Jannik Sinner vs Alex De Minaur Prediction & Picks - ATP Beijing Open

Prediction published on 9/29/25, 10:20 PM  by Lou Aguila in Tennis Picks

Jannik Sinner of Italy will try to punch his ticket to the championship match of the 2025 China Open against the streaking Alex De Minaur of Australia on Tuesday.

Sinner, 10-0 head-to-head against De Minaur, is a -700 favorite against the Australian.

Current Form:

Sinner fended off a late-game rally from Fabian Marozsan to score a 6-1, 7-5 win and book his place in the semifinal of the 2025 China Open. Sinner demonstrated ball-striking at the highest level, winning 21 points behind the first serves and firing seven aces to capture 9 of 10 service games played. He also scored 28 return points, breaking Marozsan’s serves five times. Sinner, who has dropped to world’s No.2 following his US Open loss to Carlos Alcaraz several weeks ago, is eyeing his third consecutive championship match at the China Open. Sinner defeated Daniil Medvedev 7-6, 7-6 to win his first China Open title in 2023 before dropping a 7-6, 4-6, 6-7 loss to Alcaraz in last year’s final.

De Minaur reached the semifinal of the 2025 China Open without breaking a sweat after his scheduled opponent, Jakub Mensik, withdrew hours before their quarterfinal match. With the walkover victory, De Minaur has now won his last six hard-court matches, including two signature wins over Alexander Zverev 6-1, 6-4 and Mensik 6-3, 6-4 at the Laver Cup. De Minaur also bested Bu Yunchaokete 6-3, 6-4 in the second round and Arthur Rinderknech 6-3, 3-6, 7-6 in the third round. The Australian is 27-9 on the hard court in 2025.