ATP - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
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by Lou Aguila in ATP Mutua Madrid Open Picks
Frances Tiafoe of the United States will vie for a place in the quarterfinal of the 2025 Madrid Masters on Wednesday when he goes up against Matteo Arnaldi of Italy at Arantxa Sanchez Stadium.
Tiafoe proceeded to the round of 16 following a clinical 6-3, 6-3 win over Alexandre Muller of France. After winning 89 percent of his first serves in the win over Luciano Darderi of Italy 7-5 3-1 ret., the American continued to serve well in the first round, winning 87 percent of his first serves while denying Muller any chance of securing a service break.
After stunning Novak Djokovic 6-3 6-4 in the second round, Arnaldi vanquished Damir Dzumhur of Bosnia and Herzegovina 6-3, 6-4 to reach the round of 16 at Madrid. Arnaldi held all his serves again in the match against Dzumhur, capturing 31 points off his first serves and 21 off his second. He also scored two key breakpoint conversions that gave him enough separations to pull away from his Bosnian foe.
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Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Form
Frances Tiafoe and Matteo Arnaldi Latest Matches
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
Apr 29, 2025 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
Apr 26, 2025 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
Apr 15, 2025 - ATP Barcelona
Apr 9, 2025 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Apr 8, 2025 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Apr 6, 2025 - ATP Houston
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
Apr 28, 2025 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
Apr 26, 2025 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
Apr 24, 2025 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
Apr 14, 2025 - ATP Barcelona
Apr 6, 2025 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Mar 22, 2025 - ATP Miami
Frances Tiafoe against Matteo Arnaldi : Head to Head (H2H)
Jul 1, 2024 - ATP Wimbledon Championships
Frances Tiafoe - Matteo Arnaldi Key Points
- Frances Tiafoe defeated Alexandre Muller 6-3, 6-3 in the third round of the 2025 Madrid Open.
- Frances Tiafoe has a 62.8 percent win rate on clay
- Matteo Arnaldi defeated Damir Dzumhur 6-3, 6-4 in the third round of the 2025 Madrid Open.
- Matteo Arnaldi has a 66 percent win rate on clay.
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Our Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Prediction
Fearless Forecast: Matteo Arnaldi sneaks past Frances Tiafoe to reach the quarterfinals.
This kind of match is hard to pick a winner, mainly because both players are on a roll, and this will be the first time the two play each other on clay. Although Tiafoe already scored a win over Arnaldi 6-7(5) 2-6 6-1 6-3 6-3 in Round 1 of the 2024 Wimbledon Open, the playing conditions on clay differ from those on grass. Honestly, I am leaning towards Arnaldi at -2.5 games because he’s the one who eliminated Novak Djokovic from this tournament. The Italian has also held 100 percent of serves in his last two matches, which is always an important aspect in winning to clay-court matches. Our betting prediction for Frances Tiafoe vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Matteo Arnaldi -2.5 Games.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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