TCU Horned Frogs vs North Carolina Tar Heels Prediction & Picks - NCAA

USA - NCAA

TCU Horned Frogs
9/1/25 20:00
North Carolina Tar Heels

Prediction:

 

TCU Horned Frogs -2.5 Alternate Spread

-141
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 by Matt Lowrimore in NCAA Picks

Week 1 of the college football season concludes with a single game on Monday night. This will take place on Labor Day and will see the TCU Horned Frogs, out of the Big 12, take on the North Carolina Tar Heels, out of the ACC. Let’s take a look at the match statistics and predictions for this game between the Horned Frogs and the Tar Heels.

TCU enters this game having finished 9-4 overall last season and 6-3 in the Big 12. After going 8-4 in the regular season, the Horned Frogs beat Louisiana in the New Mexico Bowl by a score of 34-3 to earn their ninth win and close the books on a solid season.

As for North Carolina, they enter this game having finished 6-7 last season and 3-5 in the ACC. The Tar Heels had a 6-6 record in the regular season, but lost to UConn in the Wasabi Fenway Bowl to earn their seventh loss in what was a disappointing season overall.

TCU Horned Frogs vs North Carolina Tar Heels Form

Table

Teams % P W D L
9
TCU Horned Frogs
TCU Horned Frogs
0 0 0 0 0
90
North Carolina Tar Heels
North Carolina Tar Heels
0 0 0 0 0

TCU Horned Frogs and North Carolina Tar Heels Latest Matches

TCU Horned Frogs
TCU Horned Frogs Latest matches
W L W W W W
Victories

5/6 (83%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Dec 28, 2024 - NCAA Division I, FBS, Playoffs

Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns
3 :  34
TCU Horned Frogs

Nov 30, 2024 - NCAA

TCU Horned Frogs
20 :  13
Cincinnati Bearcats

Nov 23, 2024 - NCAA

Arizona Wildcats
28 :  49
TCU Horned Frogs

Nov 9, 2024 - NCAA

Oklahoma State Cowboys
13 :  38
TCU Horned Frogs

Nov 2, 2024 - NCAA

TCU Horned Frogs
34 :  37
Baylor Bears

Oct 26, 2024 - NCAA

Texas Tech Red Raiders
34 :  35
TCU Horned Frogs
L L W W W W
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Dec 28, 2024 - NCAA Division I, FBS, Playoffs

Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns
3 :  34
TCU Horned Frogs

Nov 23, 2024 - NCAA

Arizona Wildcats
28 :  49
TCU Horned Frogs

Nov 9, 2024 - NCAA

Oklahoma State Cowboys
13 :  38
TCU Horned Frogs

Oct 26, 2024 - NCAA

Texas Tech Red Raiders
34 :  35
TCU Horned Frogs

Oct 4, 2024 - NCAA

Houston Cougars
30 :  19
TCU Horned Frogs

Sep 14, 2024 - NCAA

UCF Knights
35 :  34
TCU Horned Frogs
W L W W L W
Victories

3/5 (60%)

Draw

0/5 (0%)

Defeats

2/5 (40%)

Nov 30, 2024 - NCAA

TCU Horned Frogs
20 :  13
Cincinnati Bearcats

Nov 2, 2024 - NCAA

TCU Horned Frogs
34 :  37
Baylor Bears

Oct 19, 2024 - NCAA

TCU Horned Frogs
13 :  7
Utah Utes

Sep 28, 2024 - NCAA

TCU Horned Frogs
38 :  27
Kansas Jayhawks

Sep 21, 2024 - NCAA

TCU Horned Frogs
42 :  66
SMU Mustangs
North Carolina Tar Heels
North Carolina Tar Heels Latest matches
W W W L L L
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

3/6 (50%)

Dec 28, 2024 - NCAA Division I, FBS, Playoffs

Connecticut Huskies
27 :  14
North Carolina Tar Heels

Nov 30, 2024 - NCAA

North Carolina State Wolfpack
35 :  30
North Carolina Tar Heels

Nov 23, 2024 - NCAA

North Carolina Tar Heels
21 :  41
Boston College Eagles

Nov 16, 2024 - NCAA

Wake Forest Demon Deacons
24 :  31
North Carolina Tar Heels

Nov 2, 2024 - NCAA

North Carolina Tar Heels
35 :  11
Florida State Seminoles

Oct 26, 2024 - NCAA

North Carolina Tar Heels
41 :  14
Virginia Cavaliers
L L L W L L
Victories

1/6 (17%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

5/6 (83%)

Dec 28, 2024 - NCAA Division I, FBS, Playoffs

Connecticut Huskies
27 :  14
North Carolina Tar Heels

Nov 30, 2024 - NCAA

North Carolina State Wolfpack
35 :  30
North Carolina Tar Heels

Nov 16, 2024 - NCAA

Wake Forest Demon Deacons
24 :  31
North Carolina Tar Heels

Oct 12, 2024 - NCAA

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
41 :  34
North Carolina Tar Heels

Oct 5, 2024 - NCAA

Pittsburgh Panthers
34 :  24
North Carolina Tar Heels

Sep 21, 2024 - NCAA

James Madison Dukes
70 :  50
North Carolina Tar Heels
W L W W L
Victories

3/5 (60%)

Draw

0/5 (0%)

Defeats

2/5 (40%)

Nov 23, 2024 - NCAA

North Carolina Tar Heels
21 :  41
Boston College Eagles

Nov 2, 2024 - NCAA

North Carolina Tar Heels
35 :  11
Florida State Seminoles

Oct 26, 2024 - NCAA

North Carolina Tar Heels
41 :  14
Virginia Cavaliers

Sep 28, 2024 - NCAA

North Carolina Tar Heels
20 :  21
Duke Blue Devils

Aug 29, 2024 - NCAA

North Carolina Tar Heels
19 :  17
Minnesota Golden Gophers

TCU Horned Frogs - North Carolina Tar Heels Key Points

  1. TCU was 4-2 SU on the road last season
  2. UNC was 3-4 SU at home last season
  3. UNC ended last season 0-3 SU
  4. This is Bill Belichick's debut as UNC head coach

Our TCU Horned Frogs vs North Carolina Tar Heels Prediction

There is plenty of hype surrounding North Carolina’s football program this season, largely because Bill Belichick will be the head coach. That being said, this hype may be misplaced, as North Carolina had a ton of problems last season, and one offseason is unlikely to turn them into a true contender.

The Tar Heels were particularly poor on defense last season, allowing an average of 28.1 points per game, which includes a game where they allowed 70 points to James Madison. Further, North Carolina lost a key offensive player in the 2025 NFL Draft, that being Omarion Hampton, who is now on the Los Angeles Chargers. 

As for TCU, they bounced back from a 5-7 season in 2023-2024 to finish 2024-2025 with a respectable 9-4 record, including a bowl win. Further, their offense has been consistent the last few years and should take advantage of what has been a shaky Tar Heels’ defense.

It may take some time for North Carolina to adjust to how Belichick wants to run the team; therefore, our TCU Horned Frogs vs North Carolina Tar Heels prediction is: TCU Horned Frogs -2.5 Alternate Spread.

Prediction:

 

TCU Horned Frogs -2.5 Alternate Spread

-141
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TCU Horned Frogs vs North Carolina Tar Heels Picks