Mexico vs Dominican Republic Prediction & Picks - CONCACAF Gold Cup

International - CONCACAF Gold Cup

Mexico
6/14/25 22:15
Dominican Republic

Prediction:

 

Mexico to score over 3.5 goals

+190
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 by Simon Day in CONCACAF Gold Cup Picks

The opening game of the 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup sees holders Mexico take on tournament debutants Dominican Republic in Inglewood. The game is in Group A of the tournament, a section of the draw that also features Costa Rica and Suriname. Mexico and Costa Rica are huge favorites to claim the two qualification spots, but both Suriname and the Dominican Republic will fancy their chances of springing a few surprises. 

As you would expect, Mexico are among the leading contenders for the title and will come into the tournament in a confident mood after an impressive 1-0 victory over Turkey in their final warm up game. The Dominican Republic will also be in high spirits after a comprehensive 5-0 thrashing of Dominica on Wednesday evening. However, Saturday night's meeting with Mexico represents a huge step up in class for the Dominicans, and they will need to produce the performance of a lifetime to get anything from the game. 

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Mexico vs Dominican Republic Form

Mexico and Dominican Republic Latest Matches

Mexico
Mexico Latest matches
W L W W L W
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3 Total goals
33% BTTS
1.83 Goals scored
1.17 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

Jun 10, 2025 - International Friendlies

Mexico
1 :  0
Turkey

Jun 7, 2025 - International Friendlies

Mexico
2 :  4
Switzerland

Mar 23, 2025 - CONCACAF Nations League

Mexico
2 :  1
Panama

Mar 20, 2025 - CONCACAF Nations League

Canada
0 :  2
Mexico

Jan 21, 2025 - International Friendlies

CA River Plate
2 :  0
Mexico

Nov 19, 2024 - CONCACAF Nations League

Mexico
4 :  0
Honduras
D W W W L W
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.33 Total goals
50% BTTS
2.17 Goals scored
1.17 Goals conceded
67% Over 2.5
33% Under 2.5

Jun 10, 2025 - International Friendlies

Mexico
1 :  0
Turkey

Jun 7, 2025 - International Friendlies

Mexico
2 :  4
Switzerland

Mar 23, 2025 - CONCACAF Nations League

Mexico
2 :  1
Panama

Nov 19, 2024 - CONCACAF Nations League

Mexico
4 :  0
Honduras

Oct 15, 2024 - International Friendlies

Mexico
2 :  0
USA

Oct 12, 2024 - International Friendlies

Mexico
2 :  2
Valencia
L L D L L W
Victories

1/6 (17%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Defeats

4/6 (67%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

1.5 Total goals
0% BTTS
0.33 Goals scored
1.17 Goals conceded
0% Over 2.5
100% Under 2.5

Mar 20, 2025 - CONCACAF Nations League

Canada
0 :  2
Mexico

Jan 21, 2025 - International Friendlies

CA River Plate
2 :  0
Mexico

Nov 15, 2024 - CONCACAF Nations League

Honduras
2 :  0
Mexico

Sep 10, 2024 - International Friendlies

Canada
0 :  0
Mexico

Jun 26, 2024 - Copa America

Venezuela
1 :  0
Mexico

Mar 24, 2024 - CONCACAF Nations League

USA
2 :  0
Mexico
Dominican Republic
Dominican Republic Latest matches
W W D W L W
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

5.17 Total goals
67% BTTS
3.83 Goals scored
1.33 Goals conceded
83% Over 2.5
17% Under 2.5

Jun 10, 2025 - World Cup

Dominican Republic
5 :  0
Dominica

Jun 6, 2025 - World Cup

Guatemala
4 :  2
Dominican Republic

Mar 25, 2025 - International Friendlies

Dominican Republic
2 :  0
Puerto Rico

Mar 21, 2025 - International Friendlies

Puerto Rico
2 :  2
Dominican Republic

Nov 19, 2024 - CONCACAF Nations League

Dominican Republic
6 :  1
Bermuda

Nov 16, 2024 - CONCACAF Nations League

Dominica
1 :  6
Dominican Republic
W W W W W W
Victories

6/6 (100%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

0/6 (0%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

4.17 Total goals
17% BTTS
4 Goals scored
0.17 Goals conceded
67% Over 2.5
33% Under 2.5

Jun 10, 2025 - World Cup

Dominican Republic
5 :  0
Dominica

Mar 25, 2025 - International Friendlies

Dominican Republic
2 :  0
Puerto Rico

Nov 19, 2024 - CONCACAF Nations League

Dominican Republic
6 :  1
Bermuda

Oct 15, 2024 - CONCACAF Nations League

Dominican Republic
5 :  0
Antigua and Barbuda

Sep 10, 2024 - CONCACAF Nations League

Dominican Republic
2 :  0
Dominica

Jun 11, 2024 - World Cup

Dominican Republic
4 :  0
Virgin Islands, British
L W W W D L
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

