Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots Prediction & Picks - NFL
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by Bill Christy | in NFL Picks
The AFC Championship game is set with two teams that not many expected at the start of the season. The New England Patriots (14-3) have risen to prominence once again and will head into Empower Field to take on the Denver Broncos (14-3). The winner will be the 1st team to earn a seat at the Super Bowl, as the NFC Championship will take place later in the day.
Throughout the season, the Broncos relied heavily on their defense, which finished 3rd in the entire league in points allowed per game (18.3). Patrick Surtain II missed most of November but has been a key in bolstering the defense late in the season and into the postseason. He is arguably the best cornerback in the league. Offensively, the Broncos ran a balanced attack, but were driven by the play of Bo Nix under center. Now that he is out with an ankle injury, unproven Jarrett Stidham will be thrust into the spotlight.
New England, on paper, looks like the most complete football team in the league. They finished the season 2nd in scoring with 28.8 points per game and held opponents to just 18.8 points per game. Drake Maye has led the offense with the poise of a veteran and leaned on Stefon Diggs to make big plays in the passing game when needed. Rhamondre Stevenson and Treveyon Henderson have been one of the best backfield duos in the league through the latter part of the season.
Denver will have its hands full against this Patriots offense, but the key is going to be whether Stidham can do enough on offense to keep Denver within striking distance late in the game.
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Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots Form
Denver Broncos and New England Patriots Latest Matches
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Denver Broncos - New England Patriots: Form Analysis
New England made easy work of the Chargers in their first game of the postseason. The defense had the spotlight on them as they held the Chargers to just 3 points. Drake Maye struggled in his postseason debut but did toss a late touchdown pass to Hunter Henry to seal the game at 16-3. They followed that up with another dominating defensive performance against the Texans. They were able to sack CJ Stroud 5 times and cause 5 turnovers in the 28-16 victory.
Denver had secured a bye for the opening round and faced off with Buffalo in the divisional round. The game was possibly the best game of the playoffs as it was back and forth all game before heading into overtime. There, Bo Nix led a drive that finished with a Wil Lutz game-winning field goal, but left the Broncos without their star QB going forward.
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Denver Broncos & New England Patriots Squad Analysis
The big story for the Broncos is that they will be without Bo Nix in this game and the rest of the season. He suffered a season-ending ankle injury on the final drive of the win over Buffalo last week. Now, Jarret Stidham, will be forced to start for the Broncos in the most important game of his career. Stidham has not taken a snap all season, which will be an obvious concern. However, he will be motivated. Not only is this an opportunity to shine on the brightest stage, but he gets to do so against the franchise that drafted him in 2019, only to let him go to 2 years later.
Overall, for the Patriots, there are no real injury concerns. Hunter Henry, Treyveon Henderson, and Mack Hollins were all full participants this week. All three are set to be a part of the offensive game plan against the Broncos, so it is a good sign that they are no longer in a “limited” capacity.
Denver Broncos - New England Patriots Key Points
- Denver is playing without Bo Nix for the first time. Stidham will take his 1st snap under center all season in this game.
- Denver will need to control the time of possession to keep this game close.
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver’s last 6 games when playing as the underdog.
- The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Denver’s last 10 games against an opponent in the AFC.
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Our Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots Prediction
This spread looks like a complete trap. Denver is playing without the most important piece of their offense and are only getting 4.5 points in most sportsbooks. The public is heavily on the Patriots and the line has continued to stay put. If we had to play a side, we would lean to the Broncos in this case. However, we believe the safer play is on the under. If Denver is going to stay in this game, they are going to do so with their defense. Both defenses can take away the offense’s best weapons and we expect to see that happen on Sunday.
Our prediction for Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots: Under 42.5
Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots - Other Interesting Picks
Rhamondre Stevenson 50+ Rushing Yards
Stevenson has hit this mark in 5 of his last 6 games. The only miss was against the Jets where he finished with 47.
Denver allowed James Cook to go over 110 rushing yards last game.
K'Lavon Chiasson to record a sack
K'Lavon Chiasson has recorded a sack in each of his last 3 games.
Jarrett Stidham has been sacked 7 times in his 2 career starts with the Broncos.
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