Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners Prediction & Picks - MLB
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by Lou Aguila | in MLB Picks
The Boston Red Sox and the Seattle Mariners will kick off their series on Monday at Fenway Park.
The total has gone UNDER in 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two teams, making Under 8.0 runs an enticing option for bettors looking for a safe pick.
Current Form:
The Seattle Mariners have lost their last four games, including three straight losses to the Toronto Blue Jays. Over the last five games, the Mariners have averaged 1.6 runs per game and pitched to a 5.57 ERA.
The Boston Red Sox have also gone 1-4 in their last five games. At 74-63, the Red Sox sit in third place in the AL East, trailing the 78-59 New York Yankees by 4.5 games and the 82-54 Tampa Bay Rays by 8.5 games. Boston has struggled mightily on both sides of the ball lately, posting a 6.15 ERA and averaging 1.8 runs per game over their last five games.
Starting Pitchers: Red Sox LHP Payton Tolle (8-6. 3.09 ERA) vs. Mariners RHP George Kirby (9-10, 4.02 ERA)
The Matchup: Boston is 4-2 against Seattle in their last 6 meetings. The total has gone UNDER in 3 of their last 4 games.
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Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners Form
Table
| Teams | Pts | P | W | L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
9
|
0.537 | 162 | 87 | 75 |
|
22
|
0.469 | 162 | 76 | 86 |
Boston Red Sox and Seattle Mariners Latest Matches
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
Aug 30, 2026 - MLB
Aug 29, 2026 - MLB
Aug 29, 2026 - MLB
Aug 28, 2026 - MLB
Aug 26, 2026 - MLB
Aug 25, 2026 - MLB
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
Aug 23, 2026 - MLB
Aug 22, 2026 - MLB
Aug 21, 2026 - MLB
Aug 19, 2026 - MLB
Aug 18, 2026 - MLB
Aug 17, 2026 - MLB
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
Aug 30, 2026 - MLB
Aug 29, 2026 - MLB
Aug 29, 2026 - MLB
Aug 28, 2026 - MLB
Aug 26, 2026 - MLB
Aug 25, 2026 - MLB
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
Aug 30, 2026 - MLB
Aug 29, 2026 - MLB
Aug 28, 2026 - MLB
Aug 26, 2026 - MLB
Aug 25, 2026 - MLB
Aug 24, 2026 - MLB
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
Aug 26, 2026 - MLB
Aug 25, 2026 - MLB
Aug 24, 2026 - MLB
Aug 23, 2026 - MLB
Aug 22, 2026 - MLB
Aug 21, 2026 - MLB
1/6 (17%)
5/6 (83%)
Aug 30, 2026 - MLB
Aug 29, 2026 - MLB
Aug 28, 2026 - MLB
Aug 20, 2026 - MLB
Aug 19, 2026 - MLB
Aug 18, 2026 - MLB
Boston Red Sox against Seattle Mariners : Head to Head (H2H)
67 %
33 %
Jun 21, 2026 - MLB
Jun 20, 2026 - MLB
Jun 19, 2026 - MLB
Jun 18, 2025 - MLB
Jun 17, 2025 - MLB
Jun 16, 2025 - MLB
Boston Red Sox - Seattle Mariners Key Points
- Under is 5-0 in Tolle’s last 5 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 5-1-1 in the Red Sox’s last 7 vs. teams with winning records.
- The Mariners average 1.6 runs per game over their last five games.
- The Red Sox average 1.8 runs per game over their last five games.
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Our Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners Prediction
Key Stats: The Red Sox and the Mariners have averaged 2.4 combined runs per game over their last five games.
George Kirby has not allowed more than two runs in any of his last three starts against the Red Sox.
Peyton Tolle allowed three runs over six innings in his first start against the Mariners on June 21, 2026. Tolle has also posted a 2.37 ERA over his last five starts.
What to Expect: Count on Tolle and Kirby to deliver quality starts, taming two struggling offenses in this series opener. Again, the total has gone UNDER in 3 of their last 4 meetings, and it looks like Game 1 is heading to another low-scoring ballgame.
Fearless Forecast: Red Sox 3, Mariners 1
Our betting prediction for the Seattle Mariners vs. the Boston Red Sox: Under 8.0 runs
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