Home Run Derby Betting

Home Run Derby

The Home Run Derby is one of the biggest events of the MLB All-Star break. It also presents an array of sports betting opportunities, with the leading sportsbooks providing a catalogue of Home Run Derby odds for baseball fans to bet on.

Only four players – Ken Griffey Jr., Prince Fielder, Yoenis Cespedes, Pete Alonso – have won the Home Run Derby on multiple occasions. This showcase of MLB’s best sluggers is far less predictable than it might seem and should not be overlooked as a betting opportunity during the midseason festivities built around the All-Star game.

Here, we take a look at the different types of bets that can be placed during the Home Run Derby and offer some tips to new and experienced bettors. Get ready to enjoy one of the most thrilling events for MLB betting and have a chance to cash in on some great wins.

📖How it works
🔍Betting on the HRD
⚾Strategies
💡Our Tips

How Does the Home Run Derby Work?

Eight players take part in the MLB Home Run Derby. These are some of the big-league’s best sluggers, like Alonso, Gunnar Henderson, Marcell Ozuna, and Adolis Garcia. Here's a brief look at the layout of the Home Run Derby:

Hitters get three minutes, or 40 pitches, to hit as many homers as possible in the first round.
Each hitter is allowed a 30-second time out during their first round effort.
Every hitter also gets a 30-second bonus period at the end of their turn – hitters have to hit as many homers as possible before allowing three outs, and each homer of 425 feet or longer earns an additional out.

A bracket is adopted for the four players with the best first-round scores. The top scorer faces the fourth place and second takes on third. The rules for each hitter’s turn are the same in the semi-final and final, other than a shorter duration in the final.

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How to Bet on the MLB Home Run Derby

It’s easy to bet on the Home Run Derby at any of the major sportsbooks. You can wager on the outright winner, head-to-head matchups, or even who will hit the longest home run of the event.

Player prop bets are particularly popular when it comes to betting on the home run derby. This might be an over/under on how many home runs a specific player will hit or a wager on which round they will reach in the Derby.

The process for betting on the Derby is the same as wagering on any MLB event. To place a bet, you need to be registered with a sportsbook, whether that’s DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, or one of the other reputable options available in your state.

Once you have registered and verified your account, you need to deposit funds so you can place wagers on Home Run Derby odds. Then, it’s a case of analyzing the markets available at your sportsbook of choice.

While this is a unique event in the MLB calendar, the betting markets are straightforward. In a head-to-head market, you are trying to pick the hitter you think will win in that specific matchup. In others, you might be choosing whether a player will progress past the first round or if a slugger will hold the trophy aloft.

For example, you might back Pete Alonso to win overall at +1000. A $10 bet on Alonso at this price would carry a potential pay out of $110.

Once the semi-final field is set, you might look at an alternative and take Alonso to beat Marcell Ozuna at -150. In this scenario, a $10 wager on Alonso would have a maximum return of $16.67.

Home Run Derby Betting Strategies

The Derby is unlike any other event in the baseball season, so it creates its own challenges for bettors. A new strategy is required compared to normal regular season games, whether you’re accustomed to hammering totals or betting on player props.

Experience Matters

Previous Home Run Derby experience is important. This is unlike hitting in a regular season game – there’s a special type of stamina required to keep launching balls over the fence, and pitches are obviously coming much, much quicker than in a standard game.

There is a knack to hitting in the Derby that we won’t have seen during a regular season game. It is simply to pre-game batting practice in some ways, but even that isn’t an exact replica of what goes on in this showpiece event.

Experience is also relevant for the ‘pitchers’. Many big-time sluggers have seen their Home Run Derby attempts go off course because the pitches were inconsistent. The hitter and pitcher having worked together and practiced the right spot for the ball to be thrown is very important.

Trust Certain Swings

Swing types are crucial for the Home Run Derby. Great hitters are not necessarily equipped to consistently fire the ball over the fence. Those with a flatter swing are going to struggle to elevate enough to hit the kind of competition-winning scores we have seen in the current format.

Players with more of an upper cut might not be the most well-rounded hitters in normal MLB games. In the Home Run Derby, though, they can be really dangerous, as driving the ball in the air comes more naturally to them.

Conducting analysis of the swings involved is very important when placing bets on the Derby. Just because a player has been hitting bombs in the regular season, it doesn’t mean they have the right sort of swing to put up a big score in the Derby.

Look Beyond Home Run Numbers

Derby winners are often having a good season, but that’s partly due to the players who compete in the event. Winning the Home Run Derby is unrelated to a player’s performance at the plate in the first half of the regular season.

Several players have won the Derby on the back of a subpar first half of the year. It’s about getting hot at the right time and having the raw power to hit the ball into the standards repeatedly across three rounds.

The players with the higher home run totals are often among the betting favourites. Instead, look at hard-hit rate, barrels, launch angles, expected home runs, and other underlying metrics. Players who consistently hit the ball over 100 miles per hour are more likely to be able to preserve energy for the latter rounds.

Some players might have high power upside but are having a down year. They can be great value, as they have all the skills to win the Derby if they get hot.

Watch for Momentum Prior to the Event

Before placing any bet on who will be the winner of the Home Run Derby, it is important to look at past performance. Players experience both hot and cold streaks when it comes to batting. This is why looking at momentum leading up to the Derby is a great way to choose a player.

Players who are on a hitting streak will often be in the news and when that streak includes hitting multiple home runs, fans will be aware. Use the latest stats to find the player who has been on a hot streak and back that player in the Derby for the best chances of winning the wager.

Useful Tips for Home Run Derby Betting

Placing bets on this event can lead to some great payouts, but simply using the listed odds to choose a player is not the best way to proceed. There are many factors that can affect how a player performs, so it is important to do some research before preparing to bet. Here, we offer some tips that can be used to make a selection and place a bet that offers the best chances to win.

Avoid the Heavy Favorite – It can be hard to pass by the top name listed, but there can be some great value in players lower on the list. When betting on a player that is a distant contender, the possible payouts will be higher. Since there is not much that separates the 8 players, there can be great opportunities when betting on an underdog.
Be Aware of Weather – No matter where the Home Run Derby is being held, weather will play a role. Be sure to be aware of the forecast for the Derby and adjust bets accordingly. Always consider the wind. This can help a ball leave the park or can alter the trajectory of the ball.
Watch Swing Mechanics – Each player will have a different swing and the mechanics of this is what will make a hitter stand out. Bat speed is important, but so is the angle of the launch. Watch for players who have a strong, but fluid swing and who are capable of adjusting the swing to different itches.

Previous Home Run Derby Winners

2024 – Teoscar Hernandez
2023 – Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
2022 – Juan Soto
2021 – Pete Alonso
2019 – Pete Alonso
2018 – Bryce Harper
2017 – Aaron Judge
2016 – Giancarlo Stanton
2015 – Todd Frazier