Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction & Picks - MLB

USA - MLB

Miami Marlins
7/27/26 18:40
Philadelphia Phillies

Prediction:

 

Under 7.5 Total Runs

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 by Matt Lowrimore in MLB Picks

A 12-game MLB slate is scheduled for Monday, one of which will feature a matchup in the National League East division between the Miami Marlins and the Philadelphia Phillies. Let’s take a look at the match statistics and predictions for this game between the Marlins and the Phillies.

Philadelphia enters this game as a top 10 team in the league and is currently in second place in the National League East division. Starting this game for the Phillies will be Zack Wheeler, who has a record of 10-2 and an ERA of 2.16. More importantly, Wheeler has been lights out on the road this season, suggesting he will be able to limit the Marlins’ offense. 

As for Miami, they enter this game hovering around .500 and are currently in fourth place in the National League East division. For Game 1 of this series, the Marlins are scheduled to start Tyler Phillips, who has a record of 2-5 and an ERA of 3.52. While his overall numbers have been decent, Phillips has been much better when pitching at home and could have similar success, even against the Phillies’ offense.

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Form

Table

Teams Pts P W L
7 Philadelphia Phillies
0.538 106 57 49
18 Miami Marlins
0.491 106 52 54

Miami Marlins and Philadelphia Phillies Latest Matches

Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins Latest matches
L L L L L L
Victories

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

6/6 (100%)

Jul 26, 2026 - MLB

Miami Marlins
3 :  5
San Diego Padres

Jul 25, 2026 - MLB

Miami Marlins
2 :  7
San Diego Padres

Jul 24, 2026 - MLB

Miami Marlins
2 :  4
San Diego Padres

Jul 22, 2026 - MLB

Houston Astros
5 :  2
Miami Marlins

Jul 21, 2026 - MLB

Houston Astros
5 :  3
Miami Marlins

Jul 20, 2026 - MLB

Houston Astros
8 :  5
Miami Marlins
L L L L L L
Victories

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

6/6 (100%)

Jul 26, 2026 - MLB

Miami Marlins
3 :  5
San Diego Padres

Jul 25, 2026 - MLB

Miami Marlins
2 :  7
San Diego Padres

Jul 24, 2026 - MLB

Miami Marlins
2 :  4
San Diego Padres

Jul 12, 2026 - MLB

Miami Marlins
2 :  5
Cleveland Guardians

Jul 11, 2026 - MLB

Miami Marlins
1 :  4
Cleveland Guardians

Jul 10, 2026 - MLB

Miami Marlins
2 :  3
Cleveland Guardians
L L L L L L
Victories

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

6/6 (100%)

Jul 22, 2026 - MLB

Houston Astros
5 :  2
Miami Marlins

Jul 21, 2026 - MLB

Houston Astros
5 :  3
Miami Marlins

Jul 20, 2026 - MLB

Houston Astros
8 :  5
Miami Marlins

Jul 19, 2026 - MLB

Milwaukee Brewers
3 :  1
Miami Marlins

Jul 18, 2026 - MLB

Milwaukee Brewers
8 :  6
Miami Marlins

Jul 17, 2026 - MLB

Milwaukee Brewers
2 :  1
Miami Marlins
Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies Latest matches
W L L L L W
Victories

2/6 (33%)

Defeats

4/6 (67%)

Jul 26, 2026 - MLB

Philadelphia Phillies
11 :  4
New York Yankees

Jul 25, 2026 - MLB

Philadelphia Phillies
1 :  3
New York Yankees

Jul 24, 2026 - MLB

Philadelphia Phillies
0 :  1
New York Yankees

Jul 22, 2026 - MLB

Philadelphia Phillies
5 :  9
Los Angeles Dodgers

Jul 21, 2026 - MLB

Philadelphia Phillies
1 :  2
Los Angeles Dodgers

Jul 20, 2026 - MLB

Philadelphia Phillies
10 :  7
Los Angeles Dodgers
W L L L L W
Victories

2/6 (33%)

Defeats

4/6 (67%)

Jul 26, 2026 - MLB

Philadelphia Phillies
11 :  4
New York Yankees

Jul 25, 2026 - MLB

Philadelphia Phillies
1 :  3
New York Yankees

Jul 24, 2026 - MLB

Philadelphia Phillies
0 :  1
New York Yankees

Jul 22, 2026 - MLB

Philadelphia Phillies
5 :  9
Los Angeles Dodgers

Jul 21, 2026 - MLB

Philadelphia Phillies
1 :  2
Los Angeles Dodgers

Jul 20, 2026 - MLB

Philadelphia Phillies
10 :  7
Los Angeles Dodgers
W L W L W W
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Jul 12, 2026 - MLB

Detroit Tigers
0 :  5
Philadelphia Phillies

Jul 11, 2026 - MLB

Detroit Tigers
2 :  4
Philadelphia Phillies

Jul 10, 2026 - MLB

Detroit Tigers
10 :  2
Philadelphia Phillies

Jul 9, 2026 - MLB

Cincinnati Reds
0 :  1
Philadelphia Phillies

Jul 8, 2026 - MLB

Cincinnati Reds
11 :  5
Philadelphia Phillies

Jul 7, 2026 - MLB

Cincinnati Reds
1 :  4
Philadelphia Phillies

Miami Marlins against Philadelphia Phillies : Head to Head (H2H)

Miami Marlins

33 %

Philadelphia Phillies

67 %

Jun 17, 2026 - MLB

Philadelphia Phillies
4 :  12
Miami Marlins

Jun 16, 2026 - MLB

Philadelphia Phillies
8 :  2
Miami Marlins

Jun 15, 2026 - MLB

Philadelphia Phillies
7 :  0
Miami Marlins

May 4, 2026 - MLB

Miami Marlins
0 :  1
Philadelphia Phillies

May 3, 2026 - MLB

Miami Marlins
2 :  7
Philadelphia Phillies

May 2, 2026 - MLB

Miami Marlins
4 :  0
Philadelphia Phillies
Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks

Miami Marlins - Philadelphia Phillies Key Points

  1. Zack Wheeler has an ERA of 2.16 this season
  2. Zack Wheeler has an ERA of 1.73 on the road this season
  3. Tyler Phillips has an ERA of 3.52 this season
  4. Tyler Phillips has an ERA of 1.41 at home this season

Our Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

The Phillies are the clear favorite in this game; however, the under looks to be the best betting option. This goes directly to the home/away splits between the two starting pitchers.

Wheeler has made nine away starts this season, in which he has allowed 11 earned runs over 57.1 innings. Phillips, on the other hand, has made 14 home appearances (five starts), where he has allowed eight runs (seven earned) over 44.2 innings. 

It is true that many of the games between these two teams this season have gone over the total. That said, because this matchup has two starting pitchers who allow very few runs, our Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies prediction is: Under 7.5 Total Runs.

Prediction:

 

Under 7.5 Total Runs

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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.