Felix Auger Aliassime vs Jannik Sinner Prediction & Picks - ATP Monte Carlo Masters

Prediction published on 4/10/26, 4:42 AM  by Lou Aguila | Modified on 4/13/26 at 3:42 AM in ATP Monte Carlo Masters Picks

Fresh off a surgical win over Casper Ruud, Felix Auger-Aliassime might have a decent chance to cover the spread at +5.5 games against the heavy favorite Jannik Sinner in the quarterfinals of the 2026 Monte Carlo Masters.

Jannik Sinner’s streak of straight-set wins ended at 13 after dropping the second set in a still convincing win over Tomas Machac 6-1, 6-7, 6-3. After conceding only one game in the first set, Sinner came short of completing a comeback from a 2-5 hole, bowing to Machac in the tiebreaker of the second set. Meanwhile, Felix Auger-Aliassime continued his strong form on clay this year, salvaging a signature win over Casper Ruud 7-5, 2-2 in the third round.

Matchup: Jannik Sinner is 4-3 vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime, winning the last four matchups. The Canadian demolished Sinner 6-1, 6-2 in their first and only clay-court meeting in their rivalry at the 2022 Madrid Open.

Hot on the Board: Felix Auger-Aliassime is a +600 underdog and -115 on the +5.5-game spread line. A -1200 moneyline favorite, Sinner offers a reasonable -125 price if he wins by six games against the Canadian. The over/under is set at 19.5 games, as Caesars bookmakers anticipate another speedy win by Sinner.