New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction & Picks - MLB

See our betting tips for the next match between these two teams
New York Mets - Philadelphia Phillies Betting tips

USA - MLB

New York Mets
9/17/26 19:15
Philadelphia Phillies

Prediction:

 

Total Runs in 1st Five Innings - Under 4.5

-120
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 by Edgar Jibran in MLB Picks

This Thursday night brings the first game of the MLB series between the Philadelphia Phillies and the New York Mets, with odds suggesting the Mets are slight favorites to win. However, the Phillies are expected to show strong commitment to winning the series, as they still haven’t secured their Wild Card spot in the National League.

With that in mind, Aaron Nola’s start makes sense, as he’s the fourth-best pitcher on the roster in strikeouts through the regular season. Furthermore, it’s remarkable that Nola allowed fewer than three earned runs in his last nine starts, so he has a strong chance to dominate the Mets’ hitters in the first innings.

Meanwhile, the New York Mets are already eliminated, but having Nolan McLean on the mound usually pushes their limits, as he’s also very effective at striking out batters. Despite that, it cannot be forgotten that McLean had a very bad performance in his last start, allowing 5 earned runs against a powerful team like the Yankees. In this regard, he's also expected to face a difficult challenge against the Phillies’ power.

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Form

Table

Teams Pts P W L
6 Philadelphia Phillies
0.556 153 85 68
25 New York Mets
0.451 153 69 84

New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies Latest Matches

New York Mets
New York Mets Latest matches
L W L L L L
Victories

1/6 (17%)

Defeats

5/6 (83%)

Sep 16, 2026 - MLB

New York Mets
1 :  7
Baltimore Orioles

Sep 15, 2026 - MLB

New York Mets
5 :  7
Baltimore Orioles

Sep 14, 2026 - MLB

New York Mets
1 :  2
Baltimore Orioles

Sep 13, 2026 - MLB

New York Yankees
2 :  0
New York Mets

Sep 12, 2026 - MLB

New York Yankees
2 :  12
New York Mets

Sep 11, 2026 - MLB

New York Yankees
6 :  4
New York Mets
W L W L L L
Victories

2/6 (33%)

Defeats

4/6 (67%)

Sep 16, 2026 - MLB

New York Mets
1 :  7
Baltimore Orioles

Sep 15, 2026 - MLB

New York Mets
5 :  7
Baltimore Orioles

Sep 14, 2026 - MLB

New York Mets
1 :  2
Baltimore Orioles

Sep 6, 2026 - MLB

New York Mets
4 :  2
San Francisco Giants

Sep 5, 2026 - MLB

New York Mets
5 :  9
San Francisco Giants

Sep 4, 2026 - MLB

New York Mets
10 :  6
San Francisco Giants
W W W L W L
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Sep 13, 2026 - MLB

New York Yankees
2 :  0
New York Mets

Sep 12, 2026 - MLB

New York Yankees
2 :  12
New York Mets

Sep 11, 2026 - MLB

New York Yankees
6 :  4
New York Mets

Sep 9, 2026 - MLB

Miami Marlins
14 :  15
New York Mets

Sep 8, 2026 - MLB

Miami Marlins
5 :  7
New York Mets

Sep 7, 2026 - MLB

Miami Marlins
4 :  9
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies Latest matches
L L L W L W
Victories

2/6 (33%)

Defeats

4/6 (67%)

Sep 16, 2026 - MLB

Washington Nationals
0 :  3
Philadelphia Phillies

Sep 15, 2026 - MLB

Washington Nationals
6 :  3
Philadelphia Phillies

Sep 13, 2026 - MLB

Atlanta Braves
4 :  9
Philadelphia Phillies

Sep 12, 2026 - MLB

Atlanta Braves
12 :  2
Philadelphia Phillies

Sep 11, 2026 - MLB

Atlanta Braves
6 :  5
Philadelphia Phillies

Sep 10, 2026 - MLB

Philadelphia Phillies
1 :  2
Houston Astros
W L W L W L
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Defeats

3/6 (50%)

Sep 10, 2026 - MLB

Philadelphia Phillies
1 :  2
Houston Astros

Sep 9, 2026 - MLB

Philadelphia Phillies
11 :  7
Houston Astros

Sep 8, 2026 - MLB

Philadelphia Phillies
5 :  6
Houston Astros

Sep 7, 2026 - MLB

Philadelphia Phillies
1 :  0
Atlanta Braves

Sep 6, 2026 - MLB

Philadelphia Phillies
4 :  5
Atlanta Braves

Sep 5, 2026 - MLB

Philadelphia Phillies
4 :  2
Atlanta Braves
L L L W L W
Victories

2/6 (33%)

Defeats

4/6 (67%)

Sep 16, 2026 - MLB

Washington Nationals
0 :  3
Philadelphia Phillies

Sep 15, 2026 - MLB

Washington Nationals
6 :  3
Philadelphia Phillies

Sep 13, 2026 - MLB

Atlanta Braves
4 :  9
Philadelphia Phillies

Sep 12, 2026 - MLB

Atlanta Braves
12 :  2
Philadelphia Phillies

Sep 11, 2026 - MLB

Atlanta Braves
6 :  5
Philadelphia Phillies

Sep 2, 2026 - MLB

Arizona Diamondbacks
1 :  0
Philadelphia Phillies

New York Mets against Philadelphia Phillies : Head to Head (H2H)

New York Mets

50 %

Philadelphia Phillies

50 %

Jul 19, 2026 - MLB

Philadelphia Phillies
1 :  6
New York Mets

Jul 18, 2026 - MLB

Philadelphia Phillies
6 :  1
New York Mets

Jul 16, 2026 - MLB

Philadelphia Phillies
1 :  4
New York Mets

Jun 28, 2026 - MLB

New York Mets
4 :  5
Philadelphia Phillies

Jun 27, 2026 - MLB

New York Mets
6 :  2
Philadelphia Phillies

Jun 26, 2026 - MLB

New York Mets
1 :  2
Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks

New York Mets - Philadelphia Phillies Key Points

  1. The Philadelphia Phillies are 1.5 games above the National League Wild Card spots, so winning as many games as possible is a top priority.
  2. The New York Mets had Marcus Semien, the only player to record 1 run batted in during their most recent game against the Orioles.
  3. The Philadelphia Phillies have Kyle Schwarber, the only batter to hit more than 40 home runs this season.
  4. The New York Mets saw Nolan McNeal record 4 or more strikeouts in his last four starts.

Our New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

As given, even though the New York Mets will face this game with a very competitive lineup, there aren’t big chances for them to defeat such a motivated and dangerous team like the Philadelphia Phillies. Nevertheless, the Phillies really aren’t expected to obliterate the Mets, especially after losing their most recent series against the Atlanta Braves.

In conclusion, both starting pitchers are expected to deliver an amazing spectacle in the first innings, so the chances of many runs on the scoreboard aren’t high. Therefore, the pick for the Philadelphia Phillies – New York Mets is: Total Runs in 1st Five Innings – Under 4.5!

Prediction:

 

Total Runs in 1st Five Innings - Under 4.5

-120
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.