Minnesota Twins vs Miami Marlins Prediction & Picks - MLB

USA - MLB

Minnesota Twins
5/14/26 13:40
Miami Marlins

Prediction:

 

Total runs to stay under 9.5.

-166
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 by Stephen Abiola | in MLB Picks

Minnesota Twins (19-24) and Miami Marlins (20-23) will play a high-stakes matchup on Thursday evening at Target Field. The Twins will be shooting to clinch this tiebreaker after suffering a disappointing 5-9 defeat on Wednesday night. Despite the defeat, their offense remained lively in this series, having defeated the Marlins 3-0 in Game 1. The Twins will know that early pressure will be key in dictating the tempo today.

Miami Marlins, meanwhile, went on the offensive early on Wednesday to put away the hosts. Owen Cassie hit a two-run homer, whereas Liam Hicks got three RBIs to help the Marlins pull away for a 9-5 win. The Marlins played aggressively, especially in the second when they took a 4-1 lead and never looked back. We expect them to employ the same strategy today as they seek to get an early lead.

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Minnesota Twins vs Miami Marlins Form

Table

Teams Pts P W L
12 Miami Marlins
0.504 119 60 59
16 Minnesota Twins
0.492 120 59 61

Minnesota Twins and Miami Marlins Latest Matches

Minnesota Twins
Minnesota Twins Latest matches
L L W W W L
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Defeats

3/6 (50%)

May 13, 2026 - MLB

Minnesota Twins
5 :  9
Miami Marlins

May 12, 2026 - MLB

Minnesota Twins
3 :  0
Miami Marlins

May 10, 2026 - MLB

Cleveland Guardians
4 :  5
Minnesota Twins

May 9, 2026 - MLB

Cleveland Guardians
1 :  2
Minnesota Twins

May 8, 2026 - MLB

Cleveland Guardians
6 :  4
Minnesota Twins

May 7, 2026 - MLB

Washington Nationals
7 :  5
Minnesota Twins
W L L W W L
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Defeats

3/6 (50%)

May 13, 2026 - MLB

Minnesota Twins
5 :  9
Miami Marlins

May 12, 2026 - MLB

Minnesota Twins
3 :  0
Miami Marlins

May 3, 2026 - MLB

Minnesota Twins
4 :  3
Toronto Blue Jays

May 2, 2026 - MLB

Minnesota Twins
4 :  11
Toronto Blue Jays

May 1, 2026 - MLB

Minnesota Twins
3 :  7
Toronto Blue Jays

Apr 30, 2026 - MLB

Minnesota Twins
7 :  1
Toronto Blue Jays
W L L L W W
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Defeats

3/6 (50%)

May 10, 2026 - MLB

Cleveland Guardians
4 :  5
Minnesota Twins

May 9, 2026 - MLB

Cleveland Guardians
1 :  2
Minnesota Twins

May 8, 2026 - MLB

Cleveland Guardians
6 :  4
Minnesota Twins

May 7, 2026 - MLB

Washington Nationals
7 :  5
Minnesota Twins

May 6, 2026 - MLB

Washington Nationals
15 :  2
Minnesota Twins

May 5, 2026 - MLB

Washington Nationals
3 :  11
Minnesota Twins
Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins Latest matches
W L W W L W
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

May 13, 2026 - MLB

Minnesota Twins
5 :  9
Miami Marlins

May 12, 2026 - MLB

Minnesota Twins
3 :  0
Miami Marlins

May 10, 2026 - MLB

Miami Marlins
5 :  2
Washington Nationals

May 9, 2026 - MLB

Miami Marlins
8 :  7
Washington Nationals

May 8, 2026 - MLB

Miami Marlins
2 :  3
Washington Nationals

May 7, 2026 - MLB

Miami Marlins
4 :  3
Baltimore Orioles
L L W L W W
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Defeats

3/6 (50%)

May 10, 2026 - MLB

Miami Marlins
5 :  2
Washington Nationals

May 9, 2026 - MLB

Miami Marlins
8 :  7
Washington Nationals

May 8, 2026 - MLB

Miami Marlins
2 :  3
Washington Nationals

May 7, 2026 - MLB

Miami Marlins
4 :  3
Baltimore Orioles

May 6, 2026 - MLB

Miami Marlins
4 :  7
Baltimore Orioles

May 5, 2026 - MLB

Miami Marlins
7 :  9
Baltimore Orioles
L L W W L W
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Defeats

3/6 (50%)

May 13, 2026 - MLB

Minnesota Twins
5 :  9
Miami Marlins

May 12, 2026 - MLB

Minnesota Twins
3 :  0
Miami Marlins

Apr 29, 2026 - MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers
2 :  3
Miami Marlins

Apr 28, 2026 - MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers
1 :  2
Miami Marlins

Apr 27, 2026 - MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers
5 :  4
Miami Marlins

Apr 26, 2026 - MLB

San Francisco Giants
6 :  3
Miami Marlins

Minnesota Twins against Miami Marlins : Head to Head (H2H)

Minnesota Twins

33 %

Miami Marlins

67 %

May 13, 2026 - MLB

Minnesota Twins
5 :  9
Miami Marlins

May 12, 2026 - MLB

Minnesota Twins
3 :  0
Miami Marlins

Jul 3, 2025 - MLB

Miami Marlins
4 :  1
Minnesota Twins
Minnesota Twins vs Miami Marlins Picks

Minnesota Twins - Miami Marlins Key Points

  1. The total runs went under 9.5 in six of the last seven Miami Marlins away games.
  2. The total runs went under in four of the last five Minnesota Twins vs Miami Marlins games.
  3. The total runs went under 9.5 in four of the last five Minnesota Twins vs Miami Marlins clashes.
  4. The total runs went under 9.5 in four of the last six Miami Marlins matches.
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Our Minnesota Twins vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Minnesota Twins are the -125 favorites in this tight contest. They’re in great form currently, going 3-1 in their last four games with a similar record against the spread. However, the Marlins are also excelling lately, winning three of their last four games. They also have a similar record on the road. Based on these statistics, we’ll skip the tricky moneyline odds and instead back the total runs to stay under 9.5. The Marlins’ offense isn’t exactly blowing away opponents on the road, scoring under 4.5 runs in six of their last seven assignments. Also, Zebby Matthews of Minnesota and Braxton Garret of Miami have 0.00 ERA records this season. We, therefore, expect both sides to take a cautious approach to avoid dropping this series.

Our prediction for Minnesota Twins vs Miami Marlins: Total runs to stay under 9.5.

Prediction:

 

Total runs to stay under 9.5.

-166
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