Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction & Picks - MLB
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by Lou Aguila | in MLB Picks
Fresh off a three-game sweep of the defending World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers, the Pittsburgh Pirates look to stay hot as they host the Milwaukee Brewers on Friday at PNC Park.
The Pirates are coming in as enticing +130 underdogs in Game 1 against the Brewers, who went 1-3 in their last four games.
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The Pirates completed a three-game sweep of the Los Angeles Dodgers this week, improving their record to 64-77. Pittsburgh has been a terrific pitching club this season with an elite 3.87 ERA. However, the Pirates have taken their pitching prowess to a whole new level over the last five games, during which they have lowered their ERA to an impressive 2.86. The Pirates have also bumped up their run production from their season average of 3.3 runs per game to 6.5 runs over this five-game stretch.
The Brewers have lost three of their last four games, including two against the Phillies in the previous series. Milwaukee still lords atop the NL Central with an 86-55 record, but they are facing constant pressure from the trailing Chicago Cubs, who trail them by 5.5 games with plenty of regular-season baseball left in September. Over the last five games, the Brewers have averaged a modest 4.2 runs per game and 4.09 ERA, with their starters surrendering a 5.19 ERA across five games.
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers Form
Table
| Teams | Pts | P | W | L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
0.599 | 162 | 97 | 65 |
|
26
|
0.438 | 162 | 71 | 91 |
Pittsburgh Pirates and Milwaukee Brewers Latest Matches
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
Sep 4, 2025 - MLB
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6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
Sep 4, 2025 - MLB
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4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
Aug 31, 2025 - MLB
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3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
Sep 4, 2025 - MLB
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2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
Sep 4, 2025 - MLB
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3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
Aug 31, 2025 - MLB
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Pittsburgh Pirates against Milwaukee Brewers : Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
67 %
Aug 13, 2025 - MLB
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Pittsburgh Pirates - Milwaukee Brewers Key Points
- Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games against Pittsburgh.
- Milwaukee is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh.
- Pittsburgh is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Milwaukee.
- Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games.
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Our Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction
Key Stat: Brewers starter Quinn Priester is 5-0 with a 3.33 ERA in his last five starts.
Priester will be the difference-maker in this intriguing series-opener between the Brewers and the Pirates. Priester, who blanked the Toronto Blue Jays through 6.0 innings in his last start on August 30, has surrendered an average of 2.0 runs across his last five starts. Moreover, the Brewers managed to win by at least two runs in 4 of Priester’s last five mound appearances. The Brewers hold an impressive 45-24 record against the spread this season.
The Pirates have lost their last five meetings against the Brewers. Also, in their last three faceoffs, Pittsburgh has been outscored by the Brewers by a wide margin. Pittsburgh has averaged 2.0 runs per game while letting Milwaukee average 11.0 runs per game. Although Pirates starter Johan Oviedo has been solid in his last five starts (3-2, 4.71 ERA), I really don’t think he will dominate the Brewers the way he did more than two years ago, when he blanked Milwaukee through seven innings on August 6, 2023.
Our betting prediction for the Pittsburgh Pirates vs. the Milwaukee Brewers: the Brewers -1.5 Runs
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.