Colorado Rockies vs New York Mets Prediction & Picks - MLB

Prediction published on 5/6/26, 5:23 PM  by Lou Aguila | Modified on 5/10/26 at 11:38 PM in MLB Picks

With the New York Mets and the Colorado Rockies combining for only 6 runs in both Games 1 and 2, the Under 9.5 runs (-110) emerges as the best pick for Wednesday’s series finale.

Current Form:

The New York Mets opened as the favorite at -165 moneyline and -105 on a 1.5-run handicap after winning 3 of their last 4 games, including a 4-2 win over Colorado in Game 1.

Holding a 3.91 ERA this season, the Mets have tightened their pitching recently, surrendering only 10 earned runs over the last four games. On the flipside, New York’s offense continues to be mediocre by averaging 3.5 runs per game on a .234 BA during this five-game stretch.

The Colorado Rockies have lost their last five games, falling to 14-22 in the season. Listed as +143 home underdogs for Game 2, the Rockies have been scoring 6.0 runs per game during this five-game losing skid, though their pitching has also given up over 7 runs per contest or a 7.16 ERA.

Starting Pitchers: Mets RHP Freddy Peralta (1-3, 3.52 ERA) vs. Rockies RHP Michael Lorenzen (2-3, 6.09 ERA).

Peralta is coming off a strong mound appearance against the Nationals on April 30, giving up one earned run over six innings in a 5-4 win. He hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a game across his last three starts against Colorado.

Lorenzen yielded four runs over 5.1 innings in his last start on April 30 against the Cincinnati Reds. Nevertheless, the Rockies hurler should offer a stiff test for the Mets, who could not even average more than 2.0 runs per game (1.7 runs) across the last three faceoffs against the pitcher.