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by Travis Pulver in NCAA Picks
The SMU Mustangs will travel to Pennsylvania to take on the Penn State Nittany Lions on Saturday at Beaver Stadium in the first of three CFP games on the schedule. Kickoff is scheduled for 12 pm ET, and the game will be broadcast on TNT and streamed on Max.
Before the season got underway, SMU was nowhere near the college football playoff conversation. With +700 odds to make the CFP, they had just a 12.5% chance, but after steamrolling through the regular season and losing to Clemson in the ACC title game, the committee decided to give them a shot. If the offense can maintain a quick pace, it could keep the Penn State defense off balance. The defense will certainly pull out all the stops to put pressure on PSU quarterback Drew Allar.
But doing so may be easier said than done if Penn State has its way. The Nittany Lions will likely try to do what they can to keep the ball away from Kevin Jennings and the SMU offense by focusing on the run game. Now, SMU has the No. 7 rush defense in the country this season. However, the Mustangs didn't play too many tough run teams.
Establishing the run will be vital to Penn State winning this game. If they can't, the day may start with an upset (Penn State is favored by 8.5 points).
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SMU Mustangs vs Penn State Nittany Lions Form
SMU Mustangs and Penn State Nittany Lions Latest Matches
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SMU Mustangs - Penn State Nittany Lions Key Points
- Penn State and SMU have only played on two other occasions, once in 1948 (the game ended in a tie) and then again in 1978 (the Nittany Lions won 26-21).
- Both teams have run defenses ranked inside the top ten in the country (SMU—No. 7; Penn State—No. 10).
- Penn State is only 4-5 in postseason games under James Franklin.
- SMU is 7-9-1 all-time in bowl games and has lost in its last four appearances. The Mustangs' last bowl win was in the 2012 Hawaii Bowl vs. Fresno State.
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Our SMU Mustangs vs Penn State Nittany Lions Prediction
SMU's strength of schedule has come under fire since they got selected to the CFP over Alabama. However, similar dispersions should also be cast against Penn State. Yes, the Big Ten has a tougher reputation than the ACC. But the Nittany Lions were just 1-2 vs. ranked teams with a win over No. 19 Illinois and losses to NO. 4 Ohio State and No. 1 Oregon. SMU, on the other hand, was 2-1 vs. ranked teams. I think Penn State is getting more credit than it deserves for being competitive in its two losses, while SMU is not getting enough credit. However, I'm not confident enough in SMU to say they can win out, and I don't think the Nittany Lions will cover the spread.
Our SMU vs. Penn State Prediction : SMU +9
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