4.67 Total goals
67% BTTS
3 Goals scored
1.67 Goals conceded
83% Over 2.5
17% Under 2.5

Jun 6, 2025 - World Cup

Guatemala
4 :  2
Dominican Republic

Mar 21, 2025 - International Friendlies

Puerto Rico
2 :  2
Dominican Republic

Nov 16, 2024 - CONCACAF Nations League

Dominica
1 :  6
Dominican Republic

Oct 12, 2024 - CONCACAF Nations League

Antigua and Barbuda
0 :  5
Dominican Republic

Sep 7, 2024 - CONCACAF Nations League

Bermuda
2 :  3
Dominican Republic

Jun 6, 2024 - World Cup

Jamaica
1 :  0
Dominican Republic

Mexico - Dominican Republic: Form Analysis

Mexico has already picked up some silverware this year, thanks to a last gasp 2-1 victory over Panama in the final of the CONCACAF Nations League. Raul Jimenez was the Mexican hero in that game, scoring two goals, including a dramatic winning penalty deep into injury time. Since that victory, Mexico have played two friendly warm up matches. After producing a mistake-ridden display in losing 2-4 to Switzerland, they bounced back to edge out Turkey 1-0 thanks to a first half goal from Oscar Pineda.

Nations League success for the Dominican Republic 

The Dominican Republic have also had a successful 2025 so far. They won all six of their Nations League B group matches to comfortably secure promotion into the top tier of the competition. Since then, they have beaten Dominica and Puerto Rico, but also lost to Guatemala. 

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Missing players

Mexico
Mexico
Defender

J. Vasquez

Dominican Republic
Dominican Republic

Mexico & Dominican Republic Squad Analysis

Mexico's squad is arguably the most experienced in the competition. Names such as Raul Jimenez, Edson Álvarez, Orbelín Pineda and Santiago Gimenez will be familiar to soccer fans around the world and bring a huge amount of quality to the Mexican team. One of the less familiar names in the Mexico squad is 16 year old Gilberto Mora. The Tijuana midfielder is enjoying a fine debut season and could be a name to watch during the tournament. 

Dominican Republic lacking in top level experience

Whilst Mexico are blessed with a host of world class players, the same cannot be said for the Dominican Republic. Very few members of their squad have played in any of the world's top domestic leagues, and Saturday's game will be their first time playing in a major international tournament. Their most famous player is probably Leeds United defender Junior Firpo. The left back started his career in Spain, and has made over 100 appearances for Leeds since joining them in 2021.  

Mexico - Dominican Republic Key Points

  1. This will be the Dominican Republic's first ever game in the CONCACAF Gold Cup
  2. Mexico have lost just 2 of their last 11 games
  3. The two teams have not met since 1990
  4. Mexico have won their last 3 Gold Cup games without conceding a goal
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Our Mexico vs Dominican Republic Prediction

This looks like a complete mismatch. Mexico are our favorites to win the tournament, whilst the Dominican Republic appear to just be making up the numbers. As you would expect, the Mexicans are an extremely short price to win on Saturday night, so there is very little value in backing them. Instead, it is worth looking at the goal markets. In particular, we think there is some value in backing Mexico to score plenty. The 5.40 on them scoring over 4.5 goals holds some appeal, but we are taking the shorter odds on them scoring at least four times. 

Our prediction for Mexico vs Dominican Republic is: Mexico to score over 3.5 goals.

Prediction:

 

Mexico to score over 3.5 goals

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Mexico vs Dominican Republic - Other Interesting Picks

Raul Jimenez to score 2+ goals

Odds +340
Rail Jimenez has been a prolific scorer for Mexico for over a decade, and he is showing no signs of slowing down. The Fulham striker scored twice in Mexico's Nations League final victory over Panama and now has 39 goals for the national team. Given the gulf in quality between Mexico and the Dominican REpub;lic, we think there is an excellent chance that Jimenez grabs at least a brace on Saturday.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.

Mexico vs Dominican Republic Picks
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