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by Travis Pulver in NCAA Picks
Mississippi State will have a tough time winning its first conference game of the season Saturday when they host the No. 22 Texas Longhorns at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, MS. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:15 p.m. EST; fans can follow the action on the SEC Network.
It hasn’t been the kind of year Texas thought it was going to be. Losing to Ohio State, the No. 3 team in the country, didn’t look too bad since it was a competitive game. But cracks in the armor were evident in the lackluster win over UTEP. Since then, Manning has struggled to get on track against Florida, played well against Oklahoma, and stole a win from Kentucky late in the game. In a nutshell, the defense is playing well, but the offense can’t be counted on from one week to the next. As for Mississippi State, things were looking up for the Bulldogs following a 4-0 nonconference record that included a win over a ranked Arizona State team. But then the world came crashing down in a 41-34 loss to Tennessee, which was followed by a 31-9 loss to Texas A&M, and a 32-21 defeat at the hands of Florida. As for Mississippi State, they are a better team than their record would indicate and could easily be 6-1 at this point rather than 4-3 had they not lost in OT to Tennessee or by two points to Florida. They are good on offense, averaging 400+ yards per game (58th) and 31.9 points (50th).
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Texas Longhorns vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Form
Table
| Teams | % | P | W | D | L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5
|
0.667 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
|
14
|
0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
Texas Longhorns and Mississippi State Bulldogs Latest Matches
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Oct 18, 2025 - NCAA
Oct 11, 2025 - NCAA
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5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Oct 11, 2025 - NCAA
Sep 20, 2025 - NCAA
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Jan 10, 2025 - NCAA
Dec 21, 2024 - NCAA
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Oct 18, 2025 - NCAA
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Aug 30, 2025 - NCAA
Jan 1, 2025 - NCAA
Nov 30, 2024 - NCAA
Nov 16, 2024 - NCAA
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Oct 18, 2025 - NCAA
Oct 4, 2025 - NCAA
Sep 27, 2025 - NCAA
Sep 20, 2025 - NCAA
Sep 13, 2025 - NCAA
Sep 6, 2025 - NCAA
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Sep 27, 2025 - NCAA
Sep 20, 2025 - NCAA
Sep 13, 2025 - NCAA
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Nov 23, 2024 - NCAA
Nov 2, 2024 - NCAA
1/5 (20%)
0/5 (0%)
4/5 (80%)
Oct 18, 2025 - NCAA
Oct 4, 2025 - NCAA
Aug 30, 2025 - NCAA
Nov 29, 2024 - NCAA
Nov 9, 2024 - NCAA
Texas Longhorns - Mississippi State Bulldogs Key Points
- Texas leads the all-time series vs. Mississippi State 3-2, winning in Austin last year, 35-13.
- Texas is 2-5 ATS this season, while Mississippi State is 6-1 ATS.
- The OVER is 2-5 for both teams.
- Betting Public: 70% of spread tickets and 55% of the handle are on Mississippi State.
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Our Texas Longhorns vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Prediction
Texas has not played its best football on the road, where they are 1-2 this season; quarterback Arch Manning has struggled on the road and has yet to play a complete game against a decent opponent. The Bulldogs have played some of their best games at home, where Mississippi State is 3-1. Taking the Longhorns is the easy pick as they are the marquee team, and their defense has played very well. However, bettors shouldn’t overlook a good (but not great ) Bulldogs team. Texas got lucky late against a bad Kentucky team last week; they will not get as lucky this week. I expect the Longhorns to win this one, but Mississippi State will be competitive and keep it close.
Our Texas vs. Mississippi State Pick: Bulldogs +7.5 (the .5 is crucial)
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