Sporting Lisbon vs Arsenal Prediction & Picks - Champions League
Europe - Champions League
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by Carlos Zabala | in Champions League Picks
At the most crucial stage of the year, Arsenal's season seems to be imploding once again when it matters most. The Gunners lost the EFL Cup final and have just been knocked out of the FA Cup by Southampton; on Tuesday, they face a sensitive Champions League quarter-final match in Lisbon against Sporting CP.
These two domestic setbacks have caused Arsenal to lose their status as bookmakers' favorites to win this Champions League. This outcome is understandable, but it also follows a historical pattern in which Arsenal have fallen in the Champions League quarter-finals in 5 of their previous 8 appearances. Furthermore, Sporting Lisbon already knows what it's like to upset the Londoners in Europe; they eliminated them in the round of 16 of the 2022/2023 Europa League.
Despite Arsenal's resounding 5-1 victory over Sporting in Portugal last season, another significant historical fact is that Arsenal has never defeated a Portuguese club on home soil in European knockout ties.
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Sporting Lisbon vs Arsenal Form
Sporting Lisbon and Arsenal Latest Matches
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Apr 3, 2026 - Liga Portugal
Mar 22, 2026 - Liga Portugal
Mar 17, 2026 - Champions League
Mar 11, 2026 - Champions League
Mar 7, 2026 - Liga Portugal
Mar 3, 2026 - Taca de Portugal
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Apr 3, 2026 - Liga Portugal
Mar 17, 2026 - Champions League
Mar 3, 2026 - Taca de Portugal
Feb 27, 2026 - Liga Portugal
Feb 15, 2026 - Liga Portugal
Feb 5, 2026 - Taca de Portugal
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Mar 22, 2026 - Liga Portugal
Mar 11, 2026 - Champions League
Mar 7, 2026 - Liga Portugal
Feb 21, 2026 - Liga Portugal
Feb 9, 2026 - Liga Portugal
Jan 28, 2026 - Champions League
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Apr 4, 2026 - FA Cup
Mar 22, 2026 - Carabao Cup
Mar 17, 2026 - Champions League
Mar 14, 2026 - Premier League
Mar 11, 2026 - Champions League
Mar 7, 2026 - FA Cup
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Mar 22, 2026 - Carabao Cup
Mar 17, 2026 - Champions League
Mar 14, 2026 - Premier League
Mar 1, 2026 - Premier League
Feb 15, 2026 - FA Cup
Feb 7, 2026 - Premier League
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Apr 4, 2026 - FA Cup
Mar 11, 2026 - Champions League
Mar 7, 2026 - FA Cup
Mar 4, 2026 - Premier League
Feb 22, 2026 - Premier League
Feb 18, 2026 - Premier League
Sporting Lisbon against Arsenal : Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
60 %
40 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
Nov 26, 2024 - Champions League
Mar 16, 2023 - Europa League
Mar 9, 2023 - Europa League
Nov 8, 2018 - Europa League
Oct 25, 2018 - Europa League
Sporting Lisbon - Arsenal: Form Analysis
The Lisbon Lions are the current two-time Portuguese league champions, and their recent victories against Alverca and Santa Clara, in which they scored four goals in each match, have put them firmly back in contention for the title against Porto.
Unlike Arsenal, Sporting seems to thrive when it matters most.
Many had written them off after their 3-0 defeat in Norway to the surprising Bodø/Glimt, but they overturned the deficit in the return leg, winning 5-0 at the Estádio José Alvalade in a tie that went to extra time.
Sporting Lisbon have now won five consecutive Champions League matches at home, breaking the record for the best winning streak by a Portuguese team this season. This streak includes a resounding 2-1 victory against the current champions, Luis Enrique's PSG.
Arsenal, at least, seem to have the Premier League title practically in the bag. When the Champions League knockout stage draw was made, it was thought that the Gunners had the easiest path. They advanced past Bayer Leverkusen, but without a dominant performance, which raises doubts about whether or not they can stop the red-hot Lions of Lisbon.
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Sporting Lisbon against Arsenal Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Substitutes
D. Callai
J. Virginia
DefenderG. Vagiannidis
Quaresma
Z. Debast
R. Mangas
MidfielderD. Braganca
G. Kochorashvili
ForwardS. Faye
R. Nel
F. Goncalves
K. Ranson
K. Arrizabalaga
DefenderM. Salmon
C. Mosquera
MidfielderM. Lewis-Skelly
M. Dowman
A. Harriman-Annous
C. Norgaard
ForwardG. Martinelli
G. Jesus
K. Havertz
Missing players
F. Ioannidis
G. Quenda
K. Hein
DefenderJ. Timber
P. Hincapie
MidfielderM. Merino
ForwardE. Eze
B. Saka
Sporting Lisbon & Arsenal Squad Analysis
The way Sporting is structured is making them look less like a second-tier team compared to the European heavyweights. On the contrary, their squad boasts the best talent the club has seen in recent years.
Gonçalves, Trincão, Suárez: a competent trio for Sporting
Sporting let Gyökeres go to Arsenal, but they haven't missed him too much, as Colombian Luis Suárez is just one goal away from breaking the Swedish record for most goals in a single Champions League season by a Sporting CP player. His teammates Gonçalves and Trincão have had outstanding recent performances.
Injuries have struck Arsenal at the most inopportune moment. Arteta shuffled his squad to try and reduce the injury list before this crucial Champions League match, but Eze remains sidelined with a calf injury; Hincapié, Merino, Saka, and Trossard are all listed as doubtful.
Most goals and assists
Sporting Lisbon
Arsenal
L. Suarez
(5 Goals)
G. Martinelli
(6 Goals)
F. Trincao
(3 Assists)
L. Trossard
(5 Assists)
Sporting Lisbon - Arsenal Key Points
- Sporting CP generated an xG of 2.70 against Santa Clara on April 3
- Sporting CP completed 91% of their passes in the previous match
- Arsenal lost to Southampton despite being -250 favorites to win
- Arsenal's last six matches have featured exactly two or three goals
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Our Sporting Lisbon vs Arsenal Prediction
Less than a month ago, Arsenal were dreaming of winning four trophies, but now even the treble is out of reach after their cup exits. Invariably, this stirs up the Gunners' familiar specter of underperforming when it matters most, and playing Sporting in Portugal seems the antithesis of a timely remedy.
That's why there's value in backing Sporting Lisbon's handicap; Bodø/Glimt in the round of 16 was overwhelmed by the deafening atmosphere created by the fierce London fans, another factor working in the Lions' favor on Tuesday.
Our prediction for Sporting Portugal vs Arsenal is: Sporting to win no tie bet.
Sporting Lisbon vs Arsenal - Other Interesting Picks
Sporting Lisbon win the match
Luis Suarez tos score a goal
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