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by Erik Gibbs in WNBA Picks
The Phoenix Mercury face the Seattle Storm at Climate Pledge Arena today, and this matchup between brings plenty of intrigue, not just because of playoff implications, but also due to the contrast in form and styles. Phoenix enters at 19–13, boasting a strong scoring differential of +109, which is among the league’s best. Their offense ranks sixth at 83.1 points per game, while their defense sits fourth, giving up just 79.7.
On paper, those numbers suggest stability. However, the Mercury have faltered down the stretch, dropping two straight at home and going just 3-4 over their last seven contests both straight up and against the spread. That inconsistency has put them in a dangerous position at a time when momentum is everything.
Seattle, by contrast, sits at 17–17 and has been battling for its postseason life. The Storm recently snapped a six-game losing streak with an 80-78 win over Atlanta, a result that was far from convincing but vital for morale.
The victory allowed them to breathe easier in the battle for the final playoff spot, with the Sparks and Mystics still within striking distance. With tonight’s game at home, the Storm have an opportunity to build on that small burst of momentum and secure a stronger hold on their seeding.
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Phoenix Mercury vs Seattle Storm Form
Table
| Teams | % | P | W | L | Series |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2
|
0.594 | 32 | 19 | 13 | -2 |
|
5
|
0.5 | 34 | 17 | 17 | 1 |
Phoenix Mercury and Seattle Storm Latest Matches
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
Aug 15, 2025 - WNBA
Aug 10, 2025 - WNBA
Aug 7, 2025 - WNBA
Aug 5, 2025 - WNBA
Aug 3, 2025 - WNBA
Aug 1, 2025 - WNBA
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
Aug 15, 2025 - WNBA
Aug 10, 2025 - WNBA
Aug 7, 2025 - WNBA
Aug 5, 2025 - WNBA
Jul 23, 2025 - WNBA
Jul 9, 2025 - WNBA
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
Aug 3, 2025 - WNBA
Aug 1, 2025 - WNBA
Jul 30, 2025 - WNBA
Jul 27, 2025 - WNBA
Jul 25, 2025 - WNBA
Jul 16, 2025 - WNBA
1/6 (17%)
5/6 (83%)
Aug 15, 2025 - WNBA
Aug 13, 2025 - WNBA
Aug 10, 2025 - WNBA
Aug 8, 2025 - WNBA
Aug 5, 2025 - WNBA
Aug 3, 2025 - WNBA
1/6 (17%)
5/6 (83%)
Aug 13, 2025 - WNBA
Aug 5, 2025 - WNBA
Aug 3, 2025 - WNBA
Aug 1, 2025 - WNBA
Jul 22, 2025 - WNBA
Jul 16, 2025 - WNBA
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
Aug 15, 2025 - WNBA
Aug 10, 2025 - WNBA
Aug 8, 2025 - WNBA
Jul 28, 2025 - WNBA
Jul 26, 2025 - WNBA
Jul 24, 2025 - WNBA
Phoenix Mercury against Seattle Storm : Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
67 %
Jun 7, 2025 - WNBA
May 23, 2025 - WNBA
May 17, 2025 - WNBA
Sep 19, 2024 - WNBA
Sep 7, 2024 - WNBA
Jun 16, 2024 - WNBA
Phoenix Mercury - Seattle Storm Key Points
- The Storm are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games
- The Mercury are 5-10-1 ATS in their last 16 games
- The Over is 0-5 in Seattle's last 5 games
- The Over is 6-2 in Phoenix's last 8 games
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Our Phoenix Mercury vs Seattle Storm Prediction
Individually, both teams rely heavily on their stars. For Seattle, Nneka Ogwumike has been the go-to option, averaging 18.2 points and 7.3 rebounds. Skylar Diggins provides balance with 16 points and a team-leading 5.9 assists, while Britney Sykes, despite limited appearances, has produced an impressive 15.3 points per game. Gabby Williams (12.4 PPG) and Erica Wheeler (10.7 PPG) round out a supporting cast that must step up if the Storm are to maintain playoff positioning.
Phoenix leans on Satou Sabally, who has been their most consistent scorer at 17.3 points per game. Alyssa Thomas has been invaluable, contributing across the board with 16 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 9 assists on average, making her one of the most versatile players in the league. Kahleah Copper adds perimeter scoring, while veteran DeWanna Bonner provides leadership and secondary offensive support. Still, one of Phoenix’s major struggles has been closing out tight games, a weakness that could prove costly against a desperate Seattle team.
Seattle holds a 2-1 head-to-head advantage this season, and the Storm’s return home following their neutral-site win in Vancouver could give them a much-needed boost. Neither team has been reliable against the spread lately, but the situational edge, head-to-head history, and renewed confidence all lean slightly toward the Storm.
This one figures to be close, but Seattle’s playoff urgency combined with Phoenix’s shaky recent form makes the Storm a live underdog with momentum. Our prediction for Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury: Storm to win a close game.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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