Madison Keys vs Varvara Gracheva Prediction & Picks - WTA Rome

WTA - WTA Rome

WTA 6 USA
Madison Keys
5/8/25 12:15
WTA 65 Russia
Varvara Gracheva

Prediction:

 

Madison Keys -5.5 Games

-110
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 by Lou Aguila in Tennis Picks

After her quarterfinal finish in Madrid, Madison Keys of the United States looks to build more momentum as she starts another campaign on Thursday against Varvara Gracheva of France in the second round of the 2025 Italian Open.

Keys, the reigning Australian Open champion, reached the quarterfinal of the Madrid Open after rattling off three straight-set wins over Lucia Bronzetti 6-4 6-3, Anna Kalinskaya 7-5 7-6(3), and Donna Vekic 6-2 6-3. In the round of 8, Keys faced former world No.1 Iga Swiatek for the first time since beating her in the semifinal of the Australian Open in January. The American stormed to a 6-0 win in the first set, but the Pole turned the tables around in the next two sets to complete another come-from-behind win.

Gracheva pummeled Ajla Tomljanovic of Australia 6-3 6-4 to end her two-match losing streak. Gracheva landed 75 percent of her first serves, claiming 31 points out of 50 chances. It has been a challenging year for the Russian-born Gracheva, who is 8-12 on the tour this season.

Madison Keys vs Varvara Gracheva Form

Madison Keys and Varvara Gracheva Latest Matches

Madison Keys Latest matches
W L W W W L
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Apr 30, 2025 - WTA Mutua Madrid Open

Madison Keys
1 :  2
Iga Swiatek

Apr 29, 2025 - WTA Mutua Madrid Open

Madison Keys
2 :  0
Donna Vekić

Apr 26, 2025 - WTA Mutua Madrid Open

Madison Keys
2 :  0
Anna Kalinskaya

Apr 24, 2025 - WTA Mutua Madrid Open

Madison Keys
2 :  0
Lucia Bronzetti

Apr 3, 2025 - WTA Charleston Open

Anna Kalinskaya
2 :  0
Madison Keys

Apr 1, 2025 - WTA Charleston Open

Caroline Dolehide
0 :  2
Madison Keys
Varvara Gracheva Latest matches
W L W L L W
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Defeats

3/6 (50%)

May 7, 2025 - WTA Rome

Varvara Gracheva
2 :  0
Ajla Tomljanovic

Apr 22, 2025 - WTA Mutua Madrid Open

Lulu Sun
2 :  1
Varvara Gracheva

Apr 17, 2025 - WTA Rouen

Jessica Bouzas Maneiro
2 :  0
Varvara Gracheva

Apr 15, 2025 - WTA Rouen

Varvara Gracheva
2 :  0
Sonay Kartal

Apr 2, 2025 - WTA Charleston Open

Varvara Gracheva
0 :  2
Elise Mertens

Mar 31, 2025 - WTA Charleston Open

Harriet Dart
1 :  2
Varvara Gracheva
Compare Madison Keys and Varvara Gracheva with our comparison tool.

Madison Keys - Varvara Gracheva Key Points

  1. Madison Keys reached the quarterfinals of the 2025 Madrid Open.
  2. Madison Keys is 23-5 on the 2025 WTA season.
  3. Varvara Gracheva defeated Ajla Tomljanovic 6-3, 6-4 in the first round of the 2025 Italian Open.
  4. Varvara Gracheva is 8-12 on the 2025 WTA season.

Our Madison Keys vs Varvara Gracheva Prediction

Without an inkling of a doubt, Madison Keys will walk out of Thursday’s match against Varvara Gracheva as the winner. Keys has gained momentum and an important lesson during her campaign in Madrid, which would prove valuable as she prepares for the competition at Roland Garros. Gracheva deserves some credit for gutting out a win over Tomljanovic. Still, the Frenchwoman’s journey in Rome is just about it because I expect her to lose convincingly to much more experienced and motivated Keys in their second-round clash. Our betting prediction for Madison Keys vs. Varvara Gracheva: Madison Keys -5.5 Games

Prediction:

 

Madison Keys -5.5 Games

-110
$1500 offered for betting!

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Madison Keys vs Varvara Gracheva Picks