Matteo Berrettini vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction & Picks - Rolex Paris Masters
ATP - Rolex Paris Masters
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by Lou Aguila in Rolex Paris Masters Picks
Winning 80 percent of first-serve points in indoor matches this year, Matteo Berrettini has a clear path to covering +4.5 games against Carlos Alcaraz in the third round of the 2026 Paris Masters.
Current Form:
Carlos Alcaraz has won his last 6 indoor matches. The former world No.1 outplayed Alex Michelsen 7-6, 6-3 in the second round. Alcaraz, who captured the Vienna Open indoor title without dropping a set, carries a 72 percent win rate in indoor matches.
Matteo Berrettini outslugged Ugo Humbert 7-6, 7-5 to reach the round of 16 in Paris. The Italian fired 13 aces and won 77 percent of first-serve points, conceding only one service break in the match. Berrettini is 4-2 in indoor matches in 2026.
The Matchup: Alcaraz is 3-1 vs. Berrettini in their head-to-head series. He also defeated the Italian 7-5, 6-4 in their lone indoor meeting at the 2021 Vienna Open.
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Matteo Berrettini vs Carlos Alcaraz Form
Matteo Berrettini and Carlos Alcaraz Latest Matches
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
Nov 4, 2026 - Rolex Paris Masters
Nov 3, 2026 - Rolex Paris Masters
Oct 30, 2026 - ATP Vienna
Oct 26, 2026 - ATP Vienna
Oct 20, 2026 - ATP Lyon Open
Oct 9, 2026 - ATP Shanghai Masters
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
Nov 4, 2026 - Rolex Paris Masters
Nov 1, 2026 - ATP Vienna
Oct 31, 2026 - ATP Vienna
Oct 30, 2026 - ATP Vienna
Oct 29, 2026 - ATP Vienna
Oct 27, 2026 - ATP Vienna
Matteo Berrettini against Carlos Alcaraz : Head to Head (H2H)
25 %
75 %
Jul 10, 2023 - ATP Wimbledon Championships
Feb 19, 2022 - ATP Rio Open
Jan 20, 2022 - ATP Australian Open
Oct 29, 2021 - ATP Vienna
Matteo Berrettini - Carlos Alcaraz Key Points
- Matteo Berrettini is 4-2 in indoor matches in 2026.
- Matteo Berrettini is 1-3 in third-round matches in 2026.
- Carlos Alcaraz is 6-0 in indoor matches in 2026.
- Carlos Alcaraz is 4-2 in third-round matches.
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Our Matteo Berrettini vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction
Key Stats: Carlos Alcaraz has not conceded a set in his last 6 indoor matches. Moreover, Alcaraz is 5-0 in tiebreaks in indoor matches.
On the other hand, Berrettini is winning 80 percent of first-serve points and averaging 10.3 aces in indoor matches in 2026. He has also dropped only 5 service breaks in 5 indoor matches this year.
Betting Analysis: Alcaraz gets the win, but Berrettini covers +4.5 games in this matchup. It’s highly likely that Alcaraz will never drop a set again this year because of how good he is in tiebreaks. However, Berrettini’s service game should keep him in the match and the final score close in the face of Alcaraz’s brilliance.
Fearless Forecast: Carlos Alcaraz wins 6-4, 7-6
Our betting prediction for Carlos Alcaraz vs. Matteo Berrettini: Matteo Berrettini +4.5 games
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
