Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins Prediction & Picks - NFL

USA - NFL

Los Angeles Chargers
10/12/25 13:00
Miami Dolphins

Prediction:

 

Over 44.5

+102
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 by Erik Gibbs | in NFL Picks

A Sunday afternoon matchup features the Los Angeles Chargers and the Miami Dolphins, two teams searching for direction as the season reaches a critical stretch. The Chargers are still reeling from a 34–28 home loss to Washington, where quarterback Justin Herbert endured his toughest outing of the year, throwing for just 166 yards—his lowest total of the season. Making matters worse, rookie running back Omarion Hampton, the focal point of the offense, suffered an ankle injury that will send him to injured reserve.

With the offensive line also dealing with multiple injuries, head coach Sean McVay is preparing to use a committee approach in the backfield. Analysts caution fantasy players and bettors alike not to overvalue either Kimani Vidal or Hassan Haskins, given the Chargers’ struggles up front—they rank 26th in yards before contact and 29th in points per drive. Haskins’ only clear advantage over Vidal lies in his special teams role. If the ground game fails to gain traction, Los Angeles could explore signing a veteran running back to stabilize the offense.

On the other side, the Miami Dolphins enter at 1–4 after suffering a heartbreaking 27–24 loss to Charlotte. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa continues to produce, throwing for 10 touchdowns against four interceptions, but the defense has been unable to hold up its end. With Tyreek Hill still nursing a knee injury, Tagovailoa has leaned heavily on Jaylen Waddle and explosive rookie De’Von Achane. Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio’s unit was gashed last week by Panthers running back Rico Dowdle, and now they must contend with a rested Herbert looking to rebound.

Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins Form

Table

Teams % P W D L
9
Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers
0.667 6 4 0 2
31
Miami Dolphins
Miami Dolphins
0.167 6 1 0 5

Los Angeles Chargers and Miami Dolphins Latest Matches

Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers Latest matches
L W W W L L
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

3/6 (50%)

Oct 5, 2025 - NFL

Washington Commanders
27 :  10
Los Angeles Chargers

Sep 28, 2025 - NFL

Los Angeles Chargers
18 :  21
New York Giants

Sep 21, 2025 - NFL

Denver Broncos
20 :  23
Los Angeles Chargers

Sep 15, 2025 - NFL

Los Angeles Chargers
20 :  9
Las Vegas Raiders

Sep 5, 2025 - NFL

Kansas City Chiefs
21 :  27
Los Angeles Chargers

Jan 11, 2025 - NFL

Los Angeles Chargers
12 :  32
Houston Texans
L L W W W L
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

3/6 (50%)

Oct 5, 2025 - NFL

Washington Commanders
27 :  10
Los Angeles Chargers

Sep 21, 2025 - NFL

Denver Broncos
20 :  23
Los Angeles Chargers

Sep 5, 2025 - NFL

Kansas City Chiefs
21 :  27
Los Angeles Chargers

Dec 19, 2024 - NFL

Denver Broncos
27 :  34
Los Angeles Chargers

Dec 15, 2024 - NFL

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
40 :  17
Los Angeles Chargers

Nov 25, 2024 - NFL

Baltimore Ravens
30 :  23
Los Angeles Chargers
L W W L W L
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

3/6 (50%)

Sep 28, 2025 - NFL

Los Angeles Chargers
18 :  21
New York Giants

Sep 15, 2025 - NFL

Los Angeles Chargers
20 :  9
Las Vegas Raiders

Jan 11, 2025 - NFL

Los Angeles Chargers
12 :  32
Houston Texans

Jan 5, 2025 - NFL

Los Angeles Chargers
34 :  20
Las Vegas Raiders

Dec 28, 2024 - NFL

Los Angeles Chargers
40 :  7
New England Patriots

Dec 8, 2024 - NFL

Los Angeles Chargers
17 :  19
Kansas City Chiefs
Miami Dolphins
Miami Dolphins Latest matches
L L L L W L
Victories

1/6 (17%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

5/6 (83%)

Oct 5, 2025 - NFL

Miami Dolphins
24 :  27
Carolina Panthers

Sep 29, 2025 - NFL

New York Jets
21 :  27
Miami Dolphins

Sep 18, 2025 - NFL

Miami Dolphins
21 :  31
Buffalo Bills

Sep 14, 2025 - NFL

New England Patriots
33 :  27
Miami Dolphins

Sep 7, 2025 - NFL

Miami Dolphins
8 :  33
Indianapolis Colts

Jan 5, 2025 - NFL

Miami Dolphins
20 :  32
New York Jets
W W W W L W
Victories

5/6 (83%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Sep 29, 2025 - NFL

New York Jets
21 :  27
Miami Dolphins

Sep 14, 2025 - NFL

New England Patriots
33 :  27
Miami Dolphins

Dec 22, 2024 - NFL

San Francisco 49ers
17 :  29
Miami Dolphins

Dec 8, 2024 - NFL

New York Jets
26 :  32
Miami Dolphins

Nov 24, 2024 - NFL

New England Patriots
15 :  34
Miami Dolphins

Nov 17, 2024 - NFL

Las Vegas Raiders
19 :  34
Miami Dolphins
L W L L L L
Victories

1/6 (17%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

5/6 (83%)

Oct 5, 2025 - NFL

Miami Dolphins
24 :  27
Carolina Panthers

Sep 18, 2025 - NFL

Miami Dolphins
21 :  31
Buffalo Bills

Sep 7, 2025 - NFL

Miami Dolphins
8 :  33
Indianapolis Colts

Jan 5, 2025 - NFL

Miami Dolphins
20 :  32
New York Jets

Dec 29, 2024 - NFL

Miami Dolphins
20 :  3
Cleveland Browns

Dec 15, 2024 - NFL

Miami Dolphins
12 :  20
Houston Texans

Los Angeles Chargers against Miami Dolphins : Head to Head (H2H)

Dec 11, 2022 - NFL

Miami Dolphins
17 :  23
Los Angeles Chargers

Los Angeles Chargers - Miami Dolphins Key Points

  1. The Over is 11-0 in the Dolphins’ last 11 games on the East Coast
  2. The Over is 6-0 in the last 6 Sunday games at Hard Rock Stadium
  3. The Dolphins are 0-10 in their last 10 games when underdogs vs. AFC teams
  4. The Chargers are 4-0 in their last 4 games following a home loss

Our Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins Prediction

Miami’s defensive issues are compounded by injuries. Linebacker Tyrel Dodson remains in concussion protocol after a head injury in Week 5, and his availability is uncertain. Cornerback Cornell Armstrong, dealing with a hamstring issue, is expected to miss at least a couple more games, leaving Miami’s secondary vulnerable.

Oddsmakers initially set the Chargers as 5.5-point favorites, but that line has since dropped to -4. Projections call for a Los Angeles victory; however, with Hampton sidelined and the offensive line in flux, many bettors are taking Miami and the points, confident that head coach Mike McDaniel’s offense can keep things competitive.

Herbert will rely heavily on Keenan Allen and Quentin Johnston to exploit Miami’s struggling pass defense. If the Dolphins’ defensive breakdowns continue, this contest could easily turn into a high-scoring affair. Despite Los Angeles being favored on the moneyline, the injury situation has shifted momentum slightly toward the underdog, making Miami to cover an appealing play for bettors expecting another close finish. Our prediction for Los Angeles Chargers vs. Miami Dolphins: Over 44.5 points.

Prediction:

 

Over 44.5

+102
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Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins Picks