Manchester City vs Real Madrid Picks & Prediction

Europe - Champions League

Manchester City

3/17/26 16:00

Real Madrid

Prediction:

Brahim Diaz 1+ Shots on Target

+110

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Prediction published on 3/17/26, 12:27 PM by Bradley Gibbs | Modified on 3/24/26 at 6:17 AM in Champions League Picks

On Tuesday night, the UEFA Champions League Round-of-16 tie between Real Madrid and Man City will conclude. Having met in the Spanish capital of Madrid a week ago, the pair will now do battle in Manchester, where Los Blancos will arrive with a healthy advantage.

Despite having some seemingly serious injury concerns ahead of the first leg, Alvaro Arbeloa’s men cruised to victory, once again showing that they’re all about rising to the big continental occasion. With a three-goal lead in the bag, the visitors should be more than capable of wrapping this one up, right?

In front of a home crowd, the Citizens will be hoping to deliver a much more commanding performance, and if they can make a fast start, maybe Pep Guardiola’s men can turn this around, though if they go too gung-ho too soon, they’ll likely pay the price on the break.

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Manchester City vs Real Madrid Form

Manchester City and Real Madrid Latest Matches

Manchester City Latest matches

All Home Away

W W D W L D

Victories

3/6 (50%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.83 Total goals

67% BTTS

1.5 Goals scored

1.33 Goals conceded

67% Over 2.5

33% Under 2.5

Mar 14, 2026 - Premier League

West Ham

1 : 1

Manchester City

Mar 11, 2026 - Champions League

Real Madrid

3 : 0

Manchester City

Mar 7, 2026 - FA Cup

Newcastle

1 : 3

Manchester City

Mar 4, 2026 - Premier League

Manchester City

2 : 2

Nottingham Forest

Feb 28, 2026 - Premier League

Leeds

0 : 1

Manchester City

Feb 21, 2026 - Premier League

Manchester City

2 : 1

Newcastle

W W W W W D

Victories

5/6 (83%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Defeats

0/6 (0%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3 Total goals

50% BTTS

2.33 Goals scored

0.67 Goals conceded

67% Over 2.5

33% Under 2.5

Mar 4, 2026 - Premier League

Manchester City

2 : 2

Nottingham Forest

Feb 21, 2026 - Premier League

Manchester City

2 : 1

Newcastle

Feb 14, 2026 - FA Cup

Manchester City

2 : 0

Salford City

Feb 11, 2026 - Premier League

Manchester City

3 : 0

Fulham

Feb 4, 2026 - Carabao Cup

Manchester City

3 : 1

Newcastle

Jan 28, 2026 - Champions League

Manchester City

2 : 0

Galatasaray

D W W W L D

Victories

3/6 (50%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.83 Total goals

67% BTTS

1.5 Goals scored

1.33 Goals conceded

67% Over 2.5

33% Under 2.5

Mar 14, 2026 - Premier League

West Ham

1 : 1

Manchester City

Mar 11, 2026 - Champions League

Real Madrid

3 : 0

Manchester City

Mar 7, 2026 - FA Cup

Newcastle

1 : 3

Manchester City

Feb 28, 2026 - Premier League

Leeds

0 : 1

Manchester City

Feb 8, 2026 - Premier League

Liverpool

1 : 2

Manchester City

Feb 1, 2026 - Premier League

Tottenham

2 : 2

Manchester City

Real Madrid Latest matches

All Home Away

L W L W W W

Victories

4/6 (67%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3 Total goals

67% BTTS

2 Goals scored

1 Goals conceded

83% Over 2.5

17% Under 2.5

Mar 14, 2026 - LaLiga

Real Madrid

4 : 1

Elche

Mar 11, 2026 - Champions League

Real Madrid

3 : 0

Manchester City

Mar 6, 2026 - LaLiga

Celta Vigo

1 : 2

Real Madrid

Mar 2, 2026 - LaLiga

Real Madrid

0 : 1

Getafe

