Atlanta Braves vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction & Picks - MLB
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by Travis Pulver | in MLB Picks
The Atlanta Braves (85-61, 48-26 Home) will try to avoid getting swept today when they host the Tampa Bay Rays (87-58, 40-33 Away) at Truist Park. First pitch in this battle of division leaders is set for 12:15 p.m. EST with coverage provided via ESPN Unlimited.
After losing 7-1 to the Rays on Tuesday and 7-2 to them yesterday, the Braves have lost three in a row and four of their last five. While they still lead the NL East, their lead over the Philadelphia Phillies is down to just three games. Tampa Bay, on the other hand, has won four of its last five games.
Martin Perez is scheduled to get the start for the Braves. Perez has gone 8-8 this season in 27 appearances (23 starts) with a 3.25 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP. Teams have been hitting just .227 against him. But he has been even better at home, going 5-4 in 15 appearances (12 starts), posting a 1.99 ERA and a .179 OBA.
As for the Rays, Tampa Bay is scheduled to go with Nick Martinez on the mound today. Martinez is having a solid season, posting a 14-4 record in 27 starts with a 3.04 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. Teams have been hitting .249 against him. He has often had his best stuff on the road, where he is 7-1 with a 2.15 ERA and a .229 OBA.
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Atlanta Braves vs Tampa Bay Rays Form
Table
| Teams | Pts | P | W | L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3
|
0.605 | 162 | 98 | 64 |
|
4
|
0.58 | 162 | 94 | 68 |
Atlanta Braves and Tampa Bay Rays Latest Matches
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
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4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
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4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
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4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
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Atlanta Braves against Tampa Bay Rays : Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
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Atlanta Braves - Tampa Bay Rays Key Points
- Tampa Bay has won five of the last eight meetings vs. the Braves over the last three seasons.
- Atlanta has gone 40-34 ATS (run line) at home this season; Tampa Bay has gone 40-33 ATS (run line) on the road.
- The OVER is 32-38-4 for the Braves at home and 34-38-1 for the Rays on the road.
- Betting Public: 65% of total tickets and 67% of the handle are on the OVER.
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Our Atlanta Braves vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction
My first thought for this game was the UNDER, since both pitchers have low ERAs and have been throwing well at home (Perez) and on the road (Martinez). Now it was a concern seeing that the scores in the other two games totaled eight and nine runs. But with his track record, it was easy to see Perez containing the Rays lineup, at least a little bit. Then I saw his history vs. the Rays: 19-60 for a .317 BA. So, while I still have faith in Martinez doing his part to contain a struggling Atlanta offense, I’m not so confident Perez will hold up his end.
Our Tampa Bay vs. Atlanta Pick: OVER 8.5
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