Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction & Picks - NHL
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by Taavi Pailk | in NHL Picks
A tight playoff battle between the Montreal Canadiens and Tampa Bay Lightning will continue on Sunday in Game 4 at Bell Centre.
The Canadiens will host the fourth game of the matchup after going 2-1 up in the series. For a third game in a row, overtime was needed to separate these teams on Friday, with Lane Hutson scoring the game-winner a couple of minutes into the extra frame.
Tampa Bay had previously never been part of three consecutive overtimes within a single postseason. These teams look evenly matched, and it wouldn’t be surprising if there were a couple more overtimes in this series.
The teams have thrown punches back and forth, and it will be the Lightning's turn to strike back on Sunday night. After the holiday break, Jon Cooper's team lost consecutive games only three times during the regular season. There is some great veteran presence in the squad, and they typically bounce back well from setbacks.
Montreal is still untested on this stage, with this being the team’s second postseason series since losing the 2021 Stanley Cup Finals to Tampa. Having already let several leads slip away in the first three games, their inexperience is apparent, and it will be challenging for them to keep hold of their 2-1 series lead.
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Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning Form
Montreal Canadiens and Tampa Bay Lightning Latest Matches
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Montreal Canadiens against Tampa Bay Lightning : Head to Head (H2H)
67 %
33 %
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Players list
J. Dobes
J. Fowler
K. Guhle
J. Struble
L. Hutson
A. Xhekaj
A. Carrier
M. Matheson
C. Caufield
A. Newhook
K. Dach
J. Evans
Z. Bolduc
O. Kapanen
J. Slafkovsky
A. Texier
N. Suzuki
P. Danault
J. Anderson
I. Demidov
J. Johansson
A. Vasilevskiy
M. Crozier
J. Moser
E. Lilleberg
R. McDonagh
E. Cernak
D. Raddysh
C. Perry
G. Goncalves
D. James
Y. Gourde
Z. Girgensons
N. Kucherov
O. Bjorkstrand
B. Hagel
J. Guentzel
N. Paul
A. Cirelli
B. Point
Most goals and assists
Montreal Canadiens
Tampa Bay Lightning
C. Caufield
(57 Goals)
N. Suzuki
(84 Assists)
Montreal Canadiens - Tampa Bay Lightning Key Points
- In 2026, the Lightning have lost back-to-back games only a handful of times.
- During the regular season, Tampa Bay was tied for the most road wins in the Eastern Conference, posting a 24-12-5 record.
- Montreal has heavily relied on the power play in this series, scoring four of its nine goals with the man advantage.
- The Lightning pose a major offensive threat, led by the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs leading goal-scorer, Brandon Hagel, who has posted four goals in three games.
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Our Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction
Only minor details have decided the first three games between the teams, as there seems to be very little separating them. However, Tampa has far more experience than Montreal, and that could be crucial on Sunday night during the visitors' attempt to avoid a 3-1 series deficit.
Previously, the Lightning have always found ways to respond to Montreal. They are a battle-tested team with plenty of know-how for overcoming difficult situations.
Our prediction for Montreal Canadiens vs. Tampa Bay Lightning: Lightning to win.
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