Feb 25, 2026 - Champions League

Real Madrid

2 : 1

Benfica Lisbon

Feb 21, 2026 - LaLiga

Osasuna

2 : 1

Real Madrid

W W W L W W

Victories

5/6 (83%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.33 Total goals

67% BTTS

2.5 Goals scored

0.83 Goals conceded

83% Over 2.5

17% Under 2.5

Mar 14, 2026 - LaLiga

Real Madrid

4 : 1

Elche

Mar 11, 2026 - Champions League

Real Madrid

3 : 0

Manchester City

Mar 2, 2026 - LaLiga

Real Madrid

0 : 1

Getafe

Feb 25, 2026 - Champions League

Real Madrid

2 : 1

Benfica Lisbon

Feb 14, 2026 - LaLiga

Real Madrid

4 : 1

Real Sociedad

Feb 1, 2026 - LaLiga

Real Madrid

2 : 1

Rayo Vallecano

W L W W L W

Victories

4/6 (67%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.83 Total goals

50% BTTS

1.67 Goals scored

1.17 Goals conceded

50% Over 2.5

50% Under 2.5

Mar 6, 2026 - LaLiga

Celta Vigo

1 : 2

Real Madrid

Feb 21, 2026 - LaLiga

Osasuna

2 : 1

Real Madrid

Feb 17, 2026 - Champions League

Benfica Lisbon

0 : 1

Real Madrid

Feb 8, 2026 - LaLiga

Valencia

0 : 2

Real Madrid

Jan 28, 2026 - Champions League

Benfica Lisbon

4 : 2

Real Madrid

Jan 24, 2026 - LaLiga

Villarreal

0 : 2

Real Madrid

Manchester City against Real Madrid : Head to Head (H2H)

Manchester City

17 %

Draw

33 %

Real Madrid

50 %

Average stats (last H2H results)

3.83

Total goals

83.33%

BTTS

1.5

Goals scored

2.33

Goals conceded

83.33%

Over 2.5

16.67%

Under 2.5

Mar 11, 2026 - Champions League

Real Madrid

3 : 0

Manchester City

Dec 10, 2025 - Champions League

Real Madrid

1 : 2

Manchester City

Feb 19, 2025 - Champions League

Real Madrid

3 : 1

Manchester City

Feb 11, 2025 - Champions League

Manchester City

2 : 3

Real Madrid

Apr 17, 2024 - Champions League

Manchester City

1 : 1

Real Madrid

Apr 9, 2024 - Champions League

Real Madrid

3 : 3

Manchester City

Manchester City - Real Madrid: Form Analysis

Prior to last week’s first leg, it was the Spanish team that was struggling. Los Blancos had lost two out of three before taking on the Citizens, which suggested that they could easily struggle against an in-form opponent. As touched on above, they certainly didn’t struggle, delivering a wonderful counter-offensive display. Since that big win, they’ve boosted their confidence levels by beating Elche by four goals to one. The players operating for the most successful club in UCL history should now arrive in Manchester feeling rather confident.

Such a result does not point towards them turning the tide here.

Confidence may be in short supply in the home locker room, let’s be honest. Despite heading into the first leg in decent form, Guardiola’s men were clearly second best a week ago, and it’s not as if they’ve since shifted through the gears. At the weekend, in the EPL, they struggled against a relegation-threatened West Ham team, slumping to a 1-1 tie. Such a result does not point towards them turning the tide here.

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Manchester City against Real Madrid Lineups: Starting 11

Manchester City

Formation : 4 - 3 - 3

G. Donnarumma

M. Nunes

A. Khusanov

R. Dias

R. Ait-Nouri

B. Silva

Rodri

T. Reijnders

R. Cherki

E. Haaland

J. Doku

Vinicius Junior

B. Diaz

A. Guler

T. Pitarch Pinar

A. Tchouameni

F. Valverde

F. Garcia

D. Huijsen

A. Rudiger

T. Alexander-Arnold

T. Courtois

Formation : 4 - 3 - 3

Real Madrid

Substitutes

Manchester City

Goalkeeper

J. Trafford

Defender

R. Lewis

N. OReilly

N. Ake

T. Reijnders 46'

J. Stones

M. Guehi

R. Dias 46'

Midfielder

N. Gonzalez

Rodri 74'

