Manchester United vs Arsenal Prediction & Picks - Premier League

England - Premier League

Manchester United
8/17/25 11:30
Arsenal

Prediction:

 

Over 3.5

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 by Erik Gibbs in Premier League Picks

Old Trafford opens the new campaign with a heavyweight clash as Manchester United host Arsenal on Sunday. United begin their first full season under Rúben Amorim determined to bounce back into the top four after a disappointing finish last year. Preseason was encouraging and unbeaten, with sharper pressing and cleaner build-up patterns. Summer additions were targeted: striker Benjamin Šeško offers vertical threat, Bryan Mbeumo adds direct wing running and crossing, and Matheus Cunha increases depth and versatility across the front line.

Fitness is a subplot. Lisandro Martínez could be short of full sharpness, and goalkeeper André Onana is working toward readiness. Even so, United's spine—Onana, Casemiro, and Bruno Fernandes—should provide structure.

The tactical chess match should hinge on midfield tempo. If Arsenal could rapidly transition via Zubimendi and swap a full-back to get into overload positions, they could pull United's configuration and get to Gyökeres in a flash.

Fernandes continues to be the creative linchpin, floating across lines, controlling set pieces, and overlapping with full-backs. Amorim's template features rapid transition, early diagonals, and vehement counter-pressing after giveaways to jam opponents in and generate short-field opportunities.

If United's counter-press bites and Fernandes springs runners like Mbeumo and Šeško into space, Arsenal's high line can be tested. Wide duels feel decisive: Saka versus United's left-back, and Rashford or Garnacho attacking gaps behind Arsenal's own full-backs. Set pieces are another lever—both sides possess aerial threats and rehearsed routines capable of tipping tight openers.

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Manchester United vs Arsenal Form

Manchester United and Arsenal Latest Matches

Manchester United
Manchester United Latest matches
W D W W D D
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Draw

3/6 (50%)

Defeats

0/6 (0%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3 Total goals
83% BTTS
2 Goals scored
1 Goals conceded
67% Over 2.5
33% Under 2.5

Aug 9, 2025 - Clubs Friendlies

Manchester United
1 :  1
Fiorentina

Aug 3, 2025 - Clubs Friendlies

Manchester United
2 :  2
Everton

Jul 30, 2025 - Clubs Friendlies

Manchester United
4 :  1
Bournemouth

Jul 26, 2025 - Clubs Friendlies

Manchester United
2 :  1
West Ham

Jul 19, 2025 - Clubs Friendlies

Manchester United
0 :  0
Leeds

May 30, 2025 - Clubs Friendlies

Hong Kong
1 :  3
Manchester United
W D W W D D
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Draw

3/6 (50%)

Defeats

0/6 (0%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.67 Total goals
67% BTTS
1.83 Goals scored
0.83 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

Aug 9, 2025 - Clubs Friendlies

Manchester United
1 :  1
Fiorentina

Aug 3, 2025 - Clubs Friendlies

Manchester United
2 :  2
Everton

Jul 30, 2025 - Clubs Friendlies

Manchester United
4 :  1
Bournemouth

Jul 26, 2025 - Clubs Friendlies

Manchester United
2 :  1
West Ham

Jul 19, 2025 - Clubs Friendlies

Manchester United
0 :  0
Leeds

May 25, 2025 - Premier League

Manchester United
2 :  0
Aston Villa
W L L L L W
Victories

2/6 (33%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

4/6 (67%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.83 Total goals
33% BTTS
1.5 Goals scored
1.33 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

May 30, 2025 - Clubs Friendlies

Hong Kong
1 :  3
Manchester United

May 28, 2025 - Clubs Friendlies

Asean All-Stars
1 :  0
Manchester United

May 21, 2025 - Europa League

Tottenham
1 :  0
Manchester United

May 16, 2025 - Premier League

Chelsea
1 :  0
Manchester United

May 4, 2025 - Premier League

Brentford
4 :  3
Manchester United

May 1, 2025 - Europa League

Athletic Bilbao
0 :  3
Manchester United
Arsenal
Arsenal Latest matches
W W W L L W
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3 Total goals
50% BTTS
1.83 Goals scored
1.17 Goals conceded
67% Over 2.5
33% Under 2.5

