Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Prediction & Picks - ATP French Open

Prediction published on 6/4/26, 5:31 AM  by Bradley Gibbs | Modified on 6/4/26 at 5:54 AM in ATP French Open Picks

On Friday, it's time for the men's semi-finals at the 2026 French Open. No matter what happens, we will have a first-time Roland Garros winner, which is incredibly exciting. Given that neither Jannik Sinner nor Carlos Alcaraz have reached the semis, this really is a huge opportunity for someone like Flavio Cobolli, who now has a serious chance of claiming Grand Slam glory for the first time in his career. The Italian has been in superb form over the last few months, and he's arguably played his best tennis ever over the last week or so. 

Facing Cobolli will be fellow Italian Matteo Arnaldi, who as the world number 104 was not expected to reach the last four, but here he is. Arnaldi booked his placed in this semi thanks to Matteo Berrettini retiring last time out, so he should be nice and fresh, while he showed bundles of fighting spirit to defeat Frances Tiafoe in five sets prior to that. We've seen that the lower-ranked player can fight, but is that going to be enough? Likely not. If both players reach somewhere near their best, based on what we've seen from both in 2026, it will be a huge surprise if Arnaldi gets anywhere near to beating Cobolli, who should have more than enough quality to pull clear of his countryman.