Toronto Maple Leafs vs Detroit Red Wings Prediction & Picks - NHL

USA - NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs
12/28/25 19:00
Detroit Red Wings

Prediction:

 

Maple Leafs to win

+115
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 by Taavi Pailk in NHL Picks

It’s top versus bottom in the Atlantic Division this weekend as the Detroit Red Wings host the Toronto Maple Leafs at Little Caesars Arena on Sunday.

Things have gone from bad to worse throughout the season for the Maple Leafs, who have struggled to cope with the absence of Mitch Marner. Without him, the team hasn’t had the same oomph offensively, and there have been some horrid defensive performances.

Before Toronto beat the Pittsburgh Penguins 6-3 ahead of the Christmas break, Craig Berube’s side had lost three games in a row, giving up 14 goals in the process. For the season, the Maple Leafs are allowing 3.33 goals per game, and they won’t be anywhere near the playoff race come spring if things don’t improve at the back.

Detroit has also faced some defensive issues, entering the weekend with a 3.16 goals-against average. Yet, the team has 10 more points on the table than Toronto and has recently impressed with wins over top-class Washington and Dallas teams.

The Red Wings went 5-1-0 ahead of the holidays, despite missing Patrick Kane from the lineup for five of the games. The former MVP elevates Detroit’s ceiling, but Todd McLellan’s team has proven that they can also be competitive without Kane.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Detroit Red Wings Form

Table

Teams Pts P W L GD
2
Detroit Red Wings
Detroit Red Wings
47 39 22 17 -5
15
Toronto Maple Leafs
Toronto Maple Leafs
39 37 17 20 -4

Toronto Maple Leafs and Detroit Red Wings Latest Matches

Toronto Maple Leafs
Toronto Maple Leafs Latest matches
W L L L W W
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Defeats

3/6 (50%)

Dec 27, 2025 - NHL

Ottawa Senators
5 :  7
Toronto Maple Leafs

Dec 23, 2025 - NHL

Pittsburgh Penguins
3 :  6
Toronto Maple Leafs

Dec 21, 2025 - NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs
1 :  5
Dallas Stars

Dec 20, 2025 - NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs
3 :  5
Nashville Predators

Dec 18, 2025 - NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs
0 :  4
Washington Capitals

Dec 16, 2025 - NHL

Chicago Blackhawks
2 :  3
Toronto Maple Leafs
W L L W W W
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Dec 27, 2025 - NHL

Ottawa Senators
5 :  7
Toronto Maple Leafs

Dec 23, 2025 - NHL

Pittsburgh Penguins
3 :  6
Toronto Maple Leafs

Dec 16, 2025 - NHL

Chicago Blackhawks
2 :  3
Toronto Maple Leafs

Dec 13, 2025 - NHL

Edmonton Oilers
6 :  3
Toronto Maple Leafs

Dec 11, 2025 - NHL

San Jose Sharks
3 :  2
Toronto Maple Leafs

Dec 8, 2025 - NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning
0 :  2
Toronto Maple Leafs
W W W L L L
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Defeats

3/6 (50%)

Dec 21, 2025 - NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs
1 :  5
Dallas Stars

Dec 20, 2025 - NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs
3 :  5
Nashville Predators

Dec 18, 2025 - NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs
0 :  4
Washington Capitals

Dec 4, 2025 - NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs
5 :  1
Carolina Hurricanes

Dec 2, 2025 - NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs
4 :  1
Florida Panthers

Nov 29, 2025 - NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs
7 :  2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Detroit Red Wings
Detroit Red Wings Latest matches
W L W W W L
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Dec 27, 2025 - NHL

Detroit Red Wings
2 :  5
Carolina Hurricanes

Dec 23, 2025 - NHL

Dallas Stars
3 :  4
Detroit Red Wings

Dec 21, 2025 - NHL

Washington Capitals
2 :  3
Detroit Red Wings

Dec 20, 2025 - NHL

Detroit Red Wings
5 :  2
Washington Capitals

Dec 17, 2025 - NHL

Utah Mammoth
4 :  1
Detroit Red Wings

Dec 16, 2025 - NHL

New York Islanders
2 :  3
Detroit Red Wings
L W W L W W
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Dec 23, 2025 - NHL

Dallas Stars
3 :  4
Detroit Red Wings

Dec 21, 2025 - NHL

Washington Capitals
2 :  3
Detroit Red Wings

Dec 17, 2025 - NHL

Utah Mammoth
4 :  1
Detroit Red Wings

Dec 16, 2025 - NHL

New York Islanders
2 :  3
Detroit Red Wings

Dec 2, 2025 - NHL

Boston Bruins
4 :  5
Detroit Red Wings

Nov 28, 2025 - NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning
6 :  3
Detroit Red Wings
W W L W W L
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Dec 27, 2025 - NHL

Detroit Red Wings
2 :  5
Carolina Hurricanes

Dec 20, 2025 - NHL

Detroit Red Wings
5 :  2
Washington Capitals

Dec 13, 2025 - NHL

Detroit Red Wings
4 :  0
Chicago Blackhawks

Dec 11, 2025 - NHL

Detroit Red Wings
1 :  4
Edmonton Oilers

Dec 10, 2025 - NHL

Detroit Red Wings
4 :  3
Calgary Flames

Dec 8, 2025 - NHL

Detroit Red Wings
4 :  0
Vancouver Canucks

Toronto Maple Leafs against Detroit Red Wings : Head to Head (H2H)

Toronto Maple Leafs

50 %

Detroit Red Wings

50 %

Oct 13, 2025 - NHL

Detroit Red Wings
3 :  2
Toronto Maple Leafs

Oct 11, 2025 - NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs
3 :  6
Detroit Red Wings

Apr 17, 2025 - NHL

Detroit Red Wings
3 :  4
Toronto Maple Leafs

Dec 27, 2024 - NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs
5 :  2
Detroit Red Wings

Dec 14, 2024 - NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs
2 :  4
Detroit Red Wings

Nov 8, 2024 - NHL

Detroit Red Wings
1 :  3
Toronto Maple Leafs

Toronto Maple Leafs - Detroit Red Wings Key Points

  1. The teams meet for the third time this season, with Detroit having beaten Toronto in both previous clashes, scoring nine goals and allowing five.
  2. The Red Wings are tied for the most home wins in the Eastern Conference, going 12-7-1 at Little Caesars Arena.
  3. The Maple Leafs have won a league-low five road games this season, posting a 5-10-0 record on away ice.
  4. Detroit hasn’t beaten Toronto three times in a single season since 2015-16.

Our Toronto Maple Leafs vs Detroit Red Wings Prediction

The Red Wings are having a great season, but they seem to be overperforming. The team has a poor defensive record, and the offense can’t continue to keep bailing them out.

Meanwhile, the Maple Leafs seem to be underperforming. The roster is too good for a team sitting last in its division. Several players have struggled to find form, and the likes of Auston Matthews are likely to hit top gear at one point. At the moment, the three-time Rocket Richard Trophy winner has just 23 points (14 goals and nine assists) through 31 games, which is well below the standard expected from a player of his caliber.

Our prediction for Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Detroit Red Wings: Maple Leafs to win.

Prediction:

 

Maple Leafs to win

+115
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Toronto Maple Leafs vs Detroit Red Wings Picks