Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction & Picks - ATP US Open

Prediction published on 9/5/25, 11:01 AM  by Lou Aguila in ATP US Open Picks

Carlos Alcaraz will walk into Friday’s semifinal clash with Novak Djokovic as the consensus favorite to advance into the men’s singles championship match at the 2025 US Open.

However, it’s worth noting that Alcaraz has never beaten the 24-time Grand Slam winner in a hard-court match. Caesars Sportsbook has booked Alcaraz at -380, while Djokovic carries +290 value on the moneyline.

Current Form:

Alcaraz will be taking an 11-match win streak into his 9th career showdown with Djokovic. Alcaraz, who ruled this year’s Cincinnati Open after forcing archrival Jannik Sinner to withdraw in the first set of their championship match, has put together a dominant campaign at this year’s US Open. Alcaraz has swept Reilly Opelka in the first round 6-4 7-5 6-4, Mattia Bellucci 6-1 6-0 6-3, Luciano Darderi 6-2 6-4 6-0, Arthur Rinderknech 7-6(3) 6-3 6-4, and Jiri Lehecka 6-4 6-2 6-4 to reach the final four stage without dropping a set.

Djokovic defeated Taylor Fritz in four sets 6-3 7-5 3-6 6-4 to reach the semifinal of all four Grand Slam tournaments this year. At 38 years old, Djokovic continues to be a force at the Grand Slam stage, overpowering opponents who are significantly younger than him. Djokovic has taken down Learner Tien 6-1 7-6(3) 6-2, Zachary Svajda 6-7(5) 6-3 6-3 6-1, Cameron Norrie 6-4 6-7(4) 6-2 6-3, Jan-Lennard Struff 6-3 6-3 6-2 and Taylor Fritz 6-3 6-3 6-2 to reach the final four of the US Open for the 14th time.