USA vs Mexico Prediction & Picks - CONCACAF Gold Cup

International - CONCACAF Gold Cup

USA
7/6/25 19:00
Mexico

Prediction:

 

Draw and under 2.5 goals

+215
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 by Simon Day in CONCACAF Gold Cup Picks

Mexico and the United States meet on Sunday night in what looks like being a blockbuster final of the 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup. Mexico will go into the contest as marginal favorites and have arguably been the standout side in the tournament so far. However, the USA have also produced a string of fine performances to reach the final and will be confident of landing their fourth Gold Cup in the last 12 years. 

In the semi finals, Mexico eased past Honduras 1-0 thanks to a 50th minute strike from Raul Jimenez. In truth, they dominated the contest and deserved to win by a much more convincing scoreline. Honduras only registered one shot on target, and made virtually no impression on the Mexican backline. The US also had a relatively straightforward semi final. Two early goals from Diego Luna set them on their way against Guatemala, and despite a brave fightback from the Guatemalans, the US hung on for a deserved victory. 

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USA vs Mexico Form

USA and Mexico Latest Matches

USA
USA Latest matches
L W W W D W
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.33 Total goals
50% BTTS
2 Goals scored
1.33 Goals conceded
83% Over 2.5
17% Under 2.5

Jul 2, 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup

USA
2 :  1
Guatemala

Jun 29, 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup

USA
2 :  2
Costa Rica

Jun 22, 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup

USA
2 :  1
Haiti

Jun 19, 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup

Saudi Arabia
0 :  1
USA

Jun 15, 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup

USA
5 :  0
Trinidad And Tobago

Jun 10, 2025 - International Friendlies

USA
0 :  4
Switzerland
L L W W D W
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.67 Total goals
67% BTTS
2 Goals scored
1.67 Goals conceded
100% Over 2.5
0% Under 2.5

Jul 2, 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup

USA
2 :  1
Guatemala

Jun 29, 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup

USA
2 :  2
Costa Rica

Jun 22, 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup

USA
2 :  1
Haiti

Jun 15, 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup

USA
5 :  0
Trinidad And Tobago

Jun 10, 2025 - International Friendlies

USA
0 :  4
Switzerland

Jun 7, 2025 - International Friendlies

USA
1 :  2
Turkey
L L L W L W
Victories

2/6 (33%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

4/6 (67%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.17 Total goals
50% BTTS
0.83 Goals scored
1.33 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

Jun 19, 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup

Saudi Arabia
0 :  1
USA

Mar 23, 2025 - CONCACAF Nations League

Canada
2 :  1
USA

Nov 14, 2024 - CONCACAF Nations League

Jamaica
0 :  1
USA

Oct 15, 2024 - International Friendlies

Mexico
2 :  0
USA

Jun 27, 2024 - Copa America

Panama
2 :  1
USA

Nov 20, 2023 - CONCACAF Nations League

Trinidad And Tobago
2 :  1
USA
Mexico
Mexico Latest matches
W W W D W W
Victories

5/6 (83%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Defeats

0/6 (0%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

1.83 Total goals
17% BTTS
1.5 Goals scored
0.33 Goals conceded
17% Over 2.5
83% Under 2.5

Jul 2, 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup

Mexico
1 :  0
Honduras

Jun 28, 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup

Mexico
2 :  0
Saudi Arabia

Jun 22, 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup

Mexico
0 :  0
Costa Rica

Jun 18, 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup

Suriname
0 :  2
Mexico

Jun 14, 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup

Mexico
3 :  2
Dominican Republic

Jun 10, 2025 - International Friendlies

Mexico
1 :  0
Turkey
L W W D W W
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.5 Total goals
33% BTTS
1.5 Goals scored
1 Goals conceded
33% Over 2.5
67% Under 2.5

Jul 2, 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup

Mexico
1 :  0
Honduras

Jun 28, 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup

Mexico
2 :  0
Saudi Arabia

Jun 22, 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup

Mexico
0 :  0
Costa Rica

Jun 14, 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup

Mexico
3 :  2
Dominican Republic

Jun 10, 2025 - International Friendlies

Mexico
1 :  0
Turkey

Jun 7, 2025 - International Friendlies

Mexico
2 :  4
Switzerland
L D L L W W
Victories

2/6 (33%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Defeats

3/6 (50%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

1.5 Total goals
0% BTTS
0.67 Goals scored
0.83 Goals conceded
0% Over 2.5
100% Under 2.5

Jun 18, 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup

Suriname
0 :  2
Mexico

Mar 20, 2025 - CONCACAF Nations League

Canada
0 :  2
Mexico

Jan 21, 2025 - International Friendlies

River Plate
2 :  0
Mexico

Nov 15, 2024 - CONCACAF Nations League

Honduras
2 :  0
Mexico

Sep 10, 2024 - International Friendlies

Canada
0 :  0
Mexico

Jun 26, 2024 - Copa America

Venezuela
1 :  0
Mexico

USA against Mexico : Head to Head (H2H)

USA

67 %

Draw

17 %

Mexico

17 %

Average stats (last H2H results)

