Canada vs USA Prediction & Picks - Ice hockey - Men's Olympic Tournament
International - Ice hockey - Men's Olympic Tournament
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by Taavi Pailk | in Ice hockey - Men's Olympic Tournament Picks
The men’s Olympic ice hockey tournament wraps up on Sunday with a highly anticipated final between Canada and the USA at PalaItalia Santa Giulia in Milan.
This will be the third time that these two powerhouses face off in an Olympic final featuring NHL players. Sidney Crosby scored a memorable 3-2 overtime goal to give Canada gold on home ice in 2010. Eight years earlier, Jerome Iginla and Joe Sakic carried Team Canada to a 5-2 victory over the U.S. in Salt Lake City.
On Sunday, Canada will look to secure its 10th Olympic gold in men’s ice hockey, while the USA hopes to triumph for the third time. The Americans haven’t won gold in men’s ice hockey since the famous “Miracle on Ice” tournament in 1980.
A year ago, overtime was again needed to separate these teams in the 4 Nations Face-Off final, with Canada winning 3-2. In Milan, hockey fans will hope to see another tightly-contested encounter full of drama and entertainment.
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Canada and USA Latest Matches
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Canada - USA: Form Analysis
The star-studded teams have been dominant throughout the tournament in Milan, combining for 51 goals en route to the final. Canada has averaged 5.4 goals across five games, while Team USA has scored 4.8 goals per game.
Defensively, these sides have also been on another level, allowing eight goals each. Three of the goals Canada has given up have come on the power play, whereas the U.S. heads into Sunday’s big final with a 100 percent penalty-killing record. Mike Sullivan’s team will now have to find a way to stop a power play clicking at 43.8 percent.
The star-studded teams have been dominant throughout the tournament in Milan, combining for 51 goals en route to the final.
Special teams played a huge role in Canada’s 3-2 semifinal victory over Finland. The defending champions jumped to a 2-0 lead through a power-play goal and a short-handed tally, but the Canadians turned things around with two power-play goals of their own. Given how efficient the USA is at killing penalties, Canada will have to sharpen its even-strength performance on Sunday.
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Canada & USA Squad Analysis
The biggest question before Sunday’s final is whether Sidney Crosby will suit up for Team Canada. He missed Friday’s win due to a lower-body injury sustained in the quarterfinals against Czechia. Canada has a 24-2 record at best-on-best tournaments with Crosby in the lineup.
The Canadians have also played most of the Olympics without Josh Morrissey, who suffered an undisclosed injury in the tournament opener. However, the Winnipeg Jets defenseman hasn’t been missed much, with Czechia being the only team in the tournament to score more than twice against Team Canada.
Canada has a 24-2 record at best-on-best tournaments with Crosby in the lineup.
Team USA suffered an injury scare during its 6-2 semifinal victory over Slovakia on Friday when Tage Thompson failed to finish the contest. But his early exit appears to have been only for precautionary reasons, as it’s been confirmed that the Buffalo Sabres star will be available for Sunday’s matchup.
Most goals and assists
Canada
USA
M. Celebrini
(5 Goals)
J. Hughes
(4 Goals)
C. McDavid
(11 Assists)
Q. Hughes
(7 Assists)
Canada - USA Key Points
- This will be the 20th all-time meeting between Canada and the USA in the Olympics, with Canada leading the series with 12 wins to four.
- On average, Olympic matchups between Canada and the USA have featured 5.7 goals per game.
- In previous Olympic finals with NHL players, there have been 4.2 goals per game.
- Two of the last four Olympic finals have gone past regulation.
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Our Canada vs USA Prediction
In all sports, finals tend to be cagey affairs, as one mistake or a lapse in concentration can cost you the victory. A final typically features two of the best sides around, with little -- if any -- difference in quality between them. This will certainly be the case on Sunday, as both Canada and the U.S. are stacked with world-class talent.
The previous Olympic final and last year’s 4 Nations Face-Off final between these teams were both decided in overtime. No one would be surprised if Sunday’s game goes the distance as well.
Our prediction for Canada vs. USA: Draw.
Canada vs USA - Other Interesting Picks
1st period under 1.5 goals
With so much at stake, both teams could start cautiously, focusing on settling into the game and avoiding early mistakes. They'll be careful not to take penalties, knowing how costly they can be in a close matchup. As a result, scoring chances may be scarce in the first 20 minutes of action. Each of the last five Olympic finals in men’s ice hockey has featured just one first-period goal.
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