Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction & Picks - MLB

Prediction published on 10/17/25, 2:10 PM  by Lou Aguila | Modified on 10/18/25 at 4:22 PM in MLB Picks

With the ALCS tied at 2-2, the Seattle Mariners and the Toronto Blue Jays are headed for a pivotal Game 5 on Friday at T-Mobile Park.

The Mariners are slight home underdogs at -108 after losing back-to-back games to the Blue Jays on their home turf.

Series Recap:

No team has yet to win at home in this series. The Mariners drew first blood, taking a commanding 2-0 lead in the championship series after posting a 3-1 win in Game 1 and an explosive 10-3 win in Game 2 at Rogers Center. With their backs against the wall, the Blue Jays flipped the script and also won two road games against the Mariners at T-Mobile Park. Toronto showcased its offensive firepower in both games, routing Seattle 13-4 in Game 3 and 8-2 in Game 4.

Starting Pitchers Matchup:

Blue Jays RHP Kevin Gausmann (2-3, 4.05 ERA in his last 5 starts) – Gausmann has only allowed three earned runs over 10.4 innings in two starts this postseason. The Blue Jays pitcher was the starter in Game 1 of the ALCS, giving up two earned runs over 5.2 innings in a 1-3 loss. Gausmann is 1-2 in his last three starts vs. the Mariners, surrendering an average of 2.3 earned runs with 6.0 strikeouts per game.

Mariners RHP Bryce Miller (2-3, 4.68 ERA in his last five starts) – Miller is set to start for the third time this postseason. Like Gausmann, Miller has also allowed three earned runs over 10 innings in two starts in the playoffs. He was the starter for the Mariners in Game 1 of the ALCS, where he conceded one earned run over six innings to help Seattle take a 3-1 win. Miller is 2-1 in his last three starts against the Blue Jays, giving up an average of 3.0 earned runs over 5.1 innings per game.