2.33
Total goals
17%
BTTS
1.67
Goals scored (Team 1)
0.67
Goals scored (Team 2)
33%
Over 2.5
67%
Under 2.5

Oct 15, 2024 - International Friendlies

Mexico
2 :  0
USA

Mar 24, 2024 - CONCACAF Nations League

USA
2 :  0
Mexico

Jun 15, 2023 - CONCACAF Nations League

USA
3 :  0
Mexico

Mar 24, 2022 - World Cup

Mexico
0 :  0
USA

Nov 12, 2021 - World Cup

USA
2 :  0
Mexico

Jun 6, 2021 - CONCACAF Nations League

USA
3 :  2
Mexico

USA - Mexico: Form Analysis

Mexico's path to the final has been largely due to a a rock-solid defence that has kept four consecutive clean sheets since conceding twice to the Dominican Republic in their opening game. Following that 3-2 victory, they eased to a 2-0 win against Suriname before playing out a mutually beneficial 0-0 draw with Costa Rica. A fine goal from Alexis Vega helped them to a comfortable 2-0 win over Saudi Arabia in the quarter finals, before an equally impressive display saw them oust Honduras in the last four. 

Goals galore for the US

The US began the tournament with a  5-0 thumping of Trinidad and Tobago before much tougher victories over Haiti and Saudi Arabia saw them finish Group  D a 100% record. They found life much tougher in the quarter finals, needing extra time and penalties before edging out Costa Rica, before deservedly beating Guatemala 2-1 at the semi final stage.

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Mexico v USA last Lineups

USA

Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1

25
M. Freese
16
A. Freeman
3
C. Richards
13
T. Ream
18
M. Arfsten
4
T. Adams
14
L. De La Torre
17
M. Tillman
8
S. Berhalter
10
D. Luna
24
P. Agyemang
10
A. Vega
9
R. Jimenez
25
R. Alvarado
14
M. Ruiz
4
E. Alvarez
7
G. Mora
26
M. Chavez
5
J. Vasquez
3
C. Montes
22
J. Araujo
1
L. Malagon

Formation : 4 - 3 - 3

Mexico

USA & Mexico Squad Analysis

Mexico are likely to be unchanged from the side that defeated Honduras in the semi finals. That means Rual Jimenex will continue to lead the line, with Alexis Vega and Roberto Alvarado providing the chief support. Despite impressive off the bench and providing the assist for the winner in the semi final, 16 year old sensation Gilberto Mora will again have to settle for a place on the substitutes' bench. 

Mexico probable starting eleven: Malagon; Araujo, Montes, Vasquez, Gallardo; Rodriguez, Ed. Alvarez, L. Chavez; Alvarado, Jimenez, Vega

USA to stick with the same eleven

The US are also likely to be unchanged from the side that started in the semi final. That means there will be no place in the lineup for Myles Robinson, who scored the winner when the teams met in the 2021 Gold Cup final. 

USA probable starting eleven: Freese; Freeman, Richards, Ream, Arfsten; Adams, de la Torre; Berhalter, Tillman, Luna; Agyemang

Most goals and assists

CD Huachipato USA
CD Huachipato Mexico
Top Goalscorer
USA M. Tillman (3 Goals)
USA D. Luna (3 Goals)
Top Goalscorer
Mexico C. Montes (3 Goals)
Best assists
USA M. Arfsten (3 Assists)
Best assists
Mexico A. Vega (1 Assists)
Mexico J. Quinones (1 Assists)
Mexico G. Mora (1 Assists)
Mexico O. Pineda (1 Assists)
Mexico E. Alvarez (1 Assists)
Mexico S. Gimenez (1 Assists)

USA - Mexico Key Points

  1. Mexico have gone 4 games without conceding a goal
  2. 6 of the last 7 games between Mexico and the USA have produced under 2.5 goals
  3. Mexico are unbeaten in 6 games
  4. Mexico's last 4 games have all produced under 2.5 goals
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Our USA vs Mexico Prediction

This is a very even looking matchup and we would not be surprised to see the game go all the way to penalties. Mexico have the best defence in the tournament, and whilst the US have been scoring plenty of goals, we think they will find things a lot tougher on Sunday. If we had to stick our necks out, we would probably back Mexico for the win, but we think the smart option is to back the game to finish 0-0 or 1-1 after 90 minutes. Our prediction for USA vs Mexico is: Draw and under 2.5 goals. 

Prediction:

 

Draw and under 2.5 goals

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USA vs Mexico - Other Interesting Picks

Half time correct score: 0-0

Odds +155
Given that finals are often cagey affairs early on, we think there is an excellent chance that this game will be goalless at half time, especially when you take into account the fact that Mexico have gone six games without conceding a first half goal.
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Raul Jimenez first goalscorer

Odds +510
Veteran striker Raul Jimenez is showing no signs of slowing down, and as he demonstrated in the semi finals, he still knows how to find the net. The Fulham man now has 41 goals for his country, so we think he has an excellent chance of opening the scoring on Sunday.
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USA vs Mexico match : Frequently asked questions

The Gold Cup final between Mexico and the USA kicks off at 7 PM ET / 4 PM PT on Sunday, 6th July.
The Mexico vs USA Gold Cup final will take place at the NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas.

All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.

USA vs Mexico Picks
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