Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens Prediction & Picks - WTA US Open
WTA - WTA US Open
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by Bradley Gibbs | in Tennis Picks
A star of the US Open in recent times, Naomi Osaka, who has twice won this prestigious event, is looking to build on her semi-final exit in 2025. The four-time Grand Slam winner takes on Elise Mertens in the third round. Unlike her opponent, Mertens has never won a Grand Slam, but she has reached the quarters of the US Open on two previous occasions, while her recent hard-court form is strong, so let's not rush to dismiss her here.
Beating Naomi Osaka at Flushing Meadows is far from easy, and it may well be that the two-time US Open winner has too much in the locker for Elise Mertens. However, we did see Osaka wobble slightly during the previous round, while Mertens is a serious competitor, so if Osaka isn't quite at her best, there's no reason why the Belgian player can't get seriously competitive here. She has, after all, won two of her last three hard-court matches against Osaka.
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Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens Form
Naomi Osaka and Elise Mertens Latest Matches
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
Sep 3, 2026 - WTA US Open
Aug 31, 2026 - WTA US Open
Aug 11, 2026 - WTA National Bank Open
Aug 9, 2026 - WTA National Bank Open
Aug 7, 2026 - WTA National Bank Open
Aug 5, 2026 - WTA National Bank Open
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
Sep 3, 2026 - WTA US Open
Sep 1, 2026 - WTA US Open
Aug 29, 2026 - WTA Monterrey Open
Aug 28, 2026 - WTA Monterrey Open
Aug 27, 2026 - WTA Monterrey Open
Aug 26, 2026 - WTA Monterrey Open
Naomi Osaka against Elise Mertens : Head to Head (H2H)
75 %
25 %
Aug 7, 2026 - WTA National Bank Open
Jun 23, 2026 - WTA Bad Homburg Open
Aug 8, 2024 - WTA National Bank Open
Jun 11, 2024 - WTA Libema Open
Naomi Osaka - Elise Mertens Key Points
- Elise Mertens has won two of her last three hard-court matches against Naomi Osaka.
- Naomi Osaka dropped a set against a lower-ranked player during the previous round.
- On the North American hard-court swing, Elise Mertens has lost only one out of nine matches in straight sets.
- Naomi Osaka has won just one of her four recent hard-court matches against top-20 players in straight sets.
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Our Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens Prediction
Will it be a surprise if Naomi Osaka wins this match in straight sets? Not really. However, it also won't be a sizable shock if Elise Mertens manages to push the two-time US Open winner all the way into a third set, which is exactly what the lower-ranked Katerina Siniakova did during the previous round. In that match, Osaka made plenty of mistakes, not looking quite at her best, so Mertens, who has previously defeated Osaka, looks to have a slightly greater chance of avoiding a straight-set defeat than the early odds indicate.
Our Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens Pick: Elise Mertens +1.5 Set Handicap.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
