Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals Prediction & Picks - MLB
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by Erik Gibbs | in MLB Picks
The Chicago Cubs and Washington Nationals meet at Wrigley Field this afternoon for the second matchup of their opening three-game set, with the Friendly Confines still buzzing from the festivities of a new season. While the North Siders entered the 2026 campaign with the momentum of a 92-70 record and a deep playoff run from the previous year, their opening performance on Thursday left much to be desired. A 10-4 drubbing at the hands of the visiting Nationals served as a cold splash of water for a fan base expecting immediate dominance. The Cubs' pitching staff, which ranked in the top ten in ERA last season, looked uncharacteristically vulnerable as they surrendered six runs in a single frame, failing to capitalize on an early lead.
On the other side of the diamond, the Nationals appear determined to shed the cellar-dweller label that followed their 66-96 finish in 2025. Washington's offensive explosion in the opener suggests that their youth-heavy roster is maturing faster than external skeptics predicted. After a 2025 season where they ranked near the bottom of the league in slugging percentage and runs per game, the Nationals displayed a disciplined yet aggressive approach at the plate to open 2026, effectively neutralizing the Chicago crowd and putting the National League on notice that they won't be an easy out this year.
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Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals Form
Table
| Teams | Pts | P | W | L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5
|
0.58 | 119 | 69 | 50 |
|
16
|
0.492 | 120 | 59 | 61 |
Chicago Cubs and Washington Nationals Latest Matches
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
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2/6 (33%)
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2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
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3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
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2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
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Chicago Cubs against Washington Nationals : Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
67 %
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Chicago Cubs - Washington Nationals Key Points
- The Over is 4-1 in the Nats' last 5 away games
- The Over is 3-2 in the Cubs' last 5 home games
- The Nats are 3-2 ATS in their last 5 away games
- The Cubs are 2-3 ATS in their last 5 home games
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Our Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals Prediction
For the Cubs, Michael Busch has been a bright spot, carrying a hot bat into the regular season with a 3-for-4 performance in the opener that included two runs scored. Cade Horton makes his highly anticipated 2026 debut today, looking to prove he has fully recovered from the injury that sidelined him during last year's postseason. Washington's Joey Wiemer, a late-spring waiver addition, has quickly made his mark by going 3-for-3 with a home run on Opening Day, while rookie Brady House flashed his power with a towering two-run shot.
Injuries are already playing a significant role in how these managers are filling out their scorecards. Chicago is navigating a thin rotation without left-handers Justin Steele and Jordan Wicks, both of whom are currently dealing with elbow issues. The Nationals are similarly hampered, missing top outfield prospect Dylan Crews due to a late-spring training injury, which opened the door for Wiemer's surprising emergence. On the mound, the Nationals turn to veteran Miles Mikolas, who is making his first start for the club after a long tenure in St. Louis.
Despite the lopsided score in the opener, the Cubs hold the upper hand in this specific matchup. With Horton on the hill, Chicago possesses the pitching advantage, as his elite strikeout ability matches up well against a Washington lineup that can be prone to the swing-and-miss. The Nats are certainly scrappy, but Mikolas has historically struggled at Wrigley Field, and the Cubs' veteran-laden lineup is unlikely to be held down two games in a row. Expect Chicago to tighten up defensively and lean on their superior bullpen depth to even the series. Our prediction for Chicago Cubs vs. Washington Nationals: Over 9.5 runs.
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