ATP - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
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by Bradley Gibbs in ATP Mutua Madrid Open Picks
On Thursday, in the Spanish capital of Madrid, there's an interesting match between Matteo Arnaldi and Borna Coric. Of course, Arnaldi is the higher-ranked player here, and he's ranked above Coric by quite a bit, with the Italian currently holding an ATP rank of 44. The Croatian is ranked at 104. However, the conditions in Madrid take a bit of getting used to, so it's probably fair to say that Coric has an egde there having played a couple of qualifying matches.
Moreover, Arnaldi comes into this tournament having played very little clay-court tennis this season. In fact, he's had just two clay-court matches, both of which he's lost, one of which he lost to a much lower-ranked player. Coric on the other hand is very nicely warmed up on clay, while he's taken well to the conditions too. Don't be too surprised if he upsets his higher-ranked opponent. I certainly won't be.
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Matteo Arnaldi vs Borna Ćorić Form
Matteo Arnaldi and Borna Ćorić Latest Matches
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
Apr 14, 2025 - ATP Barcelona
Apr 6, 2025 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Mar 22, 2025 - ATP Miami
Mar 20, 2025 - ATP Miami
Mar 10, 2025 - ATP Indian Wells
Mar 8, 2025 - ATP Indian Wells
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
Apr 22, 2025 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
Apr 21, 2025 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
Apr 13, 2025 - ATP Barcelona
Apr 12, 2025 - ATP Barcelona
Apr 9, 2025 - Madrid, Spain
Apr 7, 2025 - Madrid, Spain
Matteo Arnaldi - Borna Ćorić Key Points
- This will be the first competitive meeting between the pair.
- Borna Coric has already played two matches in Madrid and thus should be more up to speed with the courts.
- Matteo Arnaldi has lost each of his two recent clay-court matches.
- Matteo Arnaldi has won only one of his last five matches and hasn't won on clay since July 2024.
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Our Matteo Arnaldi vs Borna Ćorić Prediction
The courts in Madrid are quick for clay courts, so those who've done well on hard surfaces in recent times can perform well, though we're also talking about courts that take a bit of getting used to, while the conditions in Madrid are quite energy sapping, so those who've had longer to adjust and condition themselves should thrive. In this case, that's Borna Coric, who has already won two matches in Madrid. If we combine this with the fact that Arnaldi has played none, coupled with the fact that he's not played much on clay at all this season, losing his last two, then odds of +120 on the Croat to win are well worth taking. Our Matteo Arnaldi vs Borna Coric Pick: Borna Coric to Win.
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