Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Prediction & Picks - LaLiga
Spain - LaLiga
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by Mikaella McIntosh | in LaLiga Picks
The final LaLiga game this weekend is the Madrid Derby, where Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid take to the stage at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu.
The hosts have built excellent momentum leading up to this clash, including Champions League victory in the week, so it’s only right to look at their offensive play, of which Federico Valverde has been included a lot more recently.
As a whole, averaging the second highest number of goals per home game, it’s no secret how much quality Real Madrid have; even in huge games, Los Blancos have been very intense and have created lots of chances, averaging 2.69 xG in games of this type. In these four games, Valverde has created ten goal attempts, as well as registering an impressive seven shots on goal in his last four.
With dropped points in two rather shocking results recently, against Getafe and Osasuna, Real Madrid haven’t been performing as they had been expected to, and trail four points off the leaders. It’s important for them that they do not fall further behind, so a win in this big game is vital.
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Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Form
Table
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2
|
86 | 38 | 27 | 5 | 6 | +42 |
|
4
|
69 | 38 | 21 | 6 | 11 | +18 |
Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid Latest Matches
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Mar 17, 2026 - Champions League
Mar 14, 2026 - LaLiga
Mar 11, 2026 - Champions League
Mar 6, 2026 - LaLiga
Mar 2, 2026 - LaLiga
Feb 25, 2026 - Champions League
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Mar 14, 2026 - LaLiga
Mar 11, 2026 - Champions League
Mar 2, 2026 - LaLiga
Feb 25, 2026 - Champions League
Feb 14, 2026 - LaLiga
Feb 1, 2026 - LaLiga
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Mar 17, 2026 - Champions League
Mar 6, 2026 - LaLiga
Feb 21, 2026 - LaLiga
Feb 17, 2026 - Champions League
Feb 8, 2026 - LaLiga
Jan 28, 2026 - Champions League
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Mar 18, 2026 - Champions League
Mar 14, 2026 - LaLiga
Mar 10, 2026 - Champions League
Mar 7, 2026 - LaLiga
Mar 3, 2026 - Copa del Rey
Feb 28, 2026 - LaLiga
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Mar 14, 2026 - LaLiga
Mar 10, 2026 - Champions League
Mar 7, 2026 - LaLiga
Feb 24, 2026 - Champions League
Feb 21, 2026 - LaLiga
Feb 12, 2026 - Copa del Rey
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Mar 18, 2026 - Champions League
Mar 3, 2026 - Copa del Rey
Feb 28, 2026 - LaLiga
Feb 18, 2026 - Champions League
Feb 15, 2026 - LaLiga
Feb 5, 2026 - Copa del Rey
Real Madrid against Atletico Madrid : Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
33 %
33 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
Jan 8, 2026 - Spanish Super Cup
Sep 27, 2025 - LaLiga
Mar 12, 2025 - Champions League
Mar 4, 2025 - Champions League
Feb 8, 2025 - LaLiga
Sep 29, 2024 - LaLiga
Real Madrid against Atletico Madrid Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Substitutes
S. Mestre
F. Gonzalez
DefenderD. Aguado
A. Carreras
T. Alexander-Arnold
D. Alaba
MidfielderE. Camavinga
J. Bellingham
Manuel Angel
ForwardG. Garcia
F. Mastantuono
K. Mbappe
M. De Luis
S. Esquivel Gamez
DefenderN. Molina
C. Lenglet
J. Gimenez
N. Gonzalez
A. Baena
O. Vargas
J. Diaz
ForwardT. Almada
A. Sorloth
Missing players
T. Courtois
DefenderF. Mendy
E. Militao
R. Asencio
MidfielderD. Ceballos
ForwardRodrygo
Endrick
J. Oblak
DefenderM. Pubill
MidfielderP. Barrios
R. Martinez Moya
Most goals and assists
Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid
K. Mbappe
(25 Goals)
A. Sorloth
(13 Goals)
A. Guler
(9 Assists)
G. Simeone
(6 Assists)
Real Madrid - Atletico Madrid Key Points
- Federico Valverde has produced at least one goal attempt in all of his last seven.
- Valverde shoots a lot more on home soil, including two shots on goal in their last home game, scoring one.
- Valverde has recorded ten goal attempts in four home games against the top six.
- Federico Valverde has registered seven shots on target in his last four games.
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Our Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Prediction
When it comes to playing against their Madrid counterparts, Valverde has a very good shooting record. I must specifically mention the two shots created, scoring one, against Los Colchoneros away from home in January.
The Uruguayan has been getting into the box a lot in recent games, putting himself on the end of crosses and through balls. In his last seven games, he’s produced 14 goal attempts, more importantly registering a dazzling seven shots on goal in his last four.
Given his offensive confidence as of late, clearly getting into excellent shooting positions, in what'll likely be a game of high intensity, the odds of +125 for Federico Valverde to have a shot on goal are very appealing.
Our Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Pick: Federico Valverde 1+ Shots on Target.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