Aug 9, 2025 - Emirates Cup

Arsenal
3 :  0
Athletic Bilbao

Aug 6, 2025 - Clubs Friendlies

Arsenal
2 :  3
Villarreal

Jul 31, 2025 - Clubs Friendlies

Arsenal
0 :  1
Tottenham

Jul 27, 2025 - Clubs Friendlies

Arsenal
3 :  2
Newcastle

Jul 23, 2025 - Clubs Friendlies

Arsenal
1 :  0
AC Milan

May 25, 2025 - Premier League

Southampton
1 :  2
Arsenal
W W W L L W
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.67 Total goals
33% BTTS
1.67 Goals scored
1 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

Aug 9, 2025 - Emirates Cup

Arsenal
3 :  0
Athletic Bilbao

Aug 6, 2025 - Clubs Friendlies

Arsenal
2 :  3
Villarreal

Jul 31, 2025 - Clubs Friendlies

Arsenal
0 :  1
Tottenham

Jul 27, 2025 - Clubs Friendlies

Arsenal
3 :  2
Newcastle

Jul 23, 2025 - Clubs Friendlies

Arsenal
1 :  0
AC Milan

May 18, 2025 - Premier League

Arsenal
1 :  0
Newcastle
D W W L D W
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.17 Total goals
83% BTTS
2 Goals scored
1.17 Goals conceded
83% Over 2.5
17% Under 2.5

May 25, 2025 - Premier League

Southampton
1 :  2
Arsenal

May 11, 2025 - Premier League

Liverpool
2 :  2
Arsenal

May 7, 2025 - Champions League

PSG
2 :  1
Arsenal

Apr 20, 2025 - Premier League

Ipswich Town
0 :  4
Arsenal

Apr 16, 2025 - Champions League

Real Madrid
1 :  2
Arsenal

Apr 5, 2025 - Premier League

Everton
1 :  1
Arsenal

Manchester United against Arsenal : Head to Head (H2H)

Manchester United

0 %

Draw

33 %

Arsenal

67 %

Average stats (last H2H results)

2.33
Total goals
67%
BTTS
0.67
Goals scored (Team 1)
1.67
Goals scored (Team 2)
33%
Over 2.5
67%
Under 2.5

Mar 9, 2025 - Premier League

Manchester United
1 :  1
Arsenal

Jan 12, 2025 - FA Cup

Arsenal
1 :  1
Manchester United

Dec 4, 2024 - Premier League

Arsenal
2 :  0
Manchester United

Jul 27, 2024 - Clubs Friendlies

Arsenal
2 :  1
Manchester United

May 12, 2024 - Premier League

Manchester United
0 :  1
Arsenal

Sep 3, 2023 - Premier League

Arsenal
3 :  1
Manchester United

Missing players

Manchester United
Manchester United
Goalkeeper

A. Onana

Defender

L. Martinez

Arsenal
Arsenal
Forward

G. Jesus

Manchester United - Arsenal Key Points

  1. Man U is 3-2 ATS in their last 5 games
  2. Arsenal is 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games
  3. The Over is 1-4 in Man U's last 5 games
  4. The Over is 3-2 in Arsenal's last 5 games
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Our Manchester United vs Arsenal Prediction

Arsenal come in with consistency and drive after three consecutive second-placed finishes. Arteta's team has filled essential jobs: Viktor Gyökeres provides a fulcrum that can play width and hold up center-backs; Martín Zubimendi provides penetration in the six, shutting off counter-press and driving play upfield, and Kepa Arrizabalaga provides experienced depth at goal.

Without Gabriel Jesus, there are still elite options in Bukayo Saka and Martin Ødegaard—Saka alone on the right wide, Ødegaard making combinations of midfield runners and full-back overlaps.

Intangibles count on day one; rhythm has not quite developed, defensive timings are late, and personal brilliance tends to shatter balance. Expect phases of Arsenal control punctuated by United surges, especially in transition after turnovers. The home crowd should amplify those waves, and the first goal will carry huge psychological weight for either project. Managing game states—slowing tempo after scoring, or maintaining composure if conceding—will reveal how far each side has matured.

A measured, intense opener with limited clear chances. A draw feels likeliest given Arsenal's cohesion and United's evolving system, but a single sequence—a turnover in midfield, a rehearsed corner, or a spark from Saka or Fernandes—could swing a narrow 1–0 either way. Our prediction for Manchester United vs. Arsenal: Over 3.5 goals.

Prediction:

 

Over 3.5

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Manchester United vs Arsenal Picks
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