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by Tyler Doty | in NBA Picks
Game 3 of the NBA Finals is here, and the dynamics of the series are starting to shift. After the first two games were played in Oklahoma City, the action now moves to Indianapolis. The Indiana Pacers are looking to grab their second win of the series, but the Thunder are determined to take this pivotal Game 3 and seize the psychological edge.
We’re expecting another game with solid scoring, much like what we saw in the first two matchups.
Oklahoma City dropped one of its two home games—a bigger achievement for Indiana than many analysts expected. Now the Thunder are aiming to take back home-court advantage by stealing a win in Indy. A Game 3 win would put major pressure on the Pacers. But a loss would put OKC on the hot seat.
The Pacers pulled off a surprise win in Game 1, only to get blown out in Game 2. That’s left questions hanging in the air—was the second game a true reflection of the gap between the teams, or was the first game just a lucky punch? Indiana needs to make a statement now and will look to turn Gainbridge Fieldhouse into a madhouse. Their passionate fans are ready to create an electric atmosphere.
The last five games between these two teams in Indianapolis have been pretty evenly matched. OKC holds a narrow 3-2 edge, but one of those wins came in overtime after regulation ended in a tie.
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Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers Form
Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers Latest Matches
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Oklahoma City Thunder against Indiana Pacers : Head to Head (H2H)
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Oklahoma City Thunder - Indiana Pacers: Form Analysis
Indiana has gone 3-2 over its last five games overall, a solid run. That same 3-2 record also holds for their last five home games, suggesting the Pacers don’t have a significant home-court edge right now. Their performances in Indy have been more or less on par with their road efforts.
That said, their recent home showings against the Knicks in the Eastern Conference Finals were explosive. The Pacers put up 130 and 125 points in those two games. On the flip side, they’ve also held opponents under 110 points in three of their last five home contests, an encouraging sign on the defensive end.
In fact, across their two most recent home games in the conference semifinals, the Pacers averaged 127.5 points.
Oklahoma City also holds a 3-2 record over its last five games, but their road form raises some eyebrows. The Thunder are just 2-3 in their last five away matchups, a slight concern for a team seen as the favorite.
Offensively, OKC has cracked 107 points just once in that five-game road stretch, averaging only 106.4 points per game. Defensively, the issues may be even bigger; they’ve allowed more than 112 points in four of those five games. That could be a real problem heading into a hostile Indiana environment.
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Oklahoma City Thunder & Indiana Pacers Squad Analysis
The Indiana Pacers head into Game 3 of the NBA Finals with a clean bill of health. Tyrese Haliburton will start at point guard alongside Andrew Nembhard in the backcourt. Pascal Siakam and Aaron Nesmith will handle the wings, while Myles Turner anchors the middle at center.
In Game 2 against the Thunder, only Haliburton really played up to his usual standard. The Pacers will need more offensive punch from Pascal Siakam, in particular. The team is optimistic that a return to home court will spark him. Siakam is known for stringing together standout performances in short bursts, and Indiana could really use one of those right now.
The Pacers need Pascal Siakam to be more of a difference-maker.
For Oklahoma City, the starting lineup remains the same: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Cason Wallace in the backcourt, Jalen Williams and Luguentz Dort on the wings, and Chet Holmgren at center. Gilgeous-Alexander was dominant in Game 2, dropping 34 points and dishing out eight assists to carry the Thunder to victory.
Still, not everyone on OKC found their rhythm. Luguentz Dort struggled on both ends, and Cason Wallace had a relatively quiet game compared to Indiana’s guards. Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren delivered solid performances, and that was enough, largely because Indiana simply didn’t show up at the level they needed to.
Oklahoma City Thunder - Indiana Pacers Key Points
- Four of the last five games played in Indianapolis have gone over 228.5 total points.
- Indiana has averaged a solid 109.0 points per game through the first two games of the Finals.
- Both of those games cleared the 228.5-point mark in total scoring.
- Oklahoma City, meanwhile, is averaging 116.5 points per game over the first two contests.
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Our Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers Prediction
The Indiana Pacers need to recapture the energy they brought in Game 1 and find a way to stay competitive deep into Game 3. While OKC has looked like the stronger team overall, they did let the Pacers mount a comeback in the opener, something that may be harder to pull off again. For Indiana, Game 3 could be the defining moment of the Finals. This is crunch time.
As for OKC, the game plan is simple: just keep doing what they’ve been doing. The Thunder have played outstanding basketball in both games so far, though they may have underestimated Indiana a bit in Game 1. That wasn’t the case in Game 2.
We’re expecting a tight, hard-fought battle in Game 3, one that could go either way, but we slightly favor Oklahoma City to edge it.
Our Pacers vs. Thunder Game 3 prediction: Over 228.5 total points.
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