Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction & Picks - MLB
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by Lou Aguila in MLB Picks
Posted at +158 to cover -1.5 runs in Game 1 against the Milwaukee Brewers, the Pittsburgh Pirates will turn to starter Braxton Aschraft, who has guided them to a win in his last four starts.
Current Form:
The Pittsburgh Pirates will try to barge into the winner’s circle as they host the Milwaukee Brewers. After blowing out the Atlanta Braves 12-4 in Game 1, the Pirates dropped Game 2 (0-3) and Game 3 (5-10), losing that series and sliding to 47-47 in the season.
The Brewers are red-hot coming into a fresh series with the Pirates. Milwaukee has won five of its last six games and seven of its last three games. The Brewers hold the No.1 spot in the NL Central standings with a 59-34 record.
Starting Pitchers:
Brewers RHP Brandon Sproat (3-4, 5.13 ERA) has not given up more than two runs in any of his last three starts. He has posted a 3.14 ERA over his last five mound appearances.
Pirates RHP Braxton Ashcraft (9-3, 3.24 ERA) has pitched to a 3.14 ERA over his last five starts. In his last outing against the Nationals on July 4, Ashcraft allowed one earned run over 5.2 inning to power his team to a 7-1 win.
The Matchup: The Brewers may have won eight of their last 10 meetings with the Pirates, but Pittsburgh will try to bank on their hot offense and Ashcraft to get one over Milwaukee.
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers Form
Table
| Teams | Pts | P | W | L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2
|
0.634 | 93 | 59 | 34 |
|
14
|
0.5 | 94 | 47 | 47 |
Pittsburgh Pirates and Milwaukee Brewers Latest Matches
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Pittsburgh Pirates against Milwaukee Brewers : Head to Head (H2H)
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Pittsburgh Pirates - Milwaukee Brewers Key Points
- Pirates RHP Braxton Ashcraft (9-3, 3.24 ERA) has pitched to a 3.14 ERA over his last five starts.
- The Pirates average 4.0 runs per game in the last three games vs. the Brewers
- The Brewers average 2.0 runs per game in the last three games vs. the Pirates
- Brewers RHP Brandon Sproat (3-4, 5.13 ERA) has never faced the Pirates before.
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Our Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction
Fearless Forecast: the Pirates defend home field in Game 1, 7-3
The Difference Maker: The Pirates are fielding the pitcher who has guided them to a win in his last four starts. Aside from his strong 3.14 ERA over his last five starts, Ashcraft blanked the Brewers through three innings in his first outing against the team on June 25, 2025.
The Pirates also have the offense to back up Ashcraft in this match. Pittsburgh is averaging 7.2 runs per game on a .282 clip over its last five games.
Brewers’ starter Sproat has been terrific in his last three starts, but it will be interesting to see if he can sustain this pitching form against the Pirates’ high-calibre offence.
What to Expect: The Pirates get a quality start from Ashcraft and another explosive offensive night from their batting lineup (4.0 runs per game in the last three games vs. the Brewers) to dismantle Milwaukee at home.
Our betting prediction for the Milwaukee Brewers vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates: The Pirates -1.5 Runs
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