Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction & Picks - MLB
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by Dan Angell in MLB Picks
The Philadelphia Phillies (57-30 SU, 47-40 ATS) begin a three-game series with the Atlanta Braves (47-38 SU, 39-46 ATS) that will provide a clue as to whether the race for the NL East will be competitive. The Phils lead the division by 10 games, in part because they have teed off on the rest of the National League. Philadelphia is 44-23 against NL opponents, while Atlanta actually has a losing record against its own league. The Braves sit in second in the NL East because they’ve gotten healthy off the American League, but they haven’t shown they can beat the teams they’re actually competing with.
The Braves also haven’t proven that they can handle the Phillies. Atlanta has won the past five NL East crowns, but their past two campaigns have ended in the same place: in the NLDS against Philadelphia. And unlike past seasons, these Phillies can pitch throughout the game, as their bullpen is now one of the best in the National League.
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Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Form
Table
| Teams | Pts | P | W | L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2
|
0.586 | 162 | 95 | 67 |
|
9
|
0.549 | 162 | 89 | 73 |
Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies Latest Matches
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Atlanta Braves against Philadelphia Phillies : Head to Head (H2H)
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Atlanta Braves - Philadelphia Phillies Key Points
- The over has not cashed in any of the past eight Atlanta games.
- The over has cashed in four straight Phillies games.
- The Braves have not scored more than three runs in eight of their past 10 games.
- The Phillies have covered in five of their past six wins.
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Our Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction
Other than one ugly showing at Boston, Aaron Nola has pitched pretty consistently for Philadelphia. The Phillies’ starter has pitched through six complete innings in eight of his past nine starts, including a complete game shutout the last time he pitched in an NL East opponent’s park.
Max Fried has been just as effective for Atlanta. The Braves’ left-hander has held his opponent to three runs or less in eight of his past nine starts, with the lone exception coming against Baltimore’s MLB-leading offense. He’s tended to pitch pretty well against Philadelphia, as the Phillies haven’t beaten him since Oct. 2022. Granted, that game was a playoff game, but the point holds that Atlanta tends to be successful in this matchup when Fried takes the hill. With Nola and Fried both pitching fairly well right now and this game in Atlanta instead of Philadelphia’s small park, our prediction for Philadelphia vs. Atlanta is Under 7.5 Runs.
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