-agent acquisitions have improved the Jags’ offensive line, but not enough to make them a playoff threat. Travis Hunter is going to be a fascinating player to watch as he attempts to play both sides of the ball, yet the rest of Jacksonville’s offseason was pretty uninspiring.
Liam Coen has his work cut out to make this into an above-average team on offense or defense. Getting to eight wins is a stretch – it wouldn’t be a surprise if they were 1-6 by their bye week.
Houston Texans Under 9.5 Wins (-125)
The Texans have the worst offensive line in the NFL, per PFF. Cam Robinson, signed to revamp their play in the trenches, ranked poorly in pass protection last year. Laken Tomlinson’s numbers have been poor since he made the Pro Bowl in 2021.
C.J. Stroud was hurried more than any other quarterback in 2024. His pressure rate was the highest in the league, which contributed to a disappointing season for the Texans, despite winning 10 regular-season games.
Houston hasn’t done enough to address its greatest weakness. The receiving corps is exciting, and the secondary is more than fine, but they had to prioritize protecting Stroud.
Atlanta Falcons Over 7.5 Wins (-140)
Atlanta won eight games, despite Michael Penix Jr. only making three starts in 2024. They were proactive and opportunistic in the draft, ending up with two first-round selections and trading up to land Xavier Watts.
This team was 13th in points per game with a decrepit Kirk Cousins under center. Swap in the dynamic Penix alongside Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Darnell Mooney, and a top-10 offense is well within reach.
It’s a difficult start to the season on paper, but the Falcons could surprise a few teams in the early going. There are some cheap wins available thanks to their divisional opponents, so eight wins is more than realistic.
San Francisco 49ers Under 10.5 Wins (-110)
Deebo Samuel is gone. San Francisco won six games last year. Yes, they won’t be as injured after having the worst injury luck in the league in 2024, but key players like Christian McCaffrey and Trent Williams are likely to miss time, and others have a lot of miles on their bodies.
Their schedule is much kinder than it was last season, and Robert Saleh’s return is a welcome boost to the defense. Yet, the Niners were unable to make any major moves in free agency due to the salary cap hell they are living in. With no Samuel, what does the offense lean on when McCaffrey is inevitably sidelined?
Eleven wins seems a big ask for this Niners roster. They should be more competitive than in 2024, but that doesn’t mean they can win five more games.
