New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Prediction & Picks - MLB

USA - MLB

New York Mets
8/28/25 19:10
Miami Marlins

Prediction:

 

Mets -2.5 (alt run line)

+117
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 by Travis Pulver | in MLB Picks

The Miami Marlins and New York Mets will face off in Game One of a four-game series today at 7:10 p.m. EST at Citi Field in Queens, NY. Technically, the Marlins are not out of the playoff chase. But they are ten games back with 29 left, making it possible, but unlikely. They’ll enter this series fresh off a disaster of a homestand that saw them lose six of their last nine games. New York, on the other hand, swept the NL East-leading Phillies to move within four games of the division lead. 

Miami appears to be calling up Adam Mazur from the minors to start today. Mazur has one other start under his belt this season, a 4-2 loss to the Phillies at home on June 18. He pitched 5 2/3 innings, giving up five hits, four earned runs, and striking out five while walking four. Mazur will have his hands full against a Mets lineup hitting .342 over the last week with ten home runs and 49 runs scored across six games. As for the Mets, Clay Holmes will get the start. He is 11-6 in 26 starts with a 3.60 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a .245 OBA. He has gone 5-2 at home in 13 starts with a 3.84 ERA and .217 OBA.

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New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Form

Table

Teams Pts P W L
14 New York Mets
0.512 162 83 79
19 Miami Marlins
0.488 162 79 83

New York Mets and Miami Marlins Latest Matches

New York Mets
New York Mets Latest matches
W W L W W W
Victories

5/6 (83%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Aug 27, 2025 - MLB

New York Mets
6 :  0
Philadelphia Phillies

Aug 26, 2025 - MLB

New York Mets
6 :  5
Philadelphia Phillies

Aug 25, 2025 - MLB

New York Mets
13 :  3
Philadelphia Phillies

Aug 24, 2025 - MLB

Atlanta Braves
4 :  3
New York Mets

Aug 23, 2025 - MLB

Atlanta Braves
2 :  9
New York Mets

Aug 22, 2025 - MLB

Atlanta Braves
7 :  12
New York Mets
L W W W W W
Victories

5/6 (83%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Aug 27, 2025 - MLB

New York Mets
6 :  0
Philadelphia Phillies

Aug 26, 2025 - MLB

New York Mets
6 :  5
Philadelphia Phillies

Aug 25, 2025 - MLB

New York Mets
13 :  3
Philadelphia Phillies

Aug 17, 2025 - MLB

New York Mets
7 :  3
Seattle Mariners

Aug 16, 2025 - MLB

New York Mets
3 :  1
Seattle Mariners

Aug 15, 2025 - MLB

New York Mets
9 :  11
Seattle Mariners
W L L W W L
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Defeats

3/6 (50%)

Aug 24, 2025 - MLB

Atlanta Braves
4 :  3
New York Mets

Aug 23, 2025 - MLB

Atlanta Braves
2 :  9
New York Mets

Aug 22, 2025 - MLB

Atlanta Braves
7 :  12
New York Mets

Aug 21, 2025 - MLB

Washington Nationals
9 :  3
New York Mets

Aug 20, 2025 - MLB

Washington Nationals
5 :  4
New York Mets

Aug 19, 2025 - MLB

Washington Nationals
1 :  8
New York Mets
Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins Latest matches
L L W W L L
Victories

2/6 (33%)

Defeats

4/6 (67%)

Aug 27, 2025 - MLB

Miami Marlins
1 :  12
Atlanta Braves

Aug 26, 2025 - MLB

Miami Marlins
2 :  11
Atlanta Braves

Aug 25, 2025 - MLB

Miami Marlins
2 :  1
Atlanta Braves

Aug 24, 2025 - MLB

Miami Marlins
5 :  3
Toronto Blue Jays

Aug 23, 2025 - MLB

Miami Marlins
6 :  7
Toronto Blue Jays

Aug 22, 2025 - MLB

Miami Marlins
2 :  5
Toronto Blue Jays
L L W W L L
Victories

2/6 (33%)

Defeats

4/6 (67%)

Aug 27, 2025 - MLB

Miami Marlins
1 :  12
Atlanta Braves

Aug 26, 2025 - MLB

Miami Marlins
2 :  11
Atlanta Braves

Aug 25, 2025 - MLB

Miami Marlins
2 :  1
Atlanta Braves

Aug 24, 2025 - MLB

Miami Marlins
5 :  3
Toronto Blue Jays

Aug 23, 2025 - MLB

Miami Marlins
6 :  7
Toronto Blue Jays

Aug 22, 2025 - MLB

Miami Marlins
2 :  5
Toronto Blue Jays
L W L L L W
Victories

2/6 (33%)

Defeats

4/6 (67%)

Aug 17, 2025 - MLB

Boston Red Sox
3 :  5
Miami Marlins

Aug 16, 2025 - MLB

Boston Red Sox
7 :  5
Miami Marlins

Aug 15, 2025 - MLB

Boston Red Sox
2 :  1
Miami Marlins

Aug 14, 2025 - MLB

Cleveland Guardians
9 :  4
Miami Marlins

Aug 13, 2025 - MLB

Cleveland Guardians
4 :  13
Miami Marlins

Aug 12, 2025 - MLB

Cleveland Guardians
4 :  3
Miami Marlins

New York Mets against Miami Marlins : Head to Head (H2H)

New York Mets

67 %

Miami Marlins

33 %

Apr 9, 2025 - MLB

New York Mets
0 :  5
Miami Marlins

Apr 8, 2025 - MLB

New York Mets
10 :  5
Miami Marlins

Apr 7, 2025 - MLB

New York Mets
2 :  0
Miami Marlins

Apr 2, 2025 - MLB

Miami Marlins
5 :  6
New York Mets

Apr 1, 2025 - MLB

Miami Marlins
4 :  2
New York Mets

Mar 31, 2025 - MLB

Miami Marlins
4 :  10
New York Mets

New York Mets - Miami Marlins Key Points

  1. The Mets lead the all-time series vs. the Marlins 289-243.
  2. Holmes faced the Marlins twice in April; he pitched 4 2/3 innings in the first, giving up six hits and two runs in a no-decision, and 5 1/3 innings six days later, giving up five hits and four runs but getting the win.
  3. The Mets are 23-33 against the run line when favored at home.
  4. Betting Public: 90% of runline tickets and 89% of the handle are on the Mets.
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Our New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Prediction

If you’re looking for a competitive game to bet on, don’t bother with this game. The Marlins gave up double-digit runs in their last two games and will be calling up someone to start today who gave up four runs in his only other MLB start against the hottest-hitting team in baseball. Holmes should have no problem controlling a Marlins lineup hitting .222 over the last week and averaging three runs a game.

Our Miami vs. New York Pick: Mets -2.5 (alt run line)

Prediction:

 

Mets -2.5 (alt run line)

+117
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New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Picks