NFL Draft Forecasts 2024: Winds Shifting in the Windy City?
by Tyler Doty | by Tyler Doty
The Road to the 2024 NFL Draft
With the Chicago Bears clinching the first pick in the 2024 NFL Draft through a trade with Carolina, their choice seems all but made. The draft, just two weeks away, has fans and analysts alike buzzing with predictions and mock drafts. The Bears’ choice to trade Justin Fields to the Steelers is a clear sign that the franchise has a QB pick in mind.
The consensus for the Bears’ first-round pick is former USC QB, Caleb Williams whose explosive play and idiosyncrasies have made him the talk of the town.
Here's a look at the 2024 NFL Draft Odds for the #1 Overall Pick:
| Player | Position | Odds | School |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | QB | -10000 | USC |
| Jayden Daniels | QB | +3000 | LSU |
| Drake Maye | QB | +4000 | NC |
| J.J. McCarthy | QB | +10000 | Michigan |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | +10000 | Ohio St. |
Odds provided by FanDuel.
As the draft looms just over the horizon, Caleb Williams stands out as the frontrunner to be chosen first by the Bears, with odds at -10000. The discussion around who will follow is heating up, with quarterbacks Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye vying for the subsequent picks. Marvin Harrison Jr. is the only non-QB in the top 6.
Beyond 1st Overall Pick:
Outside of wagering on the first overall pick, there are several interesting betting markets for the NFL Draft. For instance, one can bet on the team to draft popular college players like Bo Nix, J.J. McCarthy, Michael Penix Jr., or Xavier Worthy. You can wager on the players' positions drafted first by each team, the total number of drafts for each position, etc.
2024 NFL Drafting Order
How are NFL drafting orders determined? Drafting order is set by each team's regular season record from the previous season. If a team made the playoffs, they're automatically assigned slots 21-32. Teams can also trade spots (as the Bears did this year for the #1 spot).
If teams share the same strength of schedule, division or conference tiebreakers are used. Should these be inapplicable, or if ties persist across different conferences, the following methods break the ties:
- Head-to-head
- Best win-loss-tie percentage in common games (minimum of four)
- Point spread victory in all games
- Highest combined ranking in points scored and allowed in all games
- Best net points in all games
- Best net touchdowns in all games
Here are the drafting orders for 2024:
- Chicago Bears (from Carolina)
- Washington Commanders
- New England Patriots
- Arizona Cardinals
- Los Angeles Chargers
- New York Giants
- Tennessee Titans
- Atlanta Falcons
- Chicago Bears
- New York Jets
- Minnesota Vikings
- Denver Broncos
- Las Vegas Raiders
- New Orleans Saints
- Indianapolis Colts
- Seattle Seahawks
- Jacksonville Jaguars
- Cincinnati Bengals
- Los Angeles Rams
- Pittsburgh Steelers
- Miami Dolphins
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Minnesota Vikings (from Cleveland through Houston)
- Dallas Cowboys
- Green Bay Packers
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Arizona Cardinals (from Houston)
- Buffalo Bills
- Detroit Lions
- Baltimore Ravens
- San Francisco 49ers
- Kansas City Chiefs
Emerging NFL Draft Trends
The trend in recent drafts highlights the premium placed on quarterbacks, with the position dominating the first overall pick in many of the past years. However, history shows that drafting a ‘franchise’ QB in the first round is almost always a bust. Since 2011, Business Insider reports that 38 teams have drafted a first-round QB and among these 38, they’ve lost more games than they’ve won.
Your Guide to NFL Draft Betting
With the draft drawing near, betting markets are adjusting in real-time. Bettors are advised to stay informed on collegiate performances, expert evaluations, and team needs. For newcomers to draft betting, understanding the odds is key: a negative sign (-) indicates the amount you need to wager to win $100, while a positive sign (+) shows the potential return on a $100 bet.
For example, if you’re looking to bet on the likelihood of Caleb Williams being drafted first at -10000, that means you’ll need to put down $10,000 in order to win $100. If you take a bet with longer odds, such as Jayden Daniels going first at +2000, you’ll win $2,000 with a $100 bet. Good luck and above all, enjoy the draft!