A. Semenyo

M. Nunes 57'

Savinho

P. Foden

M. Kovacic

Forward

O. Marmoush

E. Haaland 56'

Real Madrid

Goalkeeper

A. Lunin

T. Courtois 46'

Defender

D. Aguado

A. Carreras

D. Carvajal

T. Alexander-Arnold 83'

D. Alaba

Midfielder

E. Camavinga

A. Guler 74'

Manuel Angel

T. Pitarch Pinar 74'

C. Palacios

J. Cestero

Forward

G. Garcia

F. Mastantuono

K. Mbappe

B. Diaz 69'

Missing players

Manchester City

Defender

J. Gvardiol

Real Madrid

Defender

F. Mendy

E. Militao

R. Asencio

Midfielder

D. Ceballos

Forward

Rodrygo

Manchester City & Real Madrid Squad Analysis

As has been the case for some time, Pep Guardiola cannot call upon the services of Josip Gvardiol, who is out with a broken leg. Rico Lewis is also doubtful, though the hosts do have an otherwise clean bill of health, which means that their Spanish coach can select his strongest XI. Having not started at the weekend, Rayan Cherki and Tijjani Reijnders could come back into the starting XI. Ruben Dias is also expected to return.

Having not started at the weekend, Rayan Cherki and Tijjani Reijnders could come back into the starting XI. Ruben Dias is also expected to return.

Just as they were last week, the visitors will be without Jude Bellingham, who continues to be out with a hamstring injury, while veteran David Alaba is also sidelined, as is Eder Militao. Kylian Mbappe, Ferland Mendy and Rodrygo are also expected to miss out. Having featured as a sub at the weekend, Arda Guler should return to the starting XI.

Most goals and assists

Manchester City

Real Madrid

Top Goalscorer

E. Haaland (8 Goals)

Top Goalscorer

K. Mbappe (15 Goals)

Best assists

T. Reijnders (3 Assists) ,

J. Doku (3 Assists)

Best assists

Vinicius Junior (6 Assists)

Manchester City - Real Madrid Key Points

When the teams met a week ago, Brahim Diaz registered not one but two shots on target.
In the UCL this season, Brahim Diaz is averaging 3.03 shots per 90 minutes.
Brahim Diaz has registered a shot on target in the UCL this season against the likes of Marseille, Juventus and Man City.
In the UCL this season, for Real Madrid, only Kylian Mbappe averages more shots on target per 90 minutes than Brahim Diaz.

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Our Manchester City vs Real Madrid Prediction

As Los Blancos countered with serious purpose against a high-pressing Man City team a week ago, Brahim Diaz found himself getting into some seriously dangerous shooting positions, and the Moroccan made a nuisance of himself by registering two shots on target. Given that the hosts must really go for this, it's easy to see Diaz having a similar effect, and it's also easy to conclude that he's a little generously priced to once again test Gianliugi Donnarumma in the Man City goal.

Our Man City vs Real Madrid Pick: Brahim Diaz 1+ Shots on Target.

Prediction:

Brahim Diaz 1+ Shots on Target

+110

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Manchester City vs Real Madrid - Other Interesting Picks

Real Madrid to Score Over 1.5 Goals

Odds +195

The way in which Los Blancos hurt the Citizens on the break a week ago really is quite hard to ignore. We know that the hosts have little choice but to push forward here, so it's far from difficult to see the counter-offensive visitors doing more damage, so much so that betting on two or more goals for the away team at odds of +195 is a smart move.

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Manchester City win the match

Odds -210

Even though they’ll have a hard time making up a three-goal deficit, Manchester City could still pull off a win in front of their home fans. The Sky Blues will certainly come out firing on all cylinders to reignite some hope in this Champions League round of 16 second leg.

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