Texas Longhorns vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Prediction & Picks - NCAA

USA - NCAA

Texas Longhorns
10/25/25 16:15
Mississippi State Bulldogs

Prediction:

 

Mississippi State +7.5

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 by Travis Pulver in NCAA Picks

Mississippi State will have a tough time winning its first conference game of the season Saturday when they host the No. 22 Texas Longhorns at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, MS. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:15 p.m. EST; fans can follow the action on the SEC Network.

It hasn’t been the kind of year Texas thought it was going to be. Losing to Ohio State, the No. 3 team in the country, didn’t look too bad since it was a competitive game. But cracks in the armor were evident in the lackluster win over UTEP. Since then, Manning has struggled to get on track against Florida, played well against Oklahoma, and stole a win from Kentucky late in the game. In a nutshell, the defense is playing well, but the offense can’t be counted on from one week to the next. As for Mississippi State, things were looking up for the Bulldogs following a 4-0 nonconference record that included a win over a ranked Arizona State team. But then the world came crashing down in a 41-34 loss to Tennessee, which was followed by a 31-9 loss to Texas A&M, and a 32-21 defeat at the hands of Florida.  As for Mississippi State, they are a better team than their record would indicate and could easily be 6-1 at this point rather than 4-3 had they not lost in OT to Tennessee or by two points to Florida. They are good on offense, averaging 400+ yards per game (58th) and 31.9 points (50th).

Texas Longhorns vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Form

Table

Teams % P W D L
5
Texas Longhorns
Texas Longhorns
0.667 3 2 0 1
14
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Mississippi State Bulldogs
0 3 0 0 3

Texas Longhorns and Mississippi State Bulldogs Latest Matches

Texas Longhorns
Texas Longhorns Latest matches
W W W L W W
Victories

5/6 (83%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Oct 18, 2025 - NCAA

Texas Longhorns
16 :  13
Kentucky Wildcats

Oct 11, 2025 - NCAA

Oklahoma Sooners
6 :  23
Texas Longhorns

Oct 4, 2025 - NCAA

Texas Longhorns
21 :  29
Florida Gators

Sep 20, 2025 - NCAA

Sam Houston State Bearkats
0 :  55
Texas Longhorns

Sep 13, 2025 - NCAA

UTEP Miners
10 :  27
Texas Longhorns

Sep 6, 2025 - NCAA

San Jose State Spartans
7 :  38
Texas Longhorns
W L W W W W
Victories

5/6 (83%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Oct 11, 2025 - NCAA

Oklahoma Sooners
6 :  23
Texas Longhorns

Sep 20, 2025 - NCAA

Sam Houston State Bearkats
0 :  55
Texas Longhorns

Sep 13, 2025 - NCAA

UTEP Miners
10 :  27
Texas Longhorns

Sep 6, 2025 - NCAA

San Jose State Spartans
7 :  38
Texas Longhorns

Jan 10, 2025 - NCAA

Ohio State Buckeyes
28 :  14
Texas Longhorns

Dec 21, 2024 - NCAA

Clemson Tigers
24 :  38
Texas Longhorns
W W W L L W
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Oct 18, 2025 - NCAA

Texas Longhorns
16 :  13
Kentucky Wildcats

Oct 4, 2025 - NCAA

Texas Longhorns
21 :  29
Florida Gators

Aug 30, 2025 - NCAA

Texas Longhorns
7 :  14
Ohio State Buckeyes

Jan 1, 2025 - NCAA

Texas Longhorns
39 :  31
Arizona State Sun Devils

Nov 30, 2024 - NCAA

Texas Longhorns
17 :  7
Texas A&M Aggies

Nov 16, 2024 - NCAA

Texas Longhorns
20 :  10
Arkansas Razorbacks
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Mississippi State Bulldogs Latest matches
W W W L L L
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

3/6 (50%)

Oct 18, 2025 - NCAA

Mississippi State Bulldogs
21 :  23
Florida Gators

Oct 4, 2025 - NCAA

Mississippi State Bulldogs
9 :  31
Texas A&M Aggies

Sep 27, 2025 - NCAA

Tennessee Volunteers
41 :  34
Mississippi State Bulldogs

Sep 20, 2025 - NCAA

Northern Illinois Huskies
10 :  38
Mississippi State Bulldogs

Sep 13, 2025 - NCAA

Alcorn State Braves
0 :  63
Mississippi State Bulldogs

Sep 6, 2025 - NCAA

Arizona State Sun Devils
20 :  24
Mississippi State Bulldogs
W L W W W L
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Sep 27, 2025 - NCAA

Tennessee Volunteers
41 :  34
Mississippi State Bulldogs

Sep 20, 2025 - NCAA

Northern Illinois Huskies
10 :  38
Mississippi State Bulldogs

Sep 13, 2025 - NCAA

Alcorn State Braves
0 :  63
Mississippi State Bulldogs

Sep 6, 2025 - NCAA

Arizona State Sun Devils
20 :  24
Mississippi State Bulldogs

Nov 23, 2024 - NCAA

Missouri Tigers
39 :  20
Mississippi State Bulldogs

Nov 2, 2024 - NCAA

UMass Minutemen
20 :  45
Mississippi State Bulldogs
L L W L L
Victories

1/5 (20%)

Draw

0/5 (0%)

Defeats

4/5 (80%)

Oct 18, 2025 - NCAA

Mississippi State Bulldogs
21 :  23
Florida Gators

Oct 4, 2025 - NCAA

Mississippi State Bulldogs
9 :  31
Texas A&M Aggies

Aug 30, 2025 - NCAA

Mississippi State Bulldogs
34 :  17
Southern Miss Golden Eagles

Nov 29, 2024 - NCAA

Mississippi State Bulldogs
14 :  26
Ole Miss Rebels

Nov 9, 2024 - NCAA

Mississippi State Bulldogs
14 :  33
Tennessee Volunteers

Texas Longhorns - Mississippi State Bulldogs Key Points

  1. Texas leads the all-time series vs. Mississippi State 3-2, winning in Austin last year, 35-13.
  2. Texas is 2-5 ATS this season, while Mississippi State is 6-1 ATS.
  3. The OVER is 2-5 for both teams.
  4. Betting Public: 70% of spread tickets and 55% of the handle are on Mississippi State.

Our Texas Longhorns vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Prediction

Texas has not played its best football on the road, where they are 1-2 this season; quarterback Arch Manning has struggled on the road and has yet to play a complete game against a decent opponent. The Bulldogs have played some of their best games at home, where Mississippi State is 3-1. Taking the Longhorns is the easy pick as they are the marquee team, and their defense has played very well. However, bettors shouldn’t overlook a good (but not great ) Bulldogs team. Texas got lucky late against a bad Kentucky team last week; they will not get as lucky this week. I expect the Longhorns to win this one, but Mississippi State will be competitive and keep it close.

Our Texas vs. Mississippi State Pick: Bulldogs +7.5 (the .5 is crucial)

Prediction:

 

Mississippi State +7.5

-122
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Texas Longhorns vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